Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
440 PM EDT Tue Jul 6 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 440 PM EDT TUE JUL 6 2021

Current temperatures across the area are in the upper 80s to low 90s
with dew points ranging from the upper 60s to mid 70s. A cumulus
field covers most of the area with a few very slow moving storms in
the northern portion of the CWA. These pulse storms that develop
could produce brief, localized downpours but should not be long
lasting due to weak environmental winds and weak shear.

Upper level ridging currently resides over much of the Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys to the Mid Atlantic coast. Height falls are
expected Wednesday as an upper level trough approaches from the
northwest and Elsa continues to progress northward. These upper
level disturbances will help weaken and eventually will remove any
ridging over the area, leading to better chances for precipitation.
Current model runs show pockets of upper level vorticity traversing
the area tomorrow afternoon and evening which will aid in storm
potential. Elsa will make a slight right turn Wednesday night,
eventually following a track along the Atlantic coast of Georgia and
the Carolinas. At the surface, high pressure will stay to our east
over the Mid Atlantic states while low pressure begins to sneak in
from the west Wednesday. Current PWAT values across the area are
around 1.4 inches and will increase to between 1.8-2.0 inches
tomorrow afternoon.

The chance for a few pulse storms to develop across the CWA remains
in the forecast this evening but quickly diminishes once the sun
sets and surface heating ceases. Temperatures will remain mild over
night, in the mid to upper 60s, with fog developing in the valleys,
with denser fog along the river valleys. A slight ridge/valley split
may develop as clouds thin over the area. Wednesday high
temperatures are expected in the mid to upper 80s along with a
renewed chance for afternoon convection. PoPs increase in the
afternoon and into the overnight hours as better forcing and a more
unstable environment sets up over our area. Current CAM soundings
show potential SBCAPE in the 2000-3000J/kg range, severe potential
is currently low but these storms may provide a quick downpour. Fog
is likely again Thursday morning with dew points expected to remain
in the mid to upper 60s overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 330 PM EDT TUE JUL 6 2021

The extended period will feature hot and muggy conditions along
with pretty much daily and nightly chances of showers and storms.
A series of low pressure systems, and their associated surface
fronts, will be moving across the CONUS during the extended. As
the fronts moves slowly through our area, we will see showers and
storms across eastern Kentucky. The best chances for thunderstorms
will be during the afternoon and early evening hours each day.
Daily highs will top out in the 80s, while nightly lows should
fall into the mid to upper 60s. Winds should be generally out of
the south or southwest during the period at 5 to 10 mph each day.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT TUE JUL 6 2021

A cumulus field will affect the forecast area through the
afternoon and into the evening at around 3.5-5k ft AGL. A few of
the more robust updrafts should be able to mature into isolated
to widely scattered "pop-up" showers and thunderstorms, mainly
during the late afternoon and evening. The mention of thunder has
been omitted from all the TAFs, except for JKL, due to the small
probability of direct impacts at any particular terminal. Winds
could be gusty and erratic near thunderstorms. Look for fog to
form again tonight, especially for places that see pcpn today. The
worst of the fog will likely be confined to the river valleys
while some impacts at the terminals are also anticipated - similar
to last night.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BATZ
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GEERTSON/GREIF

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
417 PM EDT Tue Jul 6 2021

KYZ104-106-062100-
Elliott-Morgan-
417 PM EDT Tue Jul 6 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN MORGAN AND ELLIOTT
COUNTIES...

At 417 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Sandy Hook,
moving west at 5 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Sandy Hook, Lenox, Moon, Lick Branch, Little Sandy, Isonville,
Newfoundland, Elkfork, Steele, Crockett, Lytten, Bruin and Stark.

LAT...LON 3819 8299 3802 8300 3800 8302 3796 8301
      3795 8327 3813 8324 3813 8322 3816 8322
      3817 8320 3817 8322 3819 8323 3820 8306
      3818 8305 3820 8304
TIME...MOT...LOC 2017Z 089DEG 6KT 3807 8310

FISHER

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