Special Marine Warning 333, NWS Key West, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1056 AM EST Tue Dec 21 2021

.DISCUSSION...
A 999 mb low pressure system moved into Sarasota and Charlotte
Counties this morning, about 5 mb lower than model analyses.
Surface observations measured hurricane-force wind gusts near
where the low made landfall. Across the Keys, the dry air we noted
yesterday south of Cuba has limited the vigor of the prefrontal
trough and squall line slowly moving east across the Keys.
Initially strong storms to the west of Dry Tortugas transitioned
into a stratiform mass as the line neared the Keys. In the past
couple of hours, convection has returned to the Straits of Florida
as the deep and moist southwesterlies overcome the narrow tongue
of dry air which plagued the line earlier this morning. The
forecast calls for 80% rain/thunder chances through the afternoon,
with the main line pushing south of the island chain late this
afternoon. Southwest to west breezes will shift to the northwest
this afternoon as cold air advection pivots into the Keys.
Temperatures have peaked in the lower to mid 70s, and will stay
steady or fall a few degrees. No changes needed or planned.

&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the coastal waters of
the Florida Keys due to southwest to west winds 20 to 25 knots.
From synopsis, fresh to strong southwesterly breezes will turn to
the west to northwest this afternoon. Before the winds shift,
most island communities can expect numerous squalls and
potentially strong thunderstorms. Cooler, drier air and north to
northwest breezes are expected on Wednesday behind the front.
Breezes will diminish and seas will subside Thursday through
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
A frontal boundary will bring southwest to west winds gusts of 25
to 30 knots to both terminals through the day. Confidence in
lightning has decreased, so have removed any mention of VCTS for
the time being. TEMPOs are currently in place to account for the
shower activity that is beginning to spread from west to east
across the island chain. Extensive periods of sub-VFR conditions
are possible through the afternoon as the large cluster of showers
associated with the front continues to impact the terminals.

&&

.CLIMATE...
On this day in 1901, the daily record cold high temperature of
58F and daily record low temperature of 50F were both recorded in
Key West. Temperature records for Key West date back to 1872.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  78  69  75  64 / 90 30 10 10
Marathon  79  68  75  63 / 80 30 10 10

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory for GMZ031>035-
042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

Public/Marine/Fire...CLR
Aviation/Nowcasts....NB
Data Acquisition.....SMS

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Key West FL
512 AM EST Tue Dec 21 2021

FLZ076>078-GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075-221015-
Monroe Upper Keys-Monroe Middle Keys-Monroe Lower Keys-
Florida Bay including Barnes Sound, Blackwater Sound, and
Buttonwood Sound-
Bayside and Gulf side from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile
Bridge-
Gulf waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee 20 to 60 NM out
and beyond 5 fathoms-
Gulf of Mexico including Dry Tortugas and Rebecca Shoal Channel-
Gulf of Mexico from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to Halfmoon
Shoal out to 5 Fathoms-
Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef to Craig Key out to the reef-
Hawk Channel from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile Bridge out
to the reef-
Hawk Channel from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to Halfmoon Shoal
out to the reef-
Straits of Florida from Ocean Reef to Craig Key out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile
Bridge out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to south of
Halfmoon Shoal out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Halfmoon Shoal to 20 NM west of Dry
Tortugas out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Ocean Reef to Craig Key 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile
Bridge 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to south of
Halfmoon Shoal 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from Halfmoon Shoal to 20 NM west of Dry
Tortugas 20 to 60 NM out-
512 AM EST Tue Dec 21 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Florida Keys and
adjacent coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
Showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead of an approaching
frontal boundary. Moderate to heavy rain fall is expected and
frequent lightning over the coastal waters and islands. A few
strong to marginally severe thunderstorms may bring brief winds
gust up to 50 mph early this morning. Weather conditions will
begin to improve late tonight as the frontal boundary moves south
of the Keys.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

Dry and fair weather conditions will begin on Wednesday and
continue through the remainder of the long-term period.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
834 AM EST TUE DEC 21 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0811 AM     MARINE TSTM WIND 14 NW KEY WEST          24.72N 81.92W
12/21/2021  M43 MPH          GMZ033             FL   MESONET

            AT 811AM EST A WIND GUST OF 43 MPH, OR 37 KTS, WAS
            OBSERVED BY THE WEATHERFLOW MESONET SITE AT SMITH SHOLE
            LIGHT.

&&

DE SOLO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
957 AM EST TUE DEC 21 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 AM     TSTM WND GST     10 SW KEY WEST          24.46N 81.88W
12/21/2021  M39 MPH          GMZ044             FL   C-MAN STATION

            AT 830 AM EST A WIND GUST OF 39 MPH, OR 34 KTS, WAS
            OBSERVED BY THE C-MAN STATION AT SAND KEY.

0901 AM     TSTM WND GST     14 NW KEY WEST          24.72N 81.91W
12/21/2021  M40 MPH          GMZ033             FL   MESONET

            AT 901 AM EST A WIND GUST OF 40 MPH, OR 35 KTS, WAS
            OBSERVED BY THE WEATHERFLOW MESONET SITE AT SMITH SHOLE
            LIGHT.

&&

DE SOLO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1113 AM EST TUE DEC 21 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1057 AM     MARINE TSTM WIND 4 SE TEATABLE KEY       24.85N 80.62W
12/21/2021  M40 MPH          GMZ042             FL   MESONET

            AT 1057 AM EST A WIND GUST OF 40 MPH, OR 35 KTS, WAS
            OBSERVED BY THE WEATHERFLOW MESONET SITE AT ALLIGATOR
            REEF LIGHT.

&&

DE SOLO

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