Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
350 PM EDT Mon Aug 30 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 340 PM EDT MON AUG 30 2021

Latest analysis shows high pressure over the SE states, a frontal
boundary to our north that stretches from upper New England back
through the upper OH valley, and Ida making it's way northward
across LA/MS. Eastern KY has moist W/SW flow with PWAT values around
1.8 inches this afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
continue through the evening as a pre event occurs northeast of the
tropical system and ahead of the front to the north. Already there
has been significant flash flooding in portions of Pike county, and
the concern for additional flooding will occur this evening over
other parts of eastern KY if slow moving storms move over the same
areas in succession. While the chance of rain doesn't go away
overnight, Pops do diminish before increasing again from SW to NE
towards morning as Ida's tropical moisture begins to enter the area.
Overnight low temps will be in the upper 60s.

The remnants of Ida will impact the area Tuesday into Wednesday. As
the system starts to make it's transformation into an extra-tropical
system, it will interact with the frontal boundary and an upper
level jet. The main precip shield will shift to north and northeast
of the center, and with the center passing just to our south or
along the border with TN/VA, that main precip shield would be across
eastern KY. While some rain is expected Tuesday morning, the bulk of
the moderate to heavy rain will occur from Tuesday afternoon through
Wednesday morning. With PWAT values expected to increase to over 2
inches, expecting very efficient rainfall. Overall, looking at 2-3
inches of rain from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning, but
there will be locally higher amounts. This is on top of the heavy
rain seen in some places today. A Flash Flood Watch goes into effect
from Tuesday afternoon and lasts until early Wednesday afternoon.
This could potentially be a serious situation if the heaviest
rainfall occurs over areas that experienced significant rainfall
today. In addition, there is some potential for river flooding,
especially along portions of the Kentucky, Licking, and Red river
basins. We'll be monitoring this closely as well.

With the rain and cloud cover, temps will be cooler on Tuesday
likely only reaching the low to mid 70s. Overnight low temps will be
in the mid to upper 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 350 PM EDT MON AUG 30 2021

The start of the long term period will be active as the remnants of
hurricane Ida continue to progress northeast. The upper level
pattern will start off with an area of high pressure centered near
Oklahoma with the remnants of Ida (post tropical cyclone by
Wednesday afternoon) over the eastern Ohio Valley and into the Mid
Atlantic states. On upper air maps, the main low pressure center
associated with Ida will be an open wave instead of a closed
circulation as the upper low continues to fill in. At the surface, a
cold front will be along the southern border of our CWA and will
continue to progress southeast. Plenty of moisture will be advected
into our area ahead as Ida progresses northward. PWAT values are
expected to start off near 1.8 inches but will peak around 2 inches
Wednesday afternoon. The current QPF forecast shows 2-3 inches of
rainfall expected over eastern Kentucky which is a little less than
was expected around the same time yesterday. The latest model trends
have the remnants of Ida filling in and moving northeast more
quickly. Cooler, drier air also moves in behind the cold front and
keeps hold over eastern Kentucky Thursday into Sunday morning.

The start of the long term period will be very wet as the remnants
of Ida impact the Commonwealth. Prolonged overcast conditions and
widespread precipitation will keep highs in the low to mid 70s
Wednesday. A cooler, drier airmass will move into the Commonwealth
after the passage of the cold front Wednesday and will keep highs in
the mid 70s Thursday. Temperatures will increase 2-3 degrees each
afternoon as clear skies allow for plenty of afternoon heating.
Conditions are expected to be mostly dry Thursday with the
exception of the higher terrain. Dry conditions are expected for all
of eastern kentucky Friday through Sunday morning. By Saturday,
highs should reach back into the low 80s with overnight lows in the
mid 60s. The chance for precipitation may return over the weekend
but models do not show great agreement so have stuck close to NBM
guidance.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 120 PM EDT MON AUG 30 2021

Scattered convection this afternoon and evening will result in
periods of flight restrictions. Winds are westerly generally 5 kts
or less. Patchy fog and lower stratus will arrive overnight into
Tuesday morning as tropical moisture from Ida begins to arrive in
eastern KY. Expect periods of sub-VFR ceilings and visbys during
the morning through the end of the period. IFR/LIFR conditions are
possible at times during periods of heavy rain.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday
afternoon for KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-
106>120.

&&

SHORT TERM...CMF
LONG TERM...BATZ
AVIATION...CMF

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
116 PM EDT MON AUG 30 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1243 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 SSE HUDDY             37.58N 82.27W
08/30/2021                   PIKE               KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            POND CREEK AT THE RED ROBIN BUILDINGS IS
            FLOODED.

&&

FISHER

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
353 PM EDT Mon Aug 30 2021

KYZ083-084-302045-
McCreary KY-Wayne KY-
353 PM EDT Mon Aug 30 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Wayne
and southwestern McCreary Counties through 445 PM EDT...

At 352 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Griffin, or 11 miles southeast of Monticello, moving east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
  Kidds Crossing, Slavens, Denney, Ritner, Co-Operative, Blue Heron
  and Stearns.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3661 8482 3679 8482 3688 8454 3663 8448
TIME...MOT...LOC 1952Z 269DEG 7KT 3670 8473

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

GREIF