Special Marine Warning 69, NWS Key West, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1025 PM EDT Sun Jun 27 2021

.DISCUSSION...
It has been another active afternoon and evening across the
Florida Keys and surrounding waters, especially the Florida
Straits. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms moved
mainly westward at 10 to 15 knots. The storm activity was more
prominent in the early afternoon and has gradually diminished as
the evening progressed. However, storms are currently increasing
over the eastern Florida Straits. The storms have remained below
warning category. Southwest Florida flared up in the afternoon
hours, sending prominent outflow boundaries on a westward track
over the offshore waters of mainland Monroe. Meanwhile, the
outflows eminating from the thunderstorms in western Cuba quickly
faltered over the Straits.

The regional infrared satellite imagery depicts an upper level
low over the western Gulf of Mexico causing a large area of
cloudiness. Also evident on satellite imagery is the drier airmass
located to the east of Florida, resulting in only intermittent,
shallow convection over the NW Bahamas. Temperatures in the island
communities are in the lower 80s and the dew points are in the
mid 70s.

The 00Z KEY sounding still showed a moist profile and little
inhibition, but there were signs of the drier airmass to our east.
A wedge of dry air was present between 460 and 660 mb, which was
completely absent in the morning sounding. The precipitable water
(PW) value has decreased to 1.87 inches, compared to over 2.10
inches this morning and last night. The current PW is just below
the 75th percentile for this time of the year. Despite that the
environmental conditions are a bit drier, the atmospheric profile
remains favorable for the formation of scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms during the overnight hours.

Overall, the forecast is on track and no changes are neccesary.
POPs are retained at 40 percent for the overnight hours. This is
consistent with the latest MOS guidance and CAM models.
Temperatures will settle down to near 80 degrees Fahrenheit.
Moderate easterly breezes will continue to amuse the Florida Keys
and surrounding waters.

&&

.MARINE...
There are no watches, warnings, or advisories currently in effect
for the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. From synopsis, high
pressure centered over the western North Atlantic will maintain
moderate east to southeast breezes over the next few days. Breezes
will diminish by Wednesday or Wednesday night as high pressure
sags to the south and weakens across Florida.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail at both the Key West and Marathon
terminals overnight and into tomorrow morning. Isolated showers are
possible overnight, with shower coverage increasing tomorrow
afternoon. Surface winds will be out of the east near 10 knots.

&&

.CLIMATE...
On this day in 1961, a daily record rainfall of 3.30 inches was
recorded in Key West. Rainfall records date back to 1871.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  80  87  80  87 / 40 40 40 50
Marathon  80  88  80  88 / 40 40 40 50

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

Public/Marine/Fire...SDR
Aviation/Nowcasts....Devanas
Data Acquisition.....JAM

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Key West FL
601 AM EDT Sun Jun 27 2021

FLZ076>078-GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075-281015-
Monroe Upper Keys-Monroe Middle Keys-Monroe Lower Keys-
Florida Bay including Barnes Sound, Blackwater Sound, and
Buttonwood Sound-
Bayside and Gulf side from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile
Bridge-
Gulf waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee 20 to 60 NM out
and beyond 5 fathoms-
Gulf of Mexico including Dry Tortugas and Rebecca Shoal Channel-
Gulf of Mexico from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to Halfmoon
Shoal out to 5 Fathoms-
Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef to Craig Key out to the reef-
Hawk Channel from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile Bridge out
to the reef-
Hawk Channel from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to Halfmoon Shoal
out to the reef-
Straits of Florida from Ocean Reef to Craig Key out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile
Bridge out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to south of
Halfmoon Shoal out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Halfmoon Shoal to 20 NM west of Dry
Tortugas out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Ocean Reef to Craig Key 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile
Bridge 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to south of
Halfmoon Shoal 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from Halfmoon Shoal to 20 NM west of Dry
Tortugas 20 to 60 NM out-
601 AM EDT Sun Jun 27 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Florida Keys and
adjacent coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Isolated thunderstorms are expected. The primary thunderstorm
hazard will be lightning strikes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected. The primary
thunderstorm hazard will be lightning strikes.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.