Alert archive / Florida / Special Marine Warnings in 2021

Special Marine Warning 235, NWS Key West, FL

October 9, 2021

NWS Key West, FL issued this special marine warning at Oct 9, 2021, 5:07 AM EDT. It was in force for 38 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Oct 9, 2021, 5:07 AM EDT (09:07 UTC)
Expired: Oct 9, 2021, 5:45 AM EDT
In force: 38 min
Issued by: NWS Key West, FL
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 0.0 in
Wind: 34.0 mph

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special marine warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Key West, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special marine warning went out at Oct 8, 10:32 PM EDT, 6 hours 35 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Oct 8, 10:32 PM EDT, 6 hours 35 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1032 PM EDT Fri Oct 8 2021

.DISCUSSION...
Currently - A trough aloft is amplifying as it digs southeastward
across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and Florida. Associated upper
level support is contributing to lower level troughing over the
extreme southeastern United States and a band of showers and
thunderstorms across Central Florida. Closer to home, weak lower
level ridging remains across the Keys and the surface pressure
gradient is supporting light southeasterly breezes. This
evening's sounding indicated fairly dry air and some inhibition
layer centered around 800 mb. This has kept showers in check
through the evening.

Short Term Update - The upper level trough will continue to dig
southeastwards through the overnight period with the trough axis
draped across the extreme southeastern Gulf of Mexico and Central
Florida by morning. A swath of increased lower level moisture
associated with the upper trough will continue to press
southeastward but will remain north of our area overnight. The
lower level ridge and associated lower level dry and stabilizing
layer will hold on across our area. This along with surface flow
being light and primarily out of the southeast should ensure rain
chances will remain slight overnight.

The story becomes much more complicated beyond tonight. The upper
trough will continue to swing southeastward across Florida and
step into the Atlantic late Saturday. This trough will cut off
through the remainder of the weekend and wobble southwestward
across South Florida and the Keys. While the best upper level
support appears to sneak east of our area, the local environment
will experience increasing deep layered moisture and increasing
cyclonic flow above the surface. The surface flow will remain
light as weak troughing/low develops over South Florida. Given
this, rain chances are expected to rise considerably through the
weekend. With that said, uncertainty remains high.

&&

.MARINE...
A weak split ridge across South Florida will maintain light mostly
southeasterly breezes across Keys waters through the overnight
period. Only minor adjustments made in the evening marine update.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail at both MTH and EYW through tomorrow
night. There is a lot of uncertainty in regards to the development
of showers tomorrow. Some guidance has shower activity beginning
tomorrow afternoon, while other guidance leaves us high and dry
through tomorrow evening. There is also the possibility of a reverse
cloud line developing during a short window tomorrow afternoon. Due
to lower confidence in the short-term forecast, have opted not to
include any mention of showers in the TAF at this time. Winds will
be out of the east to southeast at 5 to 8 knots tonight, then are
expected to become variable around 5 knots tomorrow morning.

&&

.CLIMATE...
On this day in 1996, the daily record rainfall of 2.36" was
recorded in Key West. Rainfall records date back to 1871.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.

&&

Public/Marine/Fire...11
Aviation/Nowcasts....NB

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Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 9, 4:13 AM EDT, 54 minutes before

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The office that day

Everything else NWS Key West, FL issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Oct 9, 3:52 AM EDT	Special Marine Warning	KEY		38 min
Oct 9, 4:45 AM EDT	Special Marine Warning	KEY		30 min
Oct 9, 8:31 AM EDT	Coastal Flood Statement	KEY	Monroe	4 days
Oct 9, 5:54 PM EDT	Special Marine Warning	KEY		66 min
Oct 9, 6:58 PM EDT	Special Marine Warning	KEY		50 min

Nearby

Special Marine Warnings in Florida, 2021 Every special marine warning in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.