Areal Flood Warning 9, NWS Jackson, KY

586 
WGUS83 KJKL 010022
FLSJKL

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Jackson KY
722 PM EST Sun Feb 28 2021

KYC025-065-071-109-115-119-125-129-153-159-189-195-199-203-010500-
/O.CON.KJKL.FA.W.0009.000000T0000Z-210301T0500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Breathitt KY-Estill KY-Floyd KY-Jackson KY-Johnson KY-Knott KY-
Laurel KY-Lee KY-Magoffin KY-Martin KY-Owsley KY-Pike KY-Pulaski KY-
Rockcastle KY-
722 PM EST Sun Feb 28 2021

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR 
EASTERN ESTILL, SOUTHEASTERN JOHNSON, MARTIN, NORTH CENTRAL LAUREL, 
NORTH CENTRAL PULASKI, ROCKCASTLE, CENTRAL BREATHITT, NORTHERN 
FLOYD, JACKSON, NORTHWESTERN KNOTT, SOUTHERN LEE, SOUTHEASTERN 
MAGOFFIN, OWSLEY AND NORTHWESTERN PIKE COUNTIES...

At 722 PM EST, Doppler radar indicated slow moving thunderstorms 
with very heavy rainfall continue to slowly sink south through the 
warned area. Flooding is ongoing in many locations.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Prestonsburg, Mount Vernon, Jackson, McKee, Inez, Booneville, 
  Boone, Martin, Forest Hills, Warfield, Allen, Elkatawa, Gentry, 
  Yeadon, Inverness, Curt, Dumont, Chenowee, Quicksand and Noctor.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3733 8450 3749 8445 3747 8437 3754 8435
      3754 8354 3763 8317 3779 8270 3795 8258
      3796 8253 3776 8231 3768 8230 3765 8223
      3720 8477 3736 8456

$$

GREIF

814 
WGUS83 KJKL 010314
FLSJKL

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1014 PM EST Sun Feb 28 2021

KYC025-065-071-109-115-119-125-129-153-159-189-195-199-203-010324-
/O.CAN.KJKL.FA.W.0009.000000T0000Z-210301T0500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Breathitt KY-Estill KY-Floyd KY-Jackson KY-Johnson KY-Knott KY-
Laurel KY-Lee KY-Magoffin KY-Martin KY-Owsley KY-Pike KY-Pulaski KY-
Rockcastle KY-
1014 PM EST Sun Feb 28 2021

...FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR EASTERN ESTILL, SOUTHEASTERN 
JOHNSON, MARTIN, NORTH CENTRAL LAUREL, NORTH CENTRAL PULASKI, 
ROCKCASTLE, CENTRAL BREATHITT, NORTHERN FLOYD, JACKSON, NORTHWESTERN 
KNOTT, SOUTHERN LEE, SOUTHEASTERN MAGOFFIN, OWSLEY AND NORTHWESTERN 
PIKE COUNTIES...

The threat for flash flooding increased over the area earlier this 
evening. Therefore this areal flood warning was replaced by a flash 
flood warning. Please refer to that bulletin for more information.

LAT...LON 3733 8450 3749 8445 3747 8437 3754 8435
      3754 8354 3763 8317 3779 8270 3795 8258
      3796 8253 3776 8231 3768 8230 3765 8223
      3720 8477 3736 8456

$$

GREIF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
143 PM EST Sun Feb 28 2021

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1202 AM EST SUN FEB 28 2021

Hourly grids have been freshened up based on observation, radar,
and short term model trends. A relative lull in activity is
occurring across the southeastern portions of the area, with rain
rates across the north currently lower than what was observed
overnight. Runoff from this continues and low lying flooding is
likely still ongoing in several areas from around the Mtn Parkway
north. Convective allowing models continue to have more robust
convection late this afternoon and beyond with higher rain rates
and some potential for gusty winds. This will lead to additional
flooding concerns or prolong flooding in the north.

Overall, additional QPF for this event continues to be highest
generally from the Hal Rogers Parkway and KY 80 corridor and to
the north and overall leanest across the headwaters of the
Cumberland basin and along the VA border. With that in mind,
confidence in reaching flood stage is lower for Pineville on the
Cumberland and for points on the Big Sandy.

UPDATE Issued at 738 AM EST SUN FEB 28 2021

The better moisture transport is shifting northward into northern
Kentucky and that is allowing the ongoing precipitation in eastern
Kentucky to wind down a bit. This will provide a bit of a lull to
the area before the front starts to move back south later on. We
have had many reports of flooding in Menifee county with the rain
overnight. With more rain moving in later, many areas are
certainly primed for flash flooding later on.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 400 AM EST SUN FEB 28 2021

A warm front is lifting northward across east Kentucky early this
morning, with the rain shield now pushed northward into northern
and northeast Kentucky. Areas farther south are seeing a much
needed break from the heavier rain. The current trends are
expected to hold through early this afternoon, with the heavy rain
threat focused across the northern areas, particularly north of
the Mountain Parkway through the morning hours. Temperatures will
surge into the 60s today with some places likely reaching the
lower 70s. Breezy southwest winds are also expected with wind
gusts up to 25 mph at times.

A fast moving shortwave is expected to help push the boundary
back to the south as a cold front by late this afternoon. PW's
will surge to near 1.50 inches across much of the area which is
near record territory for late February. This will be a very moist
environment this front will be moving into. We are expecting at
least 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE to push as far northeast as south
central Kentucky this afternoon. This should aid in some robust
thunderstorm development this afternoon. Fortunately, the
instability axis weakens considerably as it gets into east
Kentucky. However, some good moisture flux from these storms will
likely penetrate deep into the area, setting the stage for some
very heavy rainfall this evening into tonight. Rainfall rates
could approach 1 inch per hour at times. Given our fairly low
flash flood guidance areawide, this could really cause some
problems as we head into the evening hours. However, the heavier
axis of rain does look to be more progressive which limit the the
heavier rainfall to some degree. The heavier rainfall axis will
shift south of the area by late evening, but some stratiform rain
will continue in the wake of the front through the overnight
hours, before tapering off from north to south late Sunday night
or early Monday. Given the strong flow aloft, if better
instability does develop into any portion of east Kentucky, a
threat for some strong winds will emerge with the thunderstorms.
The area is currently in a marginal risk for severe storms with
the instability being the key lacking factor right now.

Monday is shaping up to be drier, but cold advection behind the
exiting front will keep temperatures in the 40s (Nearly 25 degrees
colder than Sunday).

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 502 AM EST SUN FEB 28 2021

Models seem to be coming into better agreement for the period.
Overall, conditions are looking quiet, with just one system to
contend with early on.

As the period starts, strong high pressure will be moving
southeast toward us with a reinforcing push of colder and drier
air. This will bring dry weather through at least Tuesday. An
upper level low currently near the Four Corners region will head
east across the southern CONUS, and represents what looks like our
only potential for precip in the long term period at this time.
The latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF now agree on most of the
precipitation with this system staying to our south. The NAM and
Canadian model still have precipitation extending further north
into our area. However, there is greater confidence in the ECMWF
and GFS, especially at that time range, and nothing more than
chance POPs are being used in the forecast, centered on late
Tuesday night. Once this system departs on Wednesday, another cold
front is expected to pass on Wednesday night and bring a
reinforcement of colder and drier air to finish the week. Another
system coming out of the southwest CONUS, which at one point
looked like it could affect us late in the week, now looks like
it will be slower and further south and probably not affect us
this week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2021

VFR was reported south of the band of rain moving across the
northwest half to two thirds of the area. Within the rain, mainly
MVFR was reported with some IFR vis reductions in the heaviest of
the rain. This area of rain and reductions into the MVFR range
will slowly sag southeast over the next 6 to 9 hours as a cold
front approaches and the intensity should increase. Behind the
boundary late tonight some IFR ceilings are expected for a few
hours. As the front pushes further southeast on Monday gradual
improvements back into the MVFR range and VFR ranges are
anticipated late in the period. Over the first 6 hours of the
period rain and some embedded heavier showers or thunderstorms
will mix some of the higher momentum from aloft down. At this
time, thunderstorm chances remain rather low, but look the highest
for KJKL, KLOZ, and KSME. Gusts to around 25kt will be possible
at times with a stray gust around 30kt possible. A locally higher
gust may occur in any thunderstorm. Behind the front, winds will
shift to the west and northwest during the 4Z to 11Z timeframe.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Monday morning for KYZ044-050>052-058>060-
068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...JP

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
153 PM EST Sun Feb 28 2021

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-012200-
Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle-
Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan-
Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott-
Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike-
Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville,
Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna,
Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee,
Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns,
Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro,
Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Sandy Hook, West Liberty,
Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright,
Beattyville, Jackson, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard,
Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run,
Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson
153 PM EST Sun Feb 28 2021

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight.

Heavy rainfall, aided by a few thunderstorms, should be focused
in areas near and to the north of the Mountain Parkway through
late this afternoon. The axis of heaviest rain and thunderstorms
will then push southeast across the rest of eastern Kentucky this
evening through tonight. This rain will lead to a threat for
flooding of streams, creeks, and rivers. In addition, flash
flooding is also possible.

In addition, any thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening,
especially in locations from the Mountain Parkway and to the
south, could produce gusty winds of 35 mph or stronger.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Flooding along portions of the Cumberland, Red, and Kentucky
river basins will continue through the early portion of the week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any instances of flooding or
rainfall amounts over an inch through tonight.

KAS/HAL/JP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1026 AM EST SUN FEB 28 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       WHITLEY CITY            36.72N 84.48W
02/28/2021  E1.01 INCH       MCCREARY           KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TWENTY-FOUR HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL.

&&

TAB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1030 AM EST SUN FEB 28 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0835 AM     FLOOD            WENDOVER                37.12N 83.36W
02/28/2021                   LESLIE             KY   911 CALL CENTER

            SECTIONS OF CAMP CREEK ROAD ALONG CAMP CREEK
            NEAR WENDOVER-HURRICANE CREEK ROAD ARE FLOOD
            AND IMPASSABLE.

0835 AM     FLOOD            1 SE DRYHILL            37.21N 83.36W
02/28/2021                   LESLIE             KY   911 CALL CENTER

            KY 3425, DRY HILL MACINTOSH ROAD, IS FLOODED
            AND IMPASSABLE BETWEEN THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY
            AND OWLS NEST ROAD.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1034 AM EST SUN FEB 28 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 AM     FLOOD            JARVIS                  36.95N 83.89W
02/28/2021                   KNOX               KY   PUBLIC

            KY 229 WAS FLOODED AND IMPASSABLE AT ELAM
            BRANCH ALONG RICHLAND CREEK.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1046 AM EST SUN FEB 28 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0832 AM     FLOOD            1 SSW FLORRESS          37.88N 83.18W
02/28/2021                   MORGAN             KY   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: RIVER/CREEK OVERFLOWING;
            CROPLAND/YARD/BASEMENT FLOODING.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1049 AM EST SUN FEB 28 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1130 AM     FLOOD            1 SW PIPPA PASSES       37.33N 82.88W
02/27/2021                   KNOTT              KY   BROADCAST MEDIA

            WATER OVER TRACE FORK OF CANEY ROAD DAMAGING
            THE ROADWAY AND MAKING IT IMPASSABLE.

1001 AM     FLOOD            SILER                   36.94N 84.04W
02/27/2021                   KNOX               KY   PUBLIC

            HIGH WATER OVER THE ROAD IN THE HAZEL FORK
            CREEK COMMUNITY NEAR GRAY.

&&