Areal Flood Warning 19, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1225 AM EST Mon Mar 1 2021

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1130 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2021

This actually makes the second forecast update that has been
issued so far this shift, but due to how busy we have been with
flooding, no AFD was issued with the previous update. The first
update removed the late afternoon period from the zone forecast
product, and freshened up the hourly forecast grids with the
latest hourly obs. For this update, the forecast was generally in
good shape with no major changes needed. A few tweaks were made to
the orientation and progression of a slow moving cold front and
the precipitation that is ongoing along it. The changes that were
made to the grids not significant, but the small changes that were
made did freshen up the current forecast products a bit. The
latest obs were again used to establish new trends in the hourly
forecast grids. The updated zones have already been issued.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 530 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2021

Late this afternoon, an upper level low was rotating across the
Hudson Bay region with a trough axis extending southwest into the
Southern Rockies while an upper level ridge as centered near the
southern tip of FL and extending north into the western Atlantic
and southwest into the southern Gulf of Mexico. Multiple
shortwaves in southwest flow were moving from the southern Plains
across the OH Valley and into the mid Atlantic states while a
more robust northern stream shortwave was working into the western
Great Lakes. At the surface, an area of low pressure was centered
in the upper peninsula of MI vicinity with a cold front trailing
south to near the confluence of the OH and MS Rivers and then
south and southwest into the Southern Plains. Meanwhile, a warm
front extended east across the OH Valley into the central
Appalachians. A sfc trough/differential heating boundary extended
from near Rockcastle County east to around Martin County with rain
cooled air in the lower 60s to the north and upper 60s to around
70 readings to the south.

Locally, convection was occurring near and just north of this
with torrential rainfall rates and probably a few wind gusts.
Copious amounts of moisture is being transported into the area at
low and mid levels. Divergence at 300 mb is analyzed across the
central portion of the area with some weak frontogenesis in the
925 to 850 mb layer. PW is in the 1.2 to 1.4 inch range at the
present time with the plume expected to shift southeast.
Instability remains on the limited side, and bulk shear is
generally overwhelming or not balanced with the instability.
There is some potential for convection to have more of a balance
of shear and instability further southwest over the next couple of
hours. However, the heavy rain rates on top of already saturated
ground remains the greatest concern with convection. Multiple
Flood Warnings and an embedded flash flood warning is in effect.
The heaviest rain axis over the next 3 hours should be from
Pulaski County east to near Jackson to Paintsville. As the cold
front approaches from the northwest and the shortwave trough moves
across the Great Lakes and then the 500 mb trough axis approaches
from the west tonight and into tomorrow, the axis of heaviest
rain will shift southeast this evening into tonight and eventually
become a bit more progressive.

The heavier rain tonight into early on Monday morning should
generally be from near the Mountain Parkway and points to the
south. The axis of heavier rain tonight should be from the Lake
Cumberland region east northeast near the Hal Rogers parkway and
Ky 80 corridor into Pike County. Thus, the threat for flooding or
flash flooding should increase through the evening in locations
further to the south and southeast not currently in a Flood
Warning or Flash Flood Warning. On top of all that, as the water
from the recent rounds of rain and rain tonight collects into the
larger creeks and area rivers, rivers across the region will
continue to rise or rise again. Some points in the KY basin and
Red River basin are already in flood and rainfall tonight should
lead to rises on the Cumberland with Barbourville and Williamsburg
most probable to reach or exceed flood stage. If rain were to be
linger a bit longer nearer to the VA border and east into the
Sandy than is currently expected, flooding could occur at
Pineville on the Cumberland, Jackson on the North Fk of the KY,
Paintsville on the Levisa Fk Big Sandy, and perhaps Hazard on the
KY.

Rain will taper off from northwest to southeast overnight as the
cold front pushes toward the crest of the Appalachians and then
well southeast of the area during the day on Monday as the 500 mb
trough axis shifts east of the area with height rises expected
from late Monday into Monday night. The threat for additional
flash flooding will diminish as convection diminishes later this
evening, but high water should persist on creeks and streams as
well as area rivers through the night and into Monday. A secondary
front should weaken as it sags into the OH Valley late Tue and
into Tue night, with sfc high pressure nosing into the area.

Behind the boundary on Monday, temperatures will be cooler a few
degrees below normal. Drier air moving into the area should lead
to a somewhat cold night Monday night with deeper northern and
eastern valley locations dipping into the lower 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 610 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2021

Overall, a fairly uneventful extended is in store. We begin Tuesday
under the influence of high pressure and a colder airmass that moved
in behind the cold front that passed during the short term.
Temperatures Tuesday will run slightly below seasonal normals from
the upper 40s to lower 50s. Models have come to better agreement for
the system impacting the region on Wednesday. An upper level
southern stream wave, initially over the Southern Plains, will be
traveling east, dampening as it does so. It looks to make it near
our area over Wednesday, supporting a low at the surface over the
Deep South. The general consensus is for the upper level wave and
associated surface features to be confined further south, keeping
most of the precip out of our area for the most part. There is still
some guidance suggesting some of this precip could make its way into
portions of our area, especially the southern portions. However, in
general, the trend has been further south and if this trend
continues the PoPs may need to be lowered further or shifted south.

Beyond Wednesday, things continue to look quiet thankfully. After a
brief time of warmer temperatures in the mid 50s Wednesday,
temperatures again cool down to slightly below seasonal norms as we
sit under an area of northwest flow. The flow begins to amplify
traveling towards the end of the period. An upper level low moves
over the Four Corners region by Friday. There is currently decent
agreement in keeping this low moving south as it weakens and travels
east, keeping any associated weather south of our area with it.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM EST MON MAR 1 2021

Light to moderate rain showers will continue across eastern
Kentucky through out the night, but should begin to finally taper
off between 10 and 12Z this morning. Conditions at the TAF sites
will vary widely, depending on the intensity of any passing rain
showers, and the amount of fog that occurs from time to time. IFR
to VLIFR VSBYs and CIGs will not be out of the question at this
the point. Once the rain begins to taper off early Monday morning,
conditions will steadily improve. We should begin to see MVFR
conditions by sun rise, and VFR conditions from 17Z onward for all
five TAF sites. Winds may pick up a bit during the afternoon from
the northwest at around 10KTs, with gusts to around 15KTs possible
at times. Clouds should steadily scatter out from north to south
through out the morning, giving way to partly cloudy conditions by
the end of the day.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 7 AM EST this morning for KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...HAS
AVIATION...AR

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1141 PM EST Sun Feb 28 2021

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-020745-
Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle-
Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan-
Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott-
Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike-
Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville,
Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna,
Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee,
Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns,
Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro,
Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Sandy Hook, West Liberty,
Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright,
Beattyville, Jackson, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard,
Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run,
Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson
1141 PM EST Sun Feb 28 2021

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY...

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Rounds of light to moderate rain showers will continue across the
area tonight, before finally tapering off toward dawn. Many
locations will continue to experience flooding overnight, with any
additional rainfall only adding to the ongoing flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Flooding along portions of the Cumberland, Red, and Kentucky
river basins will continue through the early portion of the week.
High water is also expected through Tuesday in the Big Sandy
River basin.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any instances of flooding or
rainfall amounts over an inch through tonight.

JP/HAS/AR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
152 AM EST MON MAR 1 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 AM     FLASH FLOOD      HELECHAWA               37.76N 83.34W
03/01/2021                   WOLFE              KY   PUBLIC

            EXIT OF MOUNTAIN PARKWAY AT LEE CITY IS
            CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.

&&

KAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
154 AM EST MON MAR 1 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0737 PM     FLASH FLOOD      LEE CITY                37.74N 83.34W
02/28/2021                   WOLFE              KY   911 CALL CENTER

            WATER RESCUE.

&&

KAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
202 AM EST MON MAR 1 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0117 AM     FLASH FLOOD      MCANDREWS               37.57N 82.27W
03/01/2021                   PIKE               KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WATER FLOWING OVER HIGHWAY 199.

&&

KAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
211 AM EST MON MAR 1 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0151 AM     FLASH FLOOD      3 NNW KIMPER            37.53N 82.37W
03/01/2021                   PIKE               KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HIGHWAY 194 FLOODED BELOW MEATHOUSE.

&&

KAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
252 AM EST MON MAR 1 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 PM     FLASH FLOOD      MARTIN                  37.57N 82.76W
02/28/2021                   FLOYD              KY   911 CALL CENTER

            2 TO 4 FEET OF WATER INUNDATING DOWNTOWN
            MARTIN. REPORTS OF NUMEROUS WATER RESCUES
            ACROSS THE COUNTY.

&&

KAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
258 AM EST MON MAR 1 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1210 AM     FLOOD            1 SSE LIBERTY ROAD      37.90N 83.29W
03/01/2021                   MORGAN             KY   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            CORRECTS PREVIOUS FLASH FLOOD REPORT FROM 1
            SSE LIBERTY ROAD. HIGHWAY 460 SHUTDOWN DUE
            TO HIGH WATER AT MILE MARKER 15.

&&

KAS