Special Marine Warning 95, NWS Key West, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
509 AM EDT Sun Jul 11 2021

.DISCUSSION...
The airmass over the Florida Keys has moistened significantly over
the past 24 hours, which has helped with shower development over
the Florida Keys and coastal waters. KBYX is detecting scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms over the offshore Gulf near the
Dry Tortugas and across the Straits of Florida. An expansive
surface high pressure centered over the Atlantic is currently
supporting moderate breezes across the area. Marine observations
range from 9 to 13 knots across the nearshore coastal waters. Looking
aloft, an upper- level low is causing broad troughing across our
area which is helping to keep any inhibition at bay. With little
to no inhibition and ample CAPE, scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms will likely continue through the day. Slightly
drier air looks to move in this afternoon, which will help lessen
the chance of showers in the afternoon to evening hours. Temperatures
are near 80 degrees and are expected to reach near 90 today.

As the aforementioned surface high continues to build into our
area, the pressure gradient will tighten and winds will increase,
remaining elevated through Tuesday night. This increase in winds
will also coincide with a TUTT cell, currently located over the
Bahamas, migrating closer to Florida. Above normal rain and
thunder chances will accompany this feature as it lingers around
the east coast of Florida and continues to advect in moisture and
provide a source of lift. As the TUTT cell moves northward on
Monday night, it will lose its influence on our weather. A remnant
wave will then push through on Tuesday, bringing another slug of
moisture and lift with it. This will allow for one last day of
higher rain and thunder chances across the island chain. After
this swiftly passes through the area, ridging will build back into
the region and rain chances will drop back to near climatology
for the extended forecast. Temperatures will remain near normal
for this time of year, with highs near 90 degrees and lows near 80
degrees. Dewpoints will remain in the mid 70s.

&&

.MARINE...
No watches, warnings, or advisories are in effect for Florida Keys
coastal waters. From synopsis, Subtropical high pressure centered
over the North Atlantic Ocean will build westward across the
Florida Peninsula today through Tuesday, resulting in freshening
east to southeast breezes in the Keys. Above average rain and
thunder chances will persist through Tuesday night, and winds and
seas will be higher in and near in these scattered showers and
thunderstorms. A decrease to mainly moderate breezes is expected
on Tuesday night.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions should prevail at the EYW and MTH terminals through
Sunday evening. Scattered showers will be in the vicinity of the
terminals during the morning hours and perhaps into the early
afternoon, but should decrease later in the afternoon as a somewhat
drier airmass moves into the Keys from the east. Short periods of
MVFR conditions will be possible at either terminal through midday,
but confidence in occurrence or timing is too low to include
explicitly in the TAFs at this time. Surface winds will remain
generally from the east at 9 to 14 knots.

&&

.CLIMATE...
At Key West, July 11, 2015 marked the end of 28 consecutive days
with low temperatures of 80 degrees or warmer, the longest stretch
on record. 2020 made a run for this record, but fell short by just
2 days, ending a 27-day stretch on July 14th.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

Public/Marine/Fire...NB
Aviation/Nowcasts....Jacobson

Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
www.facebook.com/nwskeywest
www.twitter.com/nwskeywest

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Key West FL
429 AM EDT Sun Jul 11 2021

FLZ076>078-GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075-120830-
Monroe Upper Keys-Monroe Middle Keys-Monroe Lower Keys-
Florida Bay including Barnes Sound, Blackwater Sound, and
Buttonwood Sound-
Bayside and Gulf side from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile
Bridge-
Gulf waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee 20 to 60 NM out
and beyond 5 fathoms-
Gulf of Mexico including Dry Tortugas and Rebecca Shoal Channel-
Gulf of Mexico from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to Halfmoon
Shoal out to 5 Fathoms-
Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef to Craig Key out to the reef-
Hawk Channel from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile Bridge out
to the reef-
Hawk Channel from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to Halfmoon Shoal
out to the reef-
Straits of Florida from Ocean Reef to Craig Key out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile
Bridge out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to south of
Halfmoon Shoal out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Halfmoon Shoal to 20 NM west of Dry
Tortugas out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Ocean Reef to Craig Key 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile
Bridge 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to south of
Halfmoon Shoal 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from Halfmoon Shoal to 20 NM west of Dry
Tortugas 20 to 60 NM out-
429 AM EDT Sun Jul 11 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Florida Keys and
adjacent coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Scattered thunderstorms are expected across portions of the
Florida Keys and adjacent coastal waters today and tonight. The
primary thunderstorm hazards will be lightning strikes and gusty
winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A Small Craft Advisory may be required on Monday night for
portions of the Florida Keys coastal waters.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected Monday through Tuesday
night and isolated thunderstorms are expected Wednesday through
Saturday. The primary thunderstorms hazards will be lightning
strikes and gusty winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

NB