Special Weather Statement, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1242 AM EST Sun Dec 19 2021

.AVIATION...
[Through 06Z Monday]

Showers are moving up from north-central will affect SGJ and in
the vicinity of GNV for the next couple of hours. Otherwise,
guidance is still supportive for low clouds and patchy fog to
develop over TAF sites near and after 06z with a a chance of IFR
in the pre-dawn hours due to low ceilings. Ceilings begin to lift
after sunrise with MVFR CIGs in the morning and potentially
lingering into the afternoon as scattered showers affect the TAF
sites. Light south sfc winds tonight will become southwest Sunday,
then shift to westerly late in the day as a cold front moves
through the region. Low stratus will be possible tonight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [850 PM EST]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Predominantly dry conditions for this afternoon with chances for
showers occuring for areas south of the I-10 corridor later this
evening. Showers advancing ahead of the approaching cold front
will reach the westernmost portions of the forecast area by early
Sunday morning along with possible patchy fog forming along the
coast and potentially reaching inland during the early AM hours. High
temperatures for today will reach up into the lower to mid 80s
for inland areas and in upper 70s along the coastline.

.SHORT TERM [Sunday Through Monday Night]...

Showers with potential thunderstorms will move through the
forecast area over the course of the weekend and into the
beginning of next week as a cold front advances toward the region
from out of the northwest. Front will advance into southeast
Georgia on Sunday bringing showers and potential isolated
thunderstorms with the front stalling over the forecast area
overnight. South-southwesterly flow will build in on Monday and
Tuesday with showers and a chance for thunderstorms building
through the area in conjunction with a passing mid/upper level
trough that is expected to move off over the Atlantic by Wednesday
morning. Temperatures will drop with advance of the cold front
into the the region on Sunday with high temps going from the upper
70s and lower 80s down into the 50s and 60s on Monday and Tuesday.
Overnight low temperatures will similarly drop from out of the
upper 50s and lower 60s down into the 40s and 30s.

.LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Saturday]...

Following the frontal passage, cold dry air will settle in over
the southeastern US with initially breezy winds from out of the
northwest becoming less blustery and more out of the southwest-
west by the end of the week. Dry weather and clearing skies will
build in through the later part of the week with temperatures
going through a warming trend with temps building to near and
above the climatological average by the end of the week. Low
temperatures on Wednesday are expected to be in the 30s and 40s
with a potential for late night and early morning frost.

.MARINE...

High pressure will continue to build to the east through tonight.
A cold front approaches from the northwest Sunday morning and
will move southeast across the area on Sunday. This boundary will
stall across central Florida Sunday night into Monday. An area of
low pressure will develop in the Gulf and move east along this
boundary Monday night through Tuesday. This low will then move
northeast, enter the coastal waters and continue up the east coast
Tuesday night through Wednesday. Small craft advisory conditions
are likely Sunday night into Wednesday over the local waters.

Rip Currents: SE GA: Moderate through Sunday
 			  NE FL: Moderate through Sunday

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  75  47  55  44  53 /  60  10  40  70  80
SSI  76  52  57  50  60 /  60  20  50  80  90
JAX  78  55  60  53  64 /  50  20  60  80  80
SGJ  79  60  65  60  69 /  40  30  70  80  80
GNV  79  58  64  55  66 /  40  10  60  80  70
OCF  80  60  68  59  70 /  30  10  60  80  70

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

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