Special Marine Warning 52, NWS Key West, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
230 PM EDT Wed Jun 16 2021

.DISCUSSION...
Skies are mostly cloudy across the Florida Keys island chain.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms were plentiful late this
morning and afternoon, especially in the vicinity of Key West. For
a while, it was appearing that a period of excessive rainfall was
even possible in Key West due to training storms. In fact, radar-
derived precipitation totals were between 3 and 4 inches in the
vicinity of the Eastern Dry Rocks. Luckily, a boundary helped to
push the activity west of the island, squelching any possible
flooding concerns. Despite the earlier aforementioned activity,
most island communities are currently dry. However, there are
likely a number of residual boundaries in place across the CWA,
especially in the Bayside and Gulfside coastal waters. These
boundaries will likely interact with other boundaries that will
push southwestward from the Florida Mainland this evening as well
as proliferating convection in the vicinity of Cuba. For these
reasons, it seems appropriate to retain chances for both rain and
thunder through the overnight period.

Thereafter, much drier air appears to push through the island
chain from the southeast. In tandem, a ridge of high pressure will
build over the North Atlantic, with the ridge axis extending over
the Florida Mainland. This will result in below normal rain
chances, freshening winds, and near-nil thunder chances through at
least the beginning part of next week. Temperatures and dew points
will remain near or above normal for this extended period, with
high temperatures near 90 (possibly eclipsing in the lower 90s),
low temperatures near 80, and dewpoints in the mid-70s. Summer has
arrived in the Keys.

&&

.MARINE...
There are no watches, warnings, or advisories currently in effect
for the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. Periods of unsettled
weather are expected to continue overnight under gentle breezes.
A ridge of high pressure will build into the Florida Keys by
tomorrow morning. Breezes will freshen, becoming moderate to
occasionally fresh tomorrow afternoon through at least Monday.
Small Craft Exercise Caution Headlines may need to be inserted for
a period Friday night or Saturday for at least portions of the
coastal waters. Dry air will push into the marine zones through
this period, resulting in near- or below- normal rain chances and
near-zero chances for thunder.

&&

.AVIATION...
Passing showers and thunderstorms are possible at either the Key
West or Marathon terminals through the evening hours, decreasing in
coverage overnight. The showers and storms will be moving generally
to the north (from the south) near 10 knots. This may result in
periods of MVFR or IFR conditions lasting around 15 minutes. Because
of the uncertainty in the timing and location of the showers and
storms, the probability is represented by vicinity showers through
03Z at both terminals. Amendments to the terminal forecasts may be
necessary if conditions warrant.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

Public/Marine/Fire...BT
Aviation/Nowcasts....Devanas
Data Acquisition.....DR

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Key West FL
359 AM EDT Wed Jun 16 2021

FLZ076>078-GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075-170800-
Monroe Upper Keys-Monroe Middle Keys-Monroe Lower Keys-
Florida Bay including Barnes Sound, Blackwater Sound, and
Buttonwood Sound-
Bayside and Gulf side from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile
Bridge-
Gulf waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee 20 to 60 NM out
and beyond 5 fathoms-
Gulf of Mexico including Dry Tortugas and Rebecca Shoal Channel-
Gulf of Mexico from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to Halfmoon
Shoal out to 5 Fathoms-
Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef to Craig Key out to the reef-
Hawk Channel from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile Bridge out
to the reef-
Hawk Channel from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to Halfmoon Shoal
out to the reef-
Straits of Florida from Ocean Reef to Craig Key out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile
Bridge out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to south of
Halfmoon Shoal out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Halfmoon Shoal to 20 NM west of Dry
Tortugas out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Ocean Reef to Craig Key 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile
Bridge 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to south of
Halfmoon Shoal 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from Halfmoon Shoal to 20 NM west of Dry
Tortugas 20 to 60 NM out-
359 AM EDT Wed Jun 16 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Florida Keys and
adjacent coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Isolated thunderstorms will increase to scattered thunderstorms
this afternoon and tonight. The primary thunderstorm hazards
include dangerous cloud to surface lightning strikes and possibly
a few wind gusts to near 40 mph, especially this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

Isolated thunderstorms are possible Thursday and again starting
next Tuesday. The primary thunderstorm hazards will be cloud to
surface lightning strikes and locally gusty winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.