Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
926 PM EDT Thu Apr 8 2021

.UPDATE...
Issued at 925 PM EDT THU APR 8 2021

A line of showers and storms continues to make its way across the
CWA this evening, producing storms with frequent lightning and
gusty winds, along with hail and pockets of heavy rainfall in some
of the stronger storms. These storms will continue to push east
through the remainder of the evening, with activity expected to
gradually diminish over the next few hours as some of the better
stability is lost. Based on recent guidance, the last of the rain
should exit eastern Kentucky in the by the early overnight hours,
with quiet conditions continuing for the rest of the night.
Overall, the grids themselves were in fairly good shape. The main
changes were to the PoP grids to tweak the timing based on recent
guidance. Also incorporated recent trends in the observations.
Updates were sent and new zones were generated.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 447 PM EDT THU APR 8 2021

The latest surface map features low pressure centered across
northern Iowa, with a surface cold front aligned east and then
south across the Ohio Valley and into the Tennessee Valley. Aloft,
a well-defined upper level low is currently pivoting near the
Iowa/Missouri/Illinois border, with a vorticity lobe swinging
through Kentucky/Tennessee. Convection has fired up ahead of the
cold front this afternoon, with a broken line of convection
moving into eastern Kentucky. A few of the storms have become
severe, taking advantage of low to moderate CAPE and shear in
place across the area.

The models are in decent agreement through the short term, with
the upper level low to exit and dampen to the north through
Friday. Meanwhile, additional short wave energy will amplify and
cut off as it moves from the northern Great Basin/northern Rockies
into the Plains, before reaching the middle Mississippi Valley by
early Saturday morning. At the surface, the Ohio Valley cold front
will gradually dissolve as it heads further east tonight. Low
pressure will then emerge out of the southern Plains and head
northeast into the lower and middle Mississippi valleys late
Friday through early Saturday morning.

Showers and scattered thunderstorms, a few continuing to test
severe limits, will gradually head east across the area into
early this evening. A gradual diminishment is expected with time,
as the mid and upper level support exit and instability is lost.
PoPs will dry up for the second half of the night, with partial
clearing working in from the west and southwest. Lows will range
from the low to mid 50s. Friday is shaping up to a be warm and dry
day, as models continue to downplay PoPs, given the drier air and
a bit more pronounced short wave ridging now depicted. Highs will
top out in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Friday night will start
out with mostly clear skies, before clouds increase from the
southwest after midnight. Some shower activity will also threaten
from the southwest towards dawn out ahead of the approaching
system to our west and southwest. Lows will mainly be in the mid
to upper 50s, although a few far eastern valleys may be able to
decouple early on and achieve some cooler readings.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 537 PM EDT THU APR 8 2021

The weekend will start off on a wet note before turning drier
heading into the new work week. The long term period begins 12Z
Saturday with an upper level low over eastern Kansas/western
Missouri while its surface reflection will be displaced to the
east over closer to the Missouri/Illinois border. A cold front
will extend southward from the surface low to near the Missouri
Bootheel and then SW to along the Texas Gulf Coast. The low
pressure center should quickly move NE to over the Lower Great
Lakes Sunday morning, sweeping the cold front across the
Commonwealth late Saturday and Saturday night. The latest model
suite increasingly suggests that a large MCS (squall line) will
develop along/ahead of a pre-frontal trough over the Deep South
on Saturday. This would likely cutoff the deeper moisture flow
into eastern Kentucky while keeping us under a downsloped S to SSE
flow. Meanwhile, most of the better forcing with the low could
stay more to our north. If these latest model trends are correct,
Saturday could actually feature more dry time across our area
than previously expected. With that dry slot moving in, expect
that any morning showers to give way to some breaks of sunshine.
With a strong 50+ knot 850 mb jet, in the low's warm sector,
flowing over the area, expect that any destabilization will allow
for some momentum transfer down to the surface, leading to a
gusty southerly breeze. If there is sufficient clearing,
temperatures should warm well into the 70s Saturday afternoon. As
that cold front approaches late in the day, expect that a line of
convection will form along or ahead of it. At this point, what
marginal instability develops on Saturday afternoon will be waning
as the line approaches. While a strong storm or two cannot be
ruled out, that threat should diminish quickly as the line moves
across eastern Kentucky.

Behind that front, temperatures will be noticeably colder with
temperatures only reaching the 60s. The upper level low could
still be close enough for a fair amount of CU and perhaps a
shower, mainly over northern Kentucky. As that upper low slowly
fills and pulls away to the north late Sunday, high pressure will
nose in bringing clear skies, light winds, and a chilly
temperatures for Sunday night. The mostly clear skies should
continue for most of Monday as briefly warmer WSW flow allows for
a pleasant afternoon with high temperatures back into the low to
mid 70s. Thereafter, model agreement worsens significantly; but a
general cooling trend is apparent, starting off with a cold front
sometime Monday night. The models continue to disagree on this
front's timing as well as the chances for any measurable rainfall.
Another surge of colder air is probable during the mid-to-late
portions of the week although the details are obscure. Eventually,
850 mb temps are expected to fall to near 0C which would be
conducive to frost or freeze concerns later in the week if we see
a night of clear skies and light winds. Those with agricultural
interests sensitive to sub-freezing temperatures may want to
monitor the forecast as we approach the middle and latter portions
of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
ISSUED AT 925 PM EDT THU APR 8 2021

A passing cold front is pushing a line of showers and
thunderstorms across the area this evening. Some of the stronger
storms will bring along periods of MVFR, and occasionally worse,
conditions, along with gusty winds. The shower and storm activity
should gradually weaken and exit from west to east as the evening
continues to progress, with activity out of the area completely by
around 6z or so. Prevailing VFR conditions will return for the
remainder of the period, with light southerly winds increasing to
between 5 and 10 kts Friday, with gusts around 15 kts.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...HAS
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...GEERTSON
AVIATION...HAS

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
929 PM EDT THU APR 8 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0749 PM     HAIL             GRAYS KNOB              36.81N 83.30W
04/08/2021  M0.70 INCH       HARLAN             KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED DIME-SIZED HAIL AND
            WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 40 MPH.

&&

PGG

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
930 PM EDT Thu Apr 8 2021

KYZ107-109-110-119-090200-
Martin-Floyd-Johnson-Magoffin-
930 PM EDT Thu Apr 8 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WEST CENTRAL MARTIN...JOHNSON...
NORTHWESTERN FLOYD AND EAST CENTRAL MAGOFFIN COUNTIES...

At 929 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Leander, or
near Paintsville, moving northeast at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and half inch diameter hail are possible
with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Paintsville, Oaklawn Estates, Tutor Key, East Point, Fitz, Wells
Chapel, Oil Springs, Galen, Thelma, Whitehouse, Dobson, Meally,
Thealka, Collista, West Van Lear, Chestnut, Williamsport, River,
Nippa and Offutt.

LAT...LON 3782 8258 3767 8292 3774 8301 3795 8281
      3791 8273 3789 8267
TIME...MOT...LOC 0129Z 229DEG 32KT 3775 8288

HAL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
955 PM EDT Thu Apr 8 2021

KYZ116-090230-
Clay-
955 PM EDT Thu Apr 8 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL CLAY COUNTY...

At 955 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Littleton, or
near Manchester, moving northeast at 40 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and penny size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Manchester, Seth, Enline, Wild Cat, Newfound, Barcreek, Hima, Herron,
Hooker, Spurlock, Peabody, Hensley, Park Valley, Jacks Creek,
Bernice, Pigeonroost, House, Hector, Teges and Boho.

LAT...LON 3713 8385 3735 8366 3734 8363 3730 8361
      3729 8358 3726 8356 3727 8355 3725 8351
      3724 8351 3723 8353 3720 8351 3717 8355
      3716 8356 3706 8376
TIME...MOT...LOC 0155Z 228DEG 35KT 3718 8371

HAL

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