River Flood Advisory 52, NWS Jackson, KY

325 
WGUS83 KJKL 190845
FLSJKL

Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Jackson KY
445 AM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021

...The Flood Advisory is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Kentucky...

  Kentucky River near Ravenna affecting Estill County.

KYC065-190945-
/O.CAN.KJKL.FL.Y.0052.000000T0000Z-210819T0845Z/
/RAVK2.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
445 AM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021

...The Flood Advisory for the Kentucky River near Ravenna has been 
cancelled...

The Flood Advisory is cancelled for
  the Kentucky River near Ravenna.
* At 4:15 AM EDT Thursday the stage was 16.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 21.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall this morning.


&&

LAT...LON 3788 8405 3769 8385 3763 8392 3779 8411

$$

CMF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1109 PM EDT Wed Aug 18 2021

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1109 PM EDT WED AUG 18 2021

Earlier convection that moved into the CWA has dissipated to
sprinkles if that at it moved further toward the headwaters of the
Cumberland and Kentucky rivers. Additional showers are moving
across central KY with some thunderstorms in eastern middle TN as
a shortwave trough moves into the OH Valley region. Guidance
suggests shower activity with at least scattered coverage should
eventually work east and/or develop across the area overnight.
Some minor adjustments were made to the hourly grids based on
recent radar, observation, and satellite trends.

UPDATE Issued at 825 PM EDT WED AUG 18 2021

Hourly grids have been updated based on recent observations,
satellite imagery, and radar trends with weakening convection
near the I 75 corridor that moved in from the TN Cumberland
Plateau. Overall, this led to only minor changes at this point.
With a shortwave trough working across the region, additional
scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm are anticipated
overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 500 PM EDT WED AUG 18 2021

All was quiet as of late afternoon, but an area of showers and
thunderstorms was about to move into our southwest counties from
the west. This was occurring in association with a weak shortwave
trough. This wave will continue northeast and merge into a broader
but also weak trough over the Great Lakes during the period. It
will result in a potential for showers and thunderstorms spreading
northeast over the forecast area tonight, but activity will be
limited by the diurnal min for convection. An uptick in activity
is expected during the day Thursday, with a peak in the early
afternoon with assistance from limited heating. As the wave
shifts east on Thursday night and heating is lost, most activity
should die out. With very modest, largely unidirectional flow
aloft and a moist atmosphere, training of cells could offer some
localized heavy rain on Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 514 PM EDT WED AUG 18 2021

Concerning the upper levels, the models are in decent agreement
through the weekend. They show a weak trough positioned across the
Ohio Valley to start on Friday. This trough eventually closes off
and hovers over the region further into the weekend, helping to keep
the southern ridge to our south for a little while longer, while
weather across our area remains unsettled. Moving towards the end of
the weekend and into the workweek, the trough is eventually able to
shift its way northeast. Over our area, heights rise as ridging
finally builds in from the southwest, acting to limit the convection
somewhat and allow for an overall warming trend into the remainder
of the period.

Sensible weather will feature daily chances for showers and storms
through the weekend. These chances are aided in part by an upper
level wave moving over the Northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley
helping to support a surface low attempting to drag an associated
front towards the area. As the ridge builds in and high pressure
starts to move ,chances for storms look to gradually decrease over
the coming days. However, a few weak waves of energy passing through
the flow will ensure chances do not disappear completely. Highs will
warm through the period, going from the low 80s Friday, to the upper
80s by the middle of next week. Lows generally stay in the mid to
upper 60s. However, as conditions dry out, a general return to a
familiar ridge-valley split overnight is expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
ISSUED AT 832 PM EDT WED AUG 18 2021

At issuance time mostly VFR was occurring across the region with
isolated MVFR ceilings or vis due to showers/storms near Tn
border near the I 75 corridor. The convection near the TN border
has been weakening and convection further west and southwest of
the area will likely weaken as sunset passes. However, a shortwave
trough will be moving across the area tonight, and additional
scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm are anticipated.
Confidence in occurrence and timing at any given location is too
low to mention any prevailing TS, but some VCTS has been used. A
diurnal uptick in coverage of convection is likely after 14Z and
some MVFR vis and or ceilings will be possible in this. Aside from
convection, fog or stratus build down is expected to bring a
deterioration in conditions after 6Z, particularly valleys, and
some IFR vis and or ceilings should occur through about 16Z.
Outside of any thunderstorms, the last 6 to 9 hours of the period
should feature prevailing VFR conditions.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...HAS
AVIATION...JP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson KY
448 PM EDT Wed Aug 18 2021

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-191100-
Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle-
Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan-
Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott-
Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike-
Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville,
Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna,
Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee,
Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns,
Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro,
Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Sandy Hook, West Liberty,
Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright,
Beattyville, Jackson, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard,
Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run,
Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson
448 PM EDT Wed Aug 18 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms are possible tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Thunderstorms are possible at times through the period, some of
which may bring locally heavy rainfall on Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

HAL