Special Marine Warning 211, NWS Key West, FL

921 
FZUS72 KKEY 280420
MWSKEY

Marine Weather Statement
National Weather Service Key West FL
1220 AM EDT Sat Aug 28 2021

GMZ073-074-280430-
/O.CAN.KKEY.MA.W.0211.000000T0000Z-210828T0445Z/
1220 AM EDT Sat Aug 28 2021

...THE SPECIAL MARINE WARNING IS CANCELLED...


LAT...LON 2425 8122 2446 8075 2388 8040 2383 8052
      2382 8053 2375 8071
TIME...MOT...LOC 0418Z 139DEG 29KT 2408 8078 

$$

CLR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
639 PM EDT Fri Aug 27 2021

.DISCUSSION...
As of 5 pm, the center of Hurricane Ida was located approximately
200 miles southwest of Key West. Global deterministic and ensemble
model guidance are in remarkable agreement that the tropical
cyclone will continue to track to the northwest into the Gulf of
Mexico tonight through Saturday before making landfall on the Gulf
Coast as a major hurricane on Sunday. Outer rainbands associated
with Ida will continue to pivot through the Florida Keys this
evening and tonight, especially in the vicinity of the Lower Keys.
Any squall will be capable of producing brief very heavy rainfall
and tropical storm force wind gusts. Ida will pull away from the
Florida Keys Saturday. However, the tail of Ida will likely push
an additional band or two of strong showers and thunderstorms
over the island chain during the daytime hours.

Thereafter, a weak ridge of high pressure will build across the
North Atlantic for Sunday into the early part of next week. The
ridge axis is likely to park in the vicinity of the South Florida
Peninsula for this period. With the lack of any major tropical
disturbances and forecast soundings suggesting an extended period
of pretty dry profiles through the depth of the tropopause, will
advertise near- to or slightly below normal PoPs for this period.

&&

.MARINE...
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the southwestern Straits
of Florida west of Halfmoon Shoal Light. A Small Craft Advisory is
in effect for the rest of the Florida Keys coastal waters west of
the Upper Keys. Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines are
advertised for the nearshore and offshore waters of the Upper
Keys. Hurricane Ida will continue to track to the northwest,
passing over western Cuba and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico
tonight, then move into the central Gulf of Mexico on Saturday.
Fresh to strong east to southeast breezes are expected tonight,
with tropical storm force wind gusts likely in fast moving squalls
in the coastal waters off the Lower Keys westward through the Dry
Tortugas. Breezes will slowly slacken on Saturday, with breezes
slackening considerably on Sunday. Gentle east to southeast
breezes and near- to or below normal rain and thunder chances are
expected early next week, as a ridge of high pressure builds
across the Atlantic.

&&

.AVIATION...
While prevailing VFR conditions will persist over both the Key West
and Marathon terminals through this evening and overnight, rapidly
moving showers may result in brief periods of MVFR or even IFR
conditions. The timing and location of these showers is difficult to
predict at this time, so vicinity showers have been included in both
terminal forecasts, and amendments may be required. Surface winds
will be out of the east southeast near 15 knots, with wind gusts
approaching 30 knots at times. However, with showers in the vicinity
winds may not be persistent, and could peak and lull at times. The
strongest winds at both terminals will be during the onset of
showers or squalls.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for GMZ032>035-043-
     044-053-054-073-074.

     Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ055-075.

&&

Public/Marine/Fire...BT
Aviation/Nowcasts....Devanas
Data Acquisition.....DR

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Key West FL
605 AM EDT Fri Aug 27 2021

FLZ076>078-GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075-281030-
Monroe Upper Keys-Monroe Middle Keys-Monroe Lower Keys-
Florida Bay including Barnes Sound, Blackwater Sound, and
Buttonwood Sound-
Bayside and Gulf side from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile
Bridge-
Gulf waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee 20 to 60 NM out
and beyond 5 fathoms-
Gulf of Mexico including Dry Tortugas and Rebecca Shoal Channel-
Gulf of Mexico from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to Halfmoon
Shoal out to 5 Fathoms-
Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef to Craig Key out to the reef-
Hawk Channel from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile Bridge out
to the reef-
Hawk Channel from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to Halfmoon Shoal
out to the reef-
Straits of Florida from Ocean Reef to Craig Key out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile
Bridge out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to south of
Halfmoon Shoal out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Halfmoon Shoal to 20 NM west of Dry
Tortugas out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Ocean Reef to Craig Key 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile
Bridge 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to south of
Halfmoon Shoal 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from Halfmoon Shoal to 20 NM west of Dry
Tortugas 20 to 60 NM out-
605 AM EDT Fri Aug 27 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Florida Keys and
adjacent coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Straits of Florida
west of Halfmoon Shoal where tropical storm conditions are
expected. Tropical storm conditions also remain possible for the
Dry Tortugas and the surrounding coastal waters. A Small Craft
Advisory is in effect for all coastal waters of the Florida Keys
except Florida Bay and the Atlantic-side waters east of Craig Key.
Tropical Storm Ida will make its closest approach this evening
then continue to the northwest into the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico on Saturday. Warnings and advisories will persist through
tonight.

The outer circulation of Ida will build into the Florida Keys this
afternoon and evening, resulting in increased coverage of potent,
thundery squalls. The nastiest weather will be near the center of
circulation, although tropical storm-force wind gusts will be
possible for much of the Florida Keys. Damaging wind gusts up to
55 mph will be possible from the Lower Keys through the Dry
Tortugas.

There is the potential for tornadoes and strong waterspouts this
evening and after midnight as Ida makes its closest approach.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected for portions of the
coastal waters of the Florida Keys on Saturday, with hazardous
marine conditions improving gradually throughout the day as Ida
moves away from the Keys. Scattered thunderstorms will persist in
the wake of Ida on Saturday, with the primary hazards lightning
strikes and strong wind gusts.

For Saturday night through Thursday, isolated thunderstorms will
be possible through the period. The primary hazards will be
lightning strikes and locally gusty winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

CLR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
607 PM EDT FRI AUG 27 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0541 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 14 NW KEY WEST          24.72N 81.92W
08/27/2021  M40 MPH          GMZ033             FL   MESONET

            AN EAST-SOUTHEAST WIND GUST OF 35 KTS, OR 40 MPH, WAS
            RECORDED BY THE WEATHERFLOW MESONET SITE AT SMITH SHOAL
            LIGHT AT 541 PM EDT.

&&

MRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1142 PM EDT FRI AUG 27 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1110 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 10 SW KEY WEST          24.46N 81.88W
08/27/2021  M45.00 MPH       GMZ044             FL   C-MAN STATION

            AN EAST-SOUTHEAST WIND GUST OF 39 KTS, OR 45 MPH, WAS
            RECORDED BY THE SAND KEY C-MAN STATION AT 1110 PM EDT.
            THIS SITE ALSO RECORDED A 1-MINUTE WIND SPEED OF 37 KTS,
            OR 43 MPH, AT 1107 PM.

1120 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 5 WSW BOCA CHICA CHANNE 24.55N 81.79W
08/27/2021  M40.00 MPH       LOWER KEYS IN MONR FL   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            AN EAST-SOUTHEAST WIND GUST OF 35 KTS, OR 40 MPH, WAS
            RECORDED BY THE FLORIDA KEYS NWS RSOIS AROUND 1120 PM
            EDT.

&&

MRR