Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
340 PM EDT Tue Jun 8 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 340 PM EDT TUE JUN 8 2021

We continue to see slow moving showers and thunderstorms develop
this afternoon mainly along and west of I-75 and around the I-64
corridor. The greatest concern has been heavy rainfall given the
weak northwest steering flow and ample moisture with PWATs in the
1.6 to 1.8 inch range. The lack of shear has also allowed some of
these to become more multicellular in nature and further leading
to periods of heavy rainfall. These will likely be mostly tied to
the diurnal trends and would expect this activity to decrease in
coverage through the evening.

Tonight, we will see the decrease in coverage early, with perhaps
some fog developing in areas that see rainfall and clearing.
Right now best chance is in the far southeast in terms of fog. The
upper low will meander east toward the Ohio Valley tonight and
noticing some weaker waves riding through the mid-level flow. This
could lead to increased showers and thunderstorms toward dawn
Wednesday morning particularly in the western parts of the CWA
such as the Bluegrass and Lake Cumberland regions. This will have
to be closely monitored given this convection could be quite
efficient in producing heavy rainfall, as PWAT values are expected
to increase closer to 2 inches toward dawn.

Wednesday, this weak upper level low will continue to push east
and lead to likely PoPs for most through the day, with best
chances remain in the western parts of the CWA. The peak of this
convection will be in the afternoon and evening. Opted to go with
chance for thunder given the lesser instability in place likely
owing to cloud cover potential. Also, opted to drop afternoon
highs a few degrees given the aforementioned cloud cover.
Wednesday night, the coverage of convection is expected to once
again wain, as we loose the little potential for heating we have
during the day. We could see some patchy fog, but this will be
more dependent on how the cloud cover shakes out.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 320 PM EDT TUE JUN 8 2021

The large scale upper pattern in the extended will feature surface
ridging over the southeastern CONUS, troughing over the northwest,
and strong upper ridging building over the southwest. Over time,
the southwest ridge looks to build in quite strongly and expand
north and eastward. As this occurs, the large upper trough that
will have come onshore already, will be displaced northward, and
will migrate eastward along the northern edge of the strong upper
ridge. Meanwhile, the southeastern ridge should weaken and become
more elongated with time. Smaller scale features will include
upper level disturbances and a slow moving area of low pressure
aloft, all of which will move through the Ohio and Tennessee
Valley regions through out the extended period. It is these
smaller scale features that should provide the necessary lift
required to aid in shower and storm formation across our area.
Southerly to southwesterly flow around the western edge of the
weakening southeastern ridge will provide the fuel for shower and
storm formation, particularly during the afternoon and evening
hours. It appears that we will see very good chances for late day
shower and storm activity around eastern Kentucky through most of
the extended, especially Thursday through Saturday night. The
nighttime periods will also see decent chances for rain, as there
should still enough lift, moisture, and instability present to
support showers and storms. Locally heavy rainfall will be a
concern on Thursday and Friday, as those appear to be the days
during which we will see the highest precipitable water amounts
and maximum low level moisture flux. The upper level low mentioned
before may also be moving directly overhead by the end of the
week.

Temperatures should top out mainly in the 80s each day, with
nightly lows falling into the 60s. Winds will be generally out of
the south or southwest at around 5Kts each day and lighter at
night. Dewpoint temperatures in the 60s and lower 70s will make
for very warm and muggy conditions around the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM EDT TUE JUN 8 2021

We are seeing mostly VFR conditions this afternoon and this will
be the story for most of the period. However, the cumulus field
developing this afternoon will and has led to brief MVFR Cigs at
TAF sites. Also any shower and thunderstorm development through
the afternoon and evening could lead to temporary lowering of
Cigs and Vis. The rainfall associated with afternoon storms could
lead to periods of fog and this could sneak into the TAF sites
late tonight into Wednesday morning. The winds will remain below
10 knots out of the south and southwest through the period, but
any thunderstorms could produce brief gusty winds if it happens to
take aim on a TAF site.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...DJ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson KY
411 PM EDT Tue Jun 8 2021

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-092315-
Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle-
Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan-
Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott-
Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike-
Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville,
Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna,
Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee,
Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns,
Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro,
Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Sandy Hook, West Liberty,
Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright,
Beattyville, Jackson, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard,
Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run,
Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson
411 PM EDT Tue Jun 8 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms are possible, especially during the late afternoon
and evening hours. Locally heavy rain could lead to isolated high
water concerns. Some of these storms could also produce isolated
strong wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Thunderstorms are possible, mainly during the afternoon and
evening hours each day. Locally heavy rain is also forecast, with
chances for heavy rain peaking from Wednesday through Friday
night. If heavy rain materializes, localized flooding could
result.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report high water and wind damage
through Friday.

DJ/AR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
547 PM EDT Tue Jun 8 2021

KYZ086-116-117-082230-
Clay-Knox-Leslie-
547 PM EDT Tue Jun 8 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN KNOX...WEST CENTRAL
LESLIE AND SOUTHEASTERN CLAY COUNTIES...

At 546 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Brightshade, or
10 miles southeast of Manchester, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Enline, Brightshade, Marcum, Salt Gum, Bobs Fork, Goose Rock,
Creekville, Ogle, Lipps, Mills, Plank, Spurlock, Peabody, Ice Cliff,
Hensley, Hosea, Ashers Fork, Roark, Hector and Boho.

LAT...LON 3692 8364 3698 8378 3724 8368 3712 8339
TIME...MOT...LOC 2146Z 208DEG 16KT 3703 8365

RAY

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
606 PM EDT Tue Jun 8 2021

KYZ107-110-119-082230-
Martin-Floyd-Johnson-
606 PM EDT Tue Jun 8 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MARTIN...SOUTHEASTERN JOHNSON
AND NORTHEASTERN FLOYD COUNTIES...

At 605 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Dicks Creek, or
near Prestonsburg, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Prestonsburg, Inez, Tomahawk, Endicott, Coalpoint, Davella, Prince,
Delong, McClure, Preece, Auxier, Moree, Odds, Dicks Creek, Bradbury,
Debord, Pleasant, Bays Branch, Davisport and Nero.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

LAT...LON 3769 8250 3769 8256 3768 8256 3767 8261
      3764 8260 3762 8264 3772 8278 3788 8262
      3789 8260 3790 8260 3792 8258 3774 8238
TIME...MOT...LOC 2205Z 239DEG 18KT 3773 8268

KAS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
618 PM EDT Tue Jun 8 2021

KYZ107-119-082245-
Martin-Johnson-
618 PM EDT Tue Jun 8 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN MARTIN AND EASTERN
JOHNSON COUNTIES...

At 618 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Wells Chapel,
or near Paintsville, moving north at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Tutor Key, Wells Chapel, Woodland Estates, Thelma, Whitehouse, Bobbs,
Boons Camp, Meally, Chestnut, Williamsport, River, Van Lear, Offutt,
Perston Estates and Buffalo.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

LAT...LON 3776 8266 3777 8277 3794 8278 3789 8268
      3789 8261 3792 8260 3793 8259
TIME...MOT...LOC 2218Z 193DEG 19KT 3781 8270

KAS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
637 PM EDT Tue Jun 8 2021

KYZ115-117-082300-
Perry-Leslie-
637 PM EDT Tue Jun 8 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN LESLIE AND CENTRAL
PERRY COUNTIES...

At 637 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Wooton, or over
Hyden, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Hazard, Hyden, Vicco, Avawam, Jeff, Wooton, Diablock, Wendover, Frew
and Smilax.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

LAT...LON 3713 8342 3734 8328 3725 8312 3724 8312
      3724 8309 3722 8306 3710 8337
TIME...MOT...LOC 2237Z 226DEG 20KT 3716 8333

KAS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
701 PM EDT Tue Jun 8 2021

KYZ113-115-117-082330-
Perry-Knott-Leslie-
701 PM EDT Tue Jun 8 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL LESLIE...
NORTHEASTERN PERRY AND SOUTHWESTERN KNOTT COUNTIES...

At 701 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Hazard, moving
northeast at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Hazard, Vicco, Elic, Sassafras, Ritchie, Anco, Viper, Ary, Emmalena,
Diablock, Cordia, Wiscoal, Jeff, Carrie, Talcum, Amburgey, Bulan,
Fisty, Frew and Dwarf.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

LAT...LON 3718 8330 3741 8316 3741 8313 3728 8296
      3710 8317
TIME...MOT...LOC 2301Z 224DEG 22KT 3724 8321

KAS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
804 PM EDT Tue Jun 8 2021

KYZ110-113-118-120-090030-
Floyd-Knott-Pike-Letcher-
804 PM EDT Tue Jun 8 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN LETCHER...EAST
CENTRAL KNOTT...SOUTHEASTERN FLOYD AND SOUTHWESTERN PIKE COUNTIES...

At 803 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Hall, or 11
miles east of Hindman, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Pikeville, Wheelwright, Fleming-Neon, Pippa Passes, East McDowell,
Horn, Pine Top, Beefhide, Nealy, McDowell, Lester, Democrat, Dorton,
Ivan, Buckhorn Hollow, Osborn, Orkney, Rockhouse, Demo and Ligon.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

LAT...LON 3718 8278 3733 8295 3754 8262 3731 8239
TIME...MOT...LOC 0003Z 233DEG 18KT 3729 8278

KAS