Special Weather Statement, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
119 PM EDT Tue Aug 31 2021

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Wednesday]

Ida's remnants will continue to slowly sweep northeastward through
the period. A strong broken line of thunderstorms is sweeping
eastward into SE GA, with another developing broken band west of
I-95. Winds are breezy outside of storms, around 10-15 kts gusting
to 15-20 kts, with even higher wind gusts possible during storms.
In the late night/early morning hours of Wednesday, light rain
showers will begin to spread eastward across the area, spreading
to most TAF sites by around 15Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [953 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

The remnants of Ida will move across northeastern Mississippi
early this morning, across northern Alabama and along the border
of Tennessee through the afternoon, and then towards the
Tennessee/North Carolina border by Wednesday morning. Deep
southwesterly flow will prevail today. An east coast sea breeze
will try to develop this afternoon, but it will be pinned to the
coast east of I-95. Tail end moisture with bands of showers and
storms was moving into the Florida Panhandle early this morning,
and this moisture will shift into the western half of the area
through the day. Broken bands of showers and storms are forecast
to move into the western portion of the area by the afternoon, and
slowly push eastward. There is a Marginal Risk of Severe Storms
west of a line from Waycross the Lake City. The main threats will
be strong gusty winds. A couple storms could also rotate with
funnel clouds and an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. Drier
air is forecast to remain east of I-75 in northeast Florida, and
only isolated to widely scattered convection is forecast for this
afternoon. Highs today will be in the upper 80s to around 90 for
the western portion of the area and at the beaches, and the low to
mid 90s elsewhere.

As the remnants of Ida shift towards the TN/NC border overnight,
tail end moisture will surge into the Big Ben and Suwannee Valley.
Precipitable water values will increase to 2.2-2.4 inches by
Wednesday morning. Convection will move inland from the Gulf after
midnight, with scattered to numerous showers and embedded storms
moving across northeast Florida by Wednesday morning. Locally
heavy rainfall is possible in the Suwannee Valley before daybreak
on Wednesday. Overnight lows will be in the 70s.

.SHORT TERM [Wednesday Through Thursday]...

The remnants of Ida will move from the southern Appalachians
towards the Northeast on Wednesday, with a trailing frontal
boundary moving into central Georgia by the evening. Showers and
embedded storms will be ongoing across the much of the area, and
locally heavy rainfall is possible across the Suwannee Valley.
Drier air will begin to wrap into southeast Georgia in the
afternoon, and rainfall chances will diminish in the late
afternoon. The frontal boundary will push across southeast Georgia
Wednesday night and towards the I-10 corridor by Thursday
morning before stalling. Showers and embedded storms will
continue along/south of the I-10 corridor Wednesday night,
especially towards north central Florida. Dry conditions are
expected across southeast Georgia on Thursday, with scattered
showers and storms south of I-10 through the day. The upper trough
axis will push through the area Thursday night, and dry conditions
are expected overnight.

Highs on Wednesday will be in the mid 80s to near 90 degrees,
coolest across the Suwannee Valley where showers/storms will be
ongoing in the morning. Highs on Thursday will be near 90 to the
lower 90s. Lows Thursday morning will be in the low to mid 70s.
Drier and cooler air will filter into the area Friday morning, and
lows will be in the upper 60s across interior southeast Georgia,
the Suwannee Valley and the I-10 corridor, and the lower 70s
elsewhere.

.LONG TERM [Friday Through Tuesday]...

Upper trough axis will push south through the area on Friday, but
the southern portion of the trough is forecast to cutoff into an
upper low either over the area or just east in the Atlantic waters
Friday afternoon and remain through Sunday. Only low chances for
showers/storms are expected each day, with 20% across southeast
Georgia and 20-30% across northeast Florida. Highs will be in the
upper 80s to lower 90s each day. Overnight lows will be cooler in
the mid to upper 60s to around 70 across the interior and the low
70s for coastal areas.

Another upper trough will push across the conus with a shortwave
trough moving along the northern Gulf coast early next week. Rain
chances are expected to increase as deep southwest flow develops.

.MARINE...

The remnants of Ida will move across the Southeast today. The
trough from the remnants of Ida will begin to move towards the
area waters today, move over the waters on Wednesday and Thursday,
then move to the south late in the week. As the trough moves
towards the region, southerly winds will develop today then shift
to southwesterly Wednesday and Thursday. Winds will increase on
Wednesday and could reach Small Craft Advisory levels over the
offshore waters.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk of rip currents at the east coast
beaches through Wednesday.

.FIRE WEATHER...
The remnants of Ida will move across the Southeast today. The
trough associated with Ida will begin to move towards the area
today, move over the area on Wednesday and then south of the area
by the end of the week. Winds will become southwesterly and
increase to around 10 mph with higher gusts this afternoon. High
dispersions are expected across the interior this afternoon. A
weak east coast sea breeze will develop, but be pinned east of
I-95. Deep moisture will push across the area overnight, and
scattered to numerous showers will move inland from the Gulf of
Mexico by daybreak on Wednesday. Much drier air will then move
into the area Thursday and Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  73  88  71  90  69 /  30  20  10  10  10
SSI  76  89  75  89  74 /  30  30  20  20  10
JAX  75  87  74  92  72 /  40  60  20  30  10
SGJ  75  85  74  90  72 /  30  50  20  30  10
GNV  74  82  74  89  70 /  40  80  30  30  10
OCF  74  81  74  88  71 /  50  90  50  40  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
153 PM EDT Tue Aug 31 2021

GAZ132>136-151-152-250-311845-
Pierce GA-Bacon GA-Appling GA-Coffee GA-Jeff Davis GA-Brantley GA-
Wayne GA-Northern Ware GA-
153 PM EDT Tue Aug 31 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of east central Coffee,
Pierce, north central Brantley, north central Ware, Bacon,
southwestern Wayne, eastern Jeff Davis and Appling Counties through
245 PM EDT...

At 153 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles northeast of Lumber City to near
Nicholls to Jamestown. Movement was northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Waycross, Baxley, Hazlehurst, Alma, Blackshear, Patterson, Graham,
Surrency, Plant Hatch and Screven.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3195 8239 3196 8238 3194 8238 3193 8232
      3195 8231 3193 8230 3194 8228 3192 8225
      3190 8217 3179 8216 3140 8182 3123 8236
      3156 8265 3192 8267 3193 8259 3196 8256
      3195 8249 3196 8248 3197 8250 3197 8247
TIME...MOT...LOC 1753Z 241DEG 33KT 3202 8262 3160 8259 3132 8235

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

NGUYEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
210 PM EDT TUE AUG 31 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0156 PM     TSTM WND GST     ALMA                    31.54N 82.48W
08/31/2021  M43 MPH          Bacon              GA   ASOS

            THE AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVING SYSTEM AT THE ALMA BACON
            COUNTY AIRPORT MEASURED A PEAK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
            GUST OF 43 MPH.

&&

NELSON

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