Special Weather Statement, NWS JSJ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
1126 AM AST Sat Oct 2 2021

.UPDATE...
No change to the inherited short term forecast and reasoning at
this time. Tropical wave and associated moisture will continue to
cross the region today into early Sunday, promoting a moist and
unstable environment with favorable conditions for enhanced convective
development. Recent TJSJ 02/12Z sounding suggests a PWAT value of
2.35 inches with the very moist layer and strong southeasterly
low level winds. That said the potential for urban and small
stream flooding will remain high, particularly across the interior
and northern half of PR including the San Juan Metro. Ponding of
water on roads and in poor drainage areas will also continue,
with the heavy rains elsewhere. Mudslides will be possible in
areas of steep terrain in PR where the soil remains saturated
from previous days rains. A drying trend still expected late
Sunday into Monday with the arrival of the Saharan dust and
increasing easterly winds as the local pressure gradient tightens
and low level moisture erodes.

&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...No change to previous AVN discussion.
Prevailing VFR, however a tropical wave will cross the region
today into Sunday bringing SCT-BKN lyrs nr FL025...FL050...FL080
with SHRA/Isold TSRA psbl en route btw islands and over regional
waters as well as VCSH/VCTS at most terminals during the rest of
the period. Recent visible satellite imagery showed Saharan air
layer with suspended Saharan dust particulates just east of the
Lesser Antilles and approaching the region.

&&

.MARINE update...No change to the previous marine discussion at
this time. Moderate to locally fresh easterly to southeast winds
will continue with choppy seas between 3 to 6 feet across much of
the local waters and passages. Showers and isolated thunderstorms
with brief gusty winds will continue across the local waters as a
tropical wave crosses the region.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 420 AM AST Sat Oct 2 2021/

SYNOPSIS...Unstable condtions with showers and thunderstorms
will continue over the area today. A gradual drying trend is
expected Monday and onwards as stability and winds increase.
Saharan dust particles continue this way, and some haziness
expected early the next week.

SHORT TERM...Today through Monday...

Doppler Radar and Satellite imagery detected showers and thunderstorms
moving across the region due to a tropical wave. This wave moving
across the islands will increase moisture and instability through
at least Sunday. Therefore, expect enhanced convection, which
could produce urban and small stream flooding and strong thunderstorms
across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Soils are already
saturated, and any persistent rain could trigger mudslides,
especially during the afternoon hours. The lingering moisture
associated with this wave will remain until tomorrow afternoon,
resulting in a seasonal weather pattern driven by showers
advection and sea breeze variations.

A ridge pattern will build aloft, stabilizing the atmosphere and
promoting sinking air aloft. In addition, a dry air mass with
Saharan dust particulate will filter from the east by Sunday
afternoon into next week. This air mass will result in hazy skies.
The maximum temperatures will continue in the low 90s, with heat
indices rising into the 100s degrees Fahrenheit, especially between
10 am and 4 pm, across urban and coastal areas.

LONG TERM...Tuesday through Sunday...

A mid to upper level ridge will hold across the local islands much
of the forecast cycle with some weakening expected by the upcoming
weekend. At lower levels, a surface high pressure north of the area
will yield moderate to fresh easterly winds Tue-Wed, becoming gentle
to moderate Thursday and onwards. Under ridge pattern aloft,
precipitable water values are expected to remain below the normal
range through at least Friday. However, as the ridge aloft weakens,
moisture advection is then expected Sat-Sun.

This pattern should keep a seasonable weather conditions, with
mostly fair weather conditions and diurnally induced convection
over western PR each afternoon. Breezy...Tue-Wed. Heat indices
will be into the 100s with temperatures in many areas ranging from
the upper 80s to lower 90s. Some haziness early in the cycle.

AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA will move across the islands due to a tropical
wave. This activity could impact terminals at times. Brief MVFR
conditions will remain possible across IST/ISX and by 02/15z
across JSJ/JBQ. TSRA will form across the Cordillera Central
between 02/15-22z, causing mountain obscuration and producing
frequent lightning. Winds will be light and variable overnight,
increasing to 10 to 15 knots from the ESE-SE with sea breeze
variations after 02/14z.

MARINE...A moderate to fresh easterly wind flow will prevail across
the local waters during the next several days. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms will continue from time to time today.
Wind-driven seas of up to 8 feet will result in hazardous marine
conditions early the next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  78  91  77 /  60  50  40  30
STT  88  75  89  76 /  60  50  40  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM AST this evening for Northwest.

VI...None.
AM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...RAM
LONG TERM....CS
PUBLIC DESK...RVT

Perspectivas sobre las Condiciones Peligrosas del Tiempo
Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia en San Juan PR
400 AM AST sabado 2 de octubre de 2021

AMZ710>745-PRZ001>013-030800-
San Juan y Vecindad-Noreste-Sureste-Este Interior-Norte Central-
Interior Central-Ponce y Vecindad-Noroeste-Oeste Interior-Mayaguez y
Vecindad-Suroeste-Culebra-Vieques-Las aguas costeras cercanas y
lejanas a la costa del Atlantico y Caribe-
400 AM AST sabado 2 de octubre de 2021

Esta Perspectiva sobre las Condiciones Peligrosas del Tiempo es para
Puerto Rico y las aguas costeras adyacentes del Atlantico.

.Dia Uno...Hoy y esta noche

.Tronadas...Existe el potencial de tronadas aisladas con lluvia
fuerte y rafagas de vientos esta tarde a traves de gran parte de
Puerto Rico. Tronadas intensas sobre el interior pudieran producir
granizo pequeno y rafagas de vientos fuertes.

.Inundaciones...Lluvias fuertes podrian resultar en inundaciones
urbanas y de riachuelos, asi como deslizamientos de tierra en areas
de terreno empinado.

.Vientos...Se esperan vientos sostenidos en exceso de 20 mph (17
nudos) a traves de sectores de las aguas mar afuera del Atlantico y
Caribe, asi como los pasajes locales.

.Oleaje...Se espera oleaje picado de hasta 6 pies a traves de
sectores de las aguas mar afuera del Atlantico y Caribe, asi como
los pasajes locales.

.Corrientes marinas...Existe un riesgo alto de corrientes marinas
para las playas de la costa noroeste de Puerto Rico. Un riesgo
moderado continua para el resto de las playas orientadas hacia el
norte y este.

.Calor...Se esperan indices de calor entre 102 y 107 grados a traves
de la mayoria de las areas urbanas y costeras.

.Dias dos hasta el siete...domingo a viernes

Se esperan aguaceros y tronadas en las tardes causando un riesgo
elevado de inundaciones urbanas y de riachuelos mayormente para el
interior de Puerto Rico. Se pronostica un aumento gradual de los
vientos alisios para el domingo a temprano la proxima semana,
resultando en condiciones maritimas peligrosas. Un riesgo alto de
corrientes marinas regresara para temprano el domingo en la noche
para la mayoria de las playas orientadas hacia el norte y este.

.Comunicado sobre informacion reportada por observadores...

No se espera activacion amplia de observadores. Favor de reportar
cualquier informacion sobre inundaciones, vientos, oleaje y
corrientes marinas al Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia en San Juan
mientras siguen las indicaciones de las autoridades locales y
estatales.

AMZ715-725-VIZ001-002-030800-
San Tomas, San John e Islas Adyacentes-
Santa Cruz-Aguas cercanas del Atlantico y aguas costeras adyacentes
del Caribe-
400 AM AST sabado 2 de octubre de 2021

Esta perspectiva sobre las condiciones peligrosas del tiempo es para
Islas Virgenes Estadounidenses y las aguas costeras adyacentes.

.Dia Uno...Hoy y esta noche

.Tronadas...Existe el potencial de tronadas aisladas con lluvia
fuerte y rafagas de vientos esta manana a traves de gran parte de
las Islas Virgenes Americanas.

.Inundaciones...Lluvias de moderadas a fuertes podrian resultar en
acumulacion de agua en carreteras y areas de poco drenaje.

.Vientos...Se esperan vientos sostenidos en exceso de 20 mph (17
nudos) a traves de sectores de las aguas mar afuera del Atlantico y
Caribe, asi como los pasajes locales.

.Oleaje...Se espera oleaje picado de hasta 6 pies a traves de
sectores de las aguas mar afuera del Atlantico y Caribe, asi como
los pasajes locales.

.Corrientes marinas...Existe un riesgo moderado de corrientes
marinas para todas las playas locales.

.Calor...Se esperan indices de calor entre 102 y 107 grados,
mayormente a traves de sectores de Santa Cruz.

.Dias dos hasta el siete...domingo a viernes

Se pronostica un aumento gradual de los vientos alisios para el
domingo a temprano la proxima semana, resultando en condiciones
maritimas peligrosas. Un riesgo alto de corrientes marinas regresara
para temprano el domingo en la noche para la mayoria de las playas
orientadas hacia el norte y este.

.Comunicado sobre informacion reportada por observadores...

No se espera activacion amplia de observadores. Favor de reportar
cualquier informacion sobre inundaciones, vientos, oleaje y
corrientes marinas al Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia en San Juan
mientras siguen las indicaciones de las autoridades locales y
estatales.

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