Special Marine Warning 153, NWS Key West, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1213 AM EDT Sun Aug 15 2021

.DISCUSSION...
Currently - The remnants of Fred lashed across the Florida Keys
and surrounding coastal waters this evening. In an almost cyclical
nature, where one area began to quiet down, the remaining areas
that were dormant came to life. Heavy squalls that raced across
the upper Keys and our eastern waters have now long ago lifted
into southern Florida. Meanwhile, our central and western waters
continue to see convective bands pivoting through. Observations
continue to show that these bands are more still capable of 40
knot winds as they pivot through the area. Highest gust this
evening occurred just before 9pm at the Smith Shoal Light
Weatherflow station with a report of 50 knots. Since then no winds
have reached that magnitude.

BYX radar shows that most of the convection is pivoting along the
periphery of what appears to be a mid level circulation that is
moving northwest across the western portions of the Straits of
Florida. As this circulation continue to trek northwest, expect
additional squalls to develop through the overnight. BYX VWP shows
slight veering through the levels with some speed sheer. As such,
the threat for isolated waterspouts will persist.

CAMs show that a couple of far outer bands will pivot through the
upper Keys, otherwise, much of the rain will shift to our western
half of the CWA and gradually taper through the overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Renewed convection is firing up over mainly the western waters and
quickly racing to the northwest. In the very short term winds
will remain fresh with occasional gusts to around 40 knots in
squalls. Conditions will gradually improve from late tonight into
tomorrow as winds begin to relax in earnest and convective
coverage diminishes. Atlantic ridge will begin to take control of
Keys weather and gentle to moderate southeasterly breezes and a
more normal distribution of showers and thunderstorms will
prevail. Winds will likely fall to their minimum on Tuesday as a
spoke of the ridge builds across the Florida peninsula.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR to MVFR conditions are expected to prevail at EYW terminal
through about 08z with periods of mostly light rain and squalls with
gusts near 35 knots possible with some bands of showers. It is
expected the frequency of gusts over 30 knots and MVFR at EYW will
drop after 08z as some of the rain and gradient wind moves
north/northwest of the island chain. EYW winds should continue to
subside to about 13 knots with fewer gusts after 09-11z. KMTH should
remain mostly VFR with only showers in the vicinity overnight and
winds lowering from 10-15kt gusting 20-25kt to near 10kt gusting 15-
20 kt after 06-09z.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch through late tonight for FLZ076.

GM...Small Craft Advisory for GMZ032>035-043>044-053>055-073>075.

&&

Public/Marine/Fire...LIW
Aviation/Nowcasts....tdestri
Data Acquisition.....DR

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Key West FL
521 AM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021

FLZ076>078-GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075-150930-
Monroe Upper Keys-Monroe Middle Keys-Monroe Lower Keys-
Florida Bay including Barnes Sound, Blackwater Sound, and
Buttonwood Sound-
Bayside and Gulf side from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile
Bridge-
Gulf waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee 20 to 60 NM out
and beyond 5 fathoms-
Gulf of Mexico including Dry Tortugas and Rebecca Shoal Channel-
Gulf of Mexico from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to Halfmoon
Shoal out to 5 Fathoms-
Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef to Craig Key out to the reef-
Hawk Channel from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile Bridge out
to the reef-
Hawk Channel from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to Halfmoon Shoal
out to the reef-
Straits of Florida from Ocean Reef to Craig Key out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile
Bridge out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to south of
Halfmoon Shoal out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Halfmoon Shoal to 20 NM west of Dry
Tortugas out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Ocean Reef to Craig Key 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile
Bridge 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to south of
Halfmoon Shoal 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from Halfmoon Shoal to 20 NM west of Dry
Tortugas 20 to 60 NM out-
521 AM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Florida Keys and
adjacent coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Fred is expected to track near or west of the Dry Tortugas
this evening, then potentially strengthen into a tropical storm
as it pulls away from the Dry Tortugas. Hazards for the Florida
Keys will include flooding rainfall, isolated tornadoes, and
treacherous marine conditions. Thundery squalls will be capable of
localized wind gusts near 45 mph and lightning strikes.
Conditions are not likely to improve until after midnight.

A Flood Watch remains in effect until late tonight. Rainfall
totals of 3 to 5 inches with isolated higher totals will result in
a significant potential for flooding of streets and poor drainage
areas, especially during the times of high tide.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

Isolated thunderstorms will be possible Sunday through Friday.
The primary thunderstorm hazards will be lightning strikes.

The long range forecast for Tropical Storm Grace indicates a
persistent path to the west-northwest through the Greater
Antilles, then the Bahamas, and possibly into portions of the
Florida Keys and South Florida in four to five days. It is still
too early to discuss all of the possible impacts, although
confidence in another round of locally heavy rainfall is
increasing.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

CLR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1022 PM EDT SAT AUG 14 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 10 SW KEY WEST          24.46N 81.89W
08/14/2021  M43 MPH          GMZ044             FL   C-MAN STATION

            AN EAST-SOUTHEAST WIND GUST OF 37 KTS, OR 43 MPH, WAS
            RECORDED BY THE SAND KEY C-MAN STATION AT 1000 PM EDT. IT
            RECORDED A 1-MINUTE WIND SPEED OF 35 KTS, OR 40 MPH, AT
            954 PM EDT.

&&

ROSS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1106 PM EDT SAT AUG 14 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1026 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 4 WSW BOCA CHICA        24.57N 81.76W
08/14/2021  M45.00 MPH       LOWER KEYS IN MONR FL   ASOS

            AN EAST-SOUTHEAST WIND GUST OF 39 KTS, OR 45 MPH, WAS
            RECORDED BY THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT ASOS AT
            1026 PM EDT.

1040 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 10 SW KEY WEST          24.46N 81.89W
08/14/2021  M47.00 MPH       GMZ044             FL   C-MAN STATION

            A SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WIND GUST OF 41 KTS, OR 47 MPH, WAS
            RECORDED BY THE SAND KEY C-MAN STATION AT 1040 PM EDT.
            THIS STATION ALSO RECORDED A 1-MINUTE WIND SPEED OF 37
            KTS, OR 43 MPH, AT 1038 PM EDT.

&&

ROSS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1119 PM EDT SAT AUG 14 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1026 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 14 NW KEY WEST          24.71N 81.93W
08/14/2021  M51 MPH          GMZ033             FL   MESONET

            AN EAST-SOUTHEAST WIND GUST OF 44 KTS, OR 51 MPH, WAS
            RECORDED BY THE WEATHERFLOW MESONET SITE AT SMITH SHOAL
            LIGHT AT 1026 PM EDT.

&&

ROSS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1128 PM EDT SAT AUG 14 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1011 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 2 SW BIG COPPITT KEY    24.58N 81.68W
08/14/2021  M45 MPH          LOWER KEYS IN MONR FL   ASOS

            A SOUTHEAST WIND GUST OF 39 KTS, OR 45 MPH, WAS RECORDED
            BY THE NAS KEY WEST ASOS ON BOCA CHICA KEY AT 1011 PM
            EDT.

&&

ROSS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1224 AM EDT SUN AUG 15 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 AM     MARINE TSTM WIND 10 SW KEY WEST          24.46N 81.89W
08/15/2021  M44 MPH          GMZ044             FL   C-MAN STATION

            A SOUTHEAST WIND GUST OF 38 KTS, OR 44 MPH, WAS RECORDED
            BY THE SAND KEY C-MAN STATION AT 1200 AM EDT. THIS
            STATION ALSO RECORDED A 1-MINUTE WIND SPEED OF 35 KTS, OR
            40 MPH, AT 1154 PM EDT ON THE 14TH.

&&

ROSS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1237 AM EDT SUN AUG 15 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1121 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 14 NW KEY WEST          24.71N 81.93W
08/14/2021  M41 MPH          GMZ033             FL   MESONET

            A SOUTHEAST WIND GUST OF 36 KTS, OR 41 MPH, WAS RECORDED
            BY THE WEATHERFLOW MESONET SITE AT SMITH SHOAL LIGHT AT
            1121 PM EDT.

&&

ROSS