Areal Flood Advisory 2, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
541 PM EST Mon Jan 25 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 541 PM EST MON JAN 25 2021

Surface low pressure over the Ozarks will shift eastward through
the overnight, riding up the Ohio River Valley. This slow moving
system will lift a warm front northward through eastern Kentucky
during the overnight period and then a cold front through the area
by Thursday morning.

WPC maintained an area of a marginal threat of excessive
rainfall for the Commonwealth through tonight. Additional
convection is firing upstream and short term high resolution
models show that activity riding northeast into and through our
area during the overnight. SPC mesoanalysis shows an upstream
environment of 250-500 J/kg MUCAPE and effective shear of 35-60
kts. RAP forecasts show this environment lifting northeast into
our area and SPC HREF suggests that mean 250-500 MUCAPE and shear
will lift into eastern Kentucky over the next several hours. Thus
maintained thunder through the evening as yet another round of
precipitation pushes through the region. Already seeing a few
stronger cells being highlighted by upstream WFOs. So an isolated
strong storm with mainly gusty winds can not be completely ruled
out. Brief, locally heavy rainfall will also be possible. Excessive
runoff will cause local streams and rivers to swell through the
day Tuesday. The current HWO has this handled.

Once we get through tonight, sensible weather settles down
considerably. Tomorrow, dry weather and sunshine will lift
temperatures to around 60 across the south, and in the 50s across
our north, where lingering clouds will help keep temps slightly
cooler.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 541 PM EST MON JAN 25 2021

We begin the extended portion of the forecast Wednesday in a brief
period of modest ridging aloft across the eastern Ohio Valley. Just
to our west, a shortwave trough rides over the Middle Mississippi
Valley. Ridging across the Rockies and western Plains separates this
shortwave trough from a deeper trough of the northwestern US coast.
The system at the surface that is currently bringing the widespread
rainfall in the near term will have moved well off to our east at
this point. Meanwhile, another area of low pressure will be
beginning to develop in the deep south.

The shortwave trough to our west will beginning to move over our
area through the day Wednesday, while the surface low will continue
to travel east and northeast across the Southeast, sending precip
towards our area. Generally, precip is set to begin impacting the
area not too long after 18z Wednesday afternoon. Most guidance is in
fair agreement over the pattern evolution, other than the Canadian
keeping the shortwave further to the west a little longer,
consequently delaying the initial onset of precipitation. However,
given that this solution is not as favored in ensembles, have
elected to put less stock in it. With the surface low passing to our
south, our area is kept in the cooler sector, allowing for some snow
to mix its way in. Generally this change over will happen as a
gradual transition from northwest to southeast, with the exception
of the higher terrain generally transitioning earlier. Accumulations
look to be modest, generally less than an inch, though higher
amounts are possible in the higher terrain.

Generally the precip will exit out to the east by Thursday morning
as the surface low pushes east off the coast. Heights aloft will be
on the rise through the day as ridging moves in from the west, while
high pressure dominates at the surface. All combined, conditions
will stay clear and dry through the first part of the weekend.
However, the dry weather does not last. Another upper level trough
will work its way towards the region over the second half of the
weekend, supporting the development of a low at the surface over the
Plains. This sends along our next round of precip, generally
beginning Saturday afternoon. However, while there is more agreement
over the general pattern, the specifics around the evolution of both
the features aloft and at the surface are still not well resolved.
So, have kept more in line with the thinking of the previous
forecaster and kept the PoPs constrained to just likely given all
the uncertainty.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 104 PM EST MON JAN 25 2021

Challenging forecast this afternoon. Warm frontal boundary is
lifting northward and is approaching the KY/TN state line. First
round of moderate to locally heavy rain which is currently passing
through the area has some thunder associated with it but activity
appears to be waning as it lifts further north and east. Another
round of moderate to heavy rain continues to take shape further
west and should affect our more northern terminals with time. IFR
or lower flight conditions improve a bit south of the warm front
which is expected to lift north through eastern Kentucky later
this evening and tonight. Thus VSBYS/CIGS will only gradually
improve until the boundary clears the area during the overnight
period. Thunder will continue to be possible late this afternoon
into early this evening. Winds will generally rise to between 5
and 10 kts and become more southerly with time. Additionally, a
strong low level jet in place across the boundary means the threat
of low level wind shear will continue until the surface boundary
lifts out of the region.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...HAS
AVIATION...RAY

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson KY
433 PM EST Mon Jan 25 2021

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-261100-
Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle-
Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan-
Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott-
Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike-
Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville,
Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna,
Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee,
Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns,
Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro,
Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Sandy Hook, West Liberty,
Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright,
Beattyville, Jackson, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard,
Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run,
Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson
433 PM EST Mon Jan 25 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

A slow moving storm system will bring locally heavy rainfall to
the area tonight. Some minor flooding will be possible in low
lying areas. Thunderstorms will be possible, mainly through the
evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Some significant rises will occur along portions of the Kentucky
and Red River basins on Tuesday.

There is a chance of snow Wednesday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

GEOGERIAN/JMW/RAY

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
433 PM EST Mon Jan 25 2021

KYZ087-088-115-118-120-252215-
Perry-Pike-Bell-Harlan-Letcher-
433 PM EST Mon Jan 25 2021

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT HARLAN...BELL...
LETCHER...SOUTHEASTERN PERRY AND SOUTHERN PIKE COUNTIES...

At 432 PM EST, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from Mousie to near Wilkerson. Movement was
east at 50 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Pikeville, Whitesburg, Harlan, Pineville, Middlesboro, Letcher,
Cumberland, Jenkins, Loyall, Elkhorn City, Evarts, Fleming-Neon,
Lynch, Benham, Vicco, Wallins Creek, Blackey, Varilla, Louellen and
Premium.

If outdoors, seek shelter inside a building.

LAT...LON 3659 8393 3665 8395 3694 8351 3690 8351
      3689 8341 3701 8319 3713 8322 3723 8307
      3717 8298 3727 8275 3744 8259 3744 8211
      3727 8235 3712 8272 3698 8287 3690 8287
      3685 8307 3674 8314 3658 8369
TIME...MOT...LOC 2132Z 275DEG 60KT 3740 8286 3656 8397

KAS

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