Special Marine Warning 39, NWS Key West, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
356 AM EDT Fri May 7 2021

.DISCUSSION...
Temperatures across the island chain mostly range from near 80
degrees to the lower 80s. Some slight radiational cooling is
occurring on the larger islands, with Big Pine and our backyard
both near 77 degrees. Temperatures will peak in the upper 80s to
near 90 degrees this afternoon, so the Florida Keys are in for
another above average, very warm day. Luckily, we will have a
little bit of a reprieve from these scorching temperatures thanks
to a late season cold front pushing through this morning. Marine
observations show light to gentle breezes across our nearshore
waters. Winds will remain light and variable prior to the arrival
of the front, the shift to the northwest and increase after it
moves through the area. Currently, satellite imagery depicts
mostly clear skies and KBYX is echo-free aside from one small
shower located just south of the Middle Keys. CIMSS MIMIC Layer
Precipitable Water and the 00Z KEY RAOB have the Keys in an area
of near normal PWATs (~1.4 inches) for this time of year.

The aforementioned late season cold front will bring dewpoints
down into the lower to mid 60s, which will feel much nicer than
the lower to mid 70 dewpoints we have been feeling this past week.
The drop in dewpoints and the slight drop in temperatures will
unfortunately be brief. High pressure will build back into the
area behind the front and shift winds back to the northeast
tomorrow, then to the east to southeast by Sunday. This will allow
temperatures to quickly return to above average and bring
dewpoints back into the lower 70s. Winds will peak and lull over
the next few days. A gradual decrease in winds is expected
starting on Monday. The region will become entrenched in deep
layer ridging through at least next week, which will promote large
scale subsidence. Forecast soundings also show dry air settling
into the area, so this will also help to limit rain chances. This
time of year is generally when rainy season picks up, however, it
appears to be off to a slow start. PoPs through the forecast
range from near nil to 20%.

&&

.MARINE...
There are no watches, warnings, or advisories currently in effect
for the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. From synopsis, A late
season front will cross the Florida Keys this morning, with fresh
northwest breezes expected for several hours this evening. High
pressure will settle in across the southeastern U.S. and western
Atlantic Saturday with winds clocking around to the east. Breezes
freshen Saturday night, peaking Sunday night, before gradually
slackening starting Monday through Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail at the EYW and MTH terminals through
Friday evening. Isolated to scattered showers with associated MVFR
conditions may develop along a leftover boundary near the Keys
island chain during the predawn or morning hours, but the chances of
direct impacts to the terminals are too low to mention in the TAFs
at this time. Otherwise, expect only few to scattered cumulus around
2500 feet during the day. Light and variable winds early this
morning will become NW at 5 to 10 knots by late morning, then
increase to 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots Friday evening.

&&

.CLIMATE...
On this day in 1937, the daily record rainfall of 4.08" was
recorded in Key West. Rainfall records date back to 1871.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

Public/Marine/Fire...NB
Aviation/Nowcasts....Jacobson

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Key West FL
358 AM EDT Fri May 7 2021

FLZ076>078-GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075-080800-
Monroe Upper Keys-Monroe Middle Keys-Monroe Lower Keys-
Florida Bay including Barnes Sound, Blackwater Sound, and
Buttonwood Sound-
Bayside and Gulf side from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile
Bridge-
Gulf waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee 20 to 60 NM out
and beyond 5 fathoms-
Gulf of Mexico including Dry Tortugas and Rebecca Shoal Channel-
Gulf of Mexico from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to Halfmoon
Shoal out to 5 Fathoms-
Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef to Craig Key out to the reef-
Hawk Channel from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile Bridge out
to the reef-
Hawk Channel from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to Halfmoon Shoal
out to the reef-
Straits of Florida from Ocean Reef to Craig Key out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile
Bridge out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to south of
Halfmoon Shoal out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Halfmoon Shoal to 20 NM west of Dry
Tortugas out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Ocean Reef to Craig Key 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile
Bridge 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to south of
Halfmoon Shoal 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from Halfmoon Shoal to 20 NM west of Dry
Tortugas 20 to 60 NM out-
358 AM EDT Fri May 7 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Florida Keys and
adjacent coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A Small Craft Advisory may be required for portions of our coastal
waters tonight. Otherwise, no hazardous weather is expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A Small Craft Advisory may be required for portions of our coastal
waters Saturday and Sunday night. Otherwise, no hazardous weather
is expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

NB