Areal Flood Advisory 182, NWS JSJ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service San Juan PR
954 PM AST Sat Jun 26 2021

.UPDATE...An active tropical wave moving through the local area
has spread good moisture, showers and thunderstorms across the
area and some of that activity continues across southwest coastal
Puerto Rico at this moment. Persistent heavy rains are likely
causing urban and small stream flooding along the coastal areas
there. Scattered to numerous showers also continue in a wide band
from Ponce to Juncos. More showers are also moving into the
forecast area toward Saint Croix from the southeast, while very
heavy rains continue just outside of the inner waters north of
Culebra, Saint Thomas and Saint John.

The evening sounding from San Juan at 27/00Z showed very good
precipitable water of 2.05 inches as well as a lifted index of
minus 6 and a CAPE of 2658 J/Kg. Also present was a jet from the
west southwest of 50-55 knots around 39 kft or 200-230 mb. The
latest MIMIC animation shows the band of best moisture over
eastern Puerto Rico and the eastern islands, moving slowly
westward. At this time it is not expected that this area, rich in
moisture, will clear the forecast area before solar heating
begins to ramp up over the late morning hours Sunday. Hence we
continue an outlook for Sunday for an excellent chance of showers
across the area--especially Puerto Rico and a good chance of
thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA continue around the local TAF sites with ocnl
TSRA N of TIST. TSRA are now tending to be ltd to ovr lcl waters,
but heavy SHRA are arnd TJPS and will cont byd at least 27/07Z.
Sfc winds now less than 10 kt at TAF sites, but gusts to 20 kt may
be occurring arnd TSRA. Sfc winds to incrs to 12-18 kt with hir
gusts from ESE with sea breeze influences aft 27/14Z. Max winds
WSW 45-55 kt btwn 370-450.

&&

.MARINE...Seas have generally remain at or below 5 feet except for
local areas near thunderstorms. Models continue to bring winds in
excess 20 knots with seas in the Caribbean along the southern
border of our forecast areas exceeding 12 feet on Thursday and
Thursday night due to a tropical wave passing just south of the
local area. Models also show a closed low with this wave from
time approaching and then in the local waters. Will monitor the
situation, but for now we are indicating seas up to 8 feet in the
Caribbean waters and the southern Anegada Passage.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 352 PM AST Sat Jun 26 2021/

SYNOPSIS...
A tropical wave will continue to generate showers over the area
through tonight. Weather conditions will gradually improve toward
the start of the workweek. Then, a stronger tropical wave is
expected to reach the area by late Wednesday into Thursday,
resulting in an increase in shower and thunderstorm activity.

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Monday...
A tropical wave will continue to move across the area tonight while
interacting with a Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) north
of the area. The GFS forecast soundings are showing favorable
conditions for this activity to continue through the night, with
precipitable water values around 1.9 inches, and decent relative
humidities at the low (near 85%) and mid levels (near 70%).
Additionally, the local guidance are indicating an area of
divergence aloft for the eastern half of the forecast area tonight
due to the presence of the TUTT. Therefore, under a southeasterly
wind flow, showers will be continued to be advected across the
southeastern and eastern half of Puerto Rico, including Vieques and
Culebra, as well as the U.S. Virgin Islands. This activity could
lead to urban and small stream flooding.

By tomorrow morning, a slot of slightly dry air will begin to enter
into the area. However, lingering moisture from the tropical wave
should still result in a few additional showers impacting the
eastern half of PR/USVI. The TUTT will also remain to the north of
the area, generating a southwesterly flow at the upper levels with
500 mb temperatures around -7 degrees. Therefore, in the afternoon,
showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop once
again, but this time mainly concentrating on the interior and
northwestern quadrant of Puerto Rico. Then on Monday, conditions
will improve a bit, with additional drier air moving into the mid-
levels and the TUTT moving toward the north. As a result, only
seasonal shower activity is expected to prevail during the day.

LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday.../from prev discussion/

A Saharan Air Layer is expected to move on Tuesday and continue
through at least midday Wednesday, this will cause hazy skies and
limit shower activity across the islands. However, diurnally
induced afternoon showers are still expected to develop on Tuesday
over western Puerto Rico. Increasing trade winds are also
expected, and brief passing showers could move at times across the
U.S. Virgin Islands and eastern sections of PR, however, no
significant rainfall accumulations are expected at this time.

Meanwhile, latest model guidance continues to suggest that a
tropical wave will move between Wednesday night into Thursday
across the local area. Shower and thunderstorm activity is
expected to increase during this period across the regional waters
and across PR and the USVI. This wave currently has a low
formation chance to develop during the next 5 days into a tropical
cyclone according to the National Hurricane Center.

A strong ridge is forecast to build across the Atlantic basin
during the latter part of the week, and another area of the SAL
with drier air is expected to move over the islands and promote
fair weather conditions into the weekend. Another tropical wave is
forecast to move on Friday, well south of the region.

AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA forecast across the local area through the
forecast period. This would cause VCSH/VCTS across the local
terminals this afternoon and tonight. TEMPO TSRA is possible at TJBQ
after 26/18Z. Winds from the E-SE at 10-15KT but gusty near
SHRA/TSRA this afternoon, decreasing after 26/23Z but still gusty
near SHRA/TSRA.

MARINE...
Seas up to 5 feet and winds generally up to 15 knots in the
nearshore waters and up to 20 knots in the offshore Atlantic and
Anegada Passage are expected to continue tonight. Showers and
isolated thunderstorms will be possible through the night hours
due to a passing tropical wave. For the beaches, the rip current
risk is moderate for eastern Vieques, Culebra, south St. John, and
the southern and eastern half of St. Croix.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  87  77  88 /  50  40  30  30
STT  78  87  78  89 /  60  50  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...WS
LONG TERM....ERG
PUBLIC DESK...LIS

Perspectivas sobre Condiciones Peligrosas del Tiempo
Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia en San Juan PR
433 AM AST sabado 26 de junio de 2021

AMZ710>745-PRZ001>013-270815-
San Juan y Vecindad-Noreste-Sureste-Este Interior-Norte Central-
Interior Central-Ponce y Vecindad-Noroeste-Oeste Interior-
Mayaguez y Vecindad-Suroeste-Culebra-Vieques-Las aguas costeras
cercanas y lejanas a la costa del Atlantico y Caribe-
433 AM AST sabado 26 de junio de 2021

Esta perspectiva sobre las condiciones peligrosas del tiempo es para
Puerto Rico y las aguas costeras del Atlantico.

.Dia Uno...Hoy y esta noche

.Tronadas...Existe el potencial de tronadas aisladas con lluvias
fuertes y vientos en rafaga breves a traves del area durante el dia.

.Inundaciones...Lluvias fuertes pudieran resultar en inundaciones urbanas y
de riachuelos.

.Viento...Vientos sostenidos en exceso de 20 mph (17 nudos) son
posibles esta tarde, a traves de porciones de las aguas del
Atlantico al norte de Puerto Rico.

.Corrientes Marinas...Existe un riesgo moderado de corrientes
marinas para algunas playas del norte de Puerto Rico y a traves de
las playas del este de Culebra y Vieques para esta noche.

.Dias dos hasta el siete...domingo a viernes

Humedad remanente de una onda tropical alejandose pudiera resultar
en areas de inundaciones urbanas y de riachuelos sobre el noroeste
de Puerto Rico domingo en la tarde por la actividad de aguaceros y
tronadas que se desarrolle. Una onda tropical mas fuerte pudiera
afectar el area tarde el miercoles al jueves, resultando en
actividad de aguaceros y tronadas mas generalizadas y por lo tanto
areas de inundaciones urbanas y de riachuelos.

Se espera un riesgo moderado de corrientes marinas a traves de
varias de las playas locales hasta mediados de semana, aumentando a
alto para la parte final de la semana laboral. Oleaje picado a
peligroso tambien es posible para la parte final de la semana
laboral.

.Comunicado sobre informacion reportada por observadores...

No se espera activacion amplia de observadores. Favor de reportar
cualquier informacion sobre inundaciones, vientos, oleaje y
corrientes marinas al Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia en San Juan
mientras siguen las indicaciones de las autoridades locales y
estatales.

AMZ715-725-VIZ001-002-270815-
San Tomas, San John e Islas Adyacentes-Santa Cruz-
Aguas cercanas del Atlantico y aguas costeras adyacentes del Caribe-
433 AM AST sabado 26 de junio de 2021

Esta perspectiva sobre las condiciones peligrosas del tiempo es para
Islas Virgenes Estadounidenses y las aguas costeras adyacentes.

.Dia Uno...Hoy y esta noche

.Inundaciones...Lluvias moderadas a localmente fuertes en ocasiones
pudiera resultar en acumulacion de agua en carreteras y en areas de
pobre drenaje.

.Corrientes Marinas...Existe un riesgo moderado de corrientes
marinas para las playas del este de Santa Cruz.

.Dias dos hasta el siete...domingo a viernes

Una onda tropical mas fuerte pudiera afectar el area tarde el
miercoles al jueves, resultando en actividad de aguaceros y tronadas
mas generalizadas y por lo tanto areas de inundaciones urbanas y de
cunetas.

Se espera un riesgo moderado de corrientes marinas a traves de
algunas de las playas locales hasta mediados de semana, aumentando a
alto para la parte final de la semana laboral, principalmente para
Santa Cruz. Oleaje picado a peligroso tambien es posible para la
parte final de la semana laboral.

.Comunicado sobre informacion reportada por observadores...

No se espera activacion amplia de observadores. Favor de reportar
cualquier informacion sobre inundaciones, vientos, oleaje y
corrientes marinas al Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia en San Juan
mientras siguen las indicaciones de las autoridades locales y
estatales.

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