Special Weather Statement, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
348 PM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Henri made landfall this afternoon at 12:15 PM in New England, and
an upper level trough remains in place over the U.S. East Coast.
Upper level impulses rounding the base of the trough will continue
chances for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms into
tonight. GOES-16 air mass imagery indicates that there is a deep,
moist air mass over the area, and PWATs are still above 2 inches.
Storms this afternoon/evening will have the potential to produce
locally heavy rainfall and minor flooding. Strong gusty winds and
frequent lightning strikes will also be possible.

Showers and storms will begin to settle down after sunset with
most locations becoming dry by midnight or shortly after.
Precipitation could last a little longer over the Atlantic coastal
waters, fueled by warm sea surface temperatures. Skies will be
mostly cloudy early tonight, then become partly cloudy, which
could allow a glimpse of the full moon (the "Blue Moon"). Low
temperatures tonight will be in the mid-to-upper 70s.

.SHORT TERM [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...

Monday, the upper level trough will slowly move offshore into the
western Atlantic while weakening throughout the day. Henri will
weaken over the Northeast, which will contribute to weakening of
the trough. Deep moisture will reside over the area with PWATs
expected to remain above 2 inches. Ample moisture and mid/upper
level disturbances associated with the trough will support
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. The highest
precipitation chances will be in a band of moisture stretching
from the Live Oak, FL area in the Suwannee Valley towards the SE
GA coast.

Tuesday, a southwest-northwest oriented boundary left over from
troughing along the East Coast will be just north of the area, and
southwesterly flow shifting to southerly will keep deep moisture
in place over the area. Numerous showers and storms will be
possible again with the highest precipitation chances between the
I-95 and I-75 corridors where the sea breezes are expected to
converge.

Temperatures Monday and Tuesday will be near normal with highs in
the upper 80s and lower 90s and lows in the 70s. Heat indices
could reach 100-105 degrees each afternoon.

.LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Sunday]...

High pressure will build back over the region, and flow will
shift to become southeasterly mid-week then easterly late in the
week. Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue,
but we will fall back into a more typical summertime pattern.
Models suggest a weak wave of low pressure could approach the area
from the east late in the week, but there is still significant
uncertainty surrounding this feature. Temperatures will trend near
normal through the long term period.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Monday]

Numerous showers and storms were developing across the Suwannee
Valley this afternoon and moving east. These storms are expected
to move near/across the northeast Florida TAF sites over the next
several hours. A shortwave will move southward across southeast
Georgia late in the day, and storms are forecast to redevelop
across southeast Georgia and move towards KSSI by the early
evening. Restrictions are expected in/around showers/storms.
Westerly winds around 10 knots will diminish this evening, with
west to west southwest winds around 10 knots on Monday. Showers
and embedded storms are forecast to move in quickly from the Gulf
Monday morning as a surface trough moves into the area, and
showers/storms will be near the TAF sites before the end of the
TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...

An upper level trough positioned over the U.S. East Coast today
will lift to the northeast over the western Atlantic and weaken on
Monday. Southwesterly winds tonight and Monday will steer daily
showers and storms across the local waters. Tuesday, winds will
shift to southerly as high pressure begins to build back over the
area waters, then winds will shift to become southeasterly as the
Bermuda high strengthens mid-week. Late in the week, winds will
shift to become easterly as a wave of low pressure approaches from
the east. Easterly winds with longer fetch will result in
slightly higher wave heights, increasing to 3-5 ft nearshore and
4-6 ft offshore.

Rip Currents: Moderate Risk of rip currents at NE FL beaches
today, Low Risk at SE GA beaches today. Low Risk expected at all
area beaches Monday. Risk will trend back up towards Moderate
mid-week as winds shift to become onshore.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected Monday and
Tuesday, highest precipitation chances will be in the afternoons and
evenings. Expect gusty and erratic winds in and near storms.
Southwesterly flow will continue through Monday then shift to become
southerly on Tuesday. Weak transport winds will result in low
daytime dispersions over inland SE GA on Monday, generally along and
near the Altamaha River Basin. Patchy early morning fog will be
possible for inland areas the next couple days.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Minor flooding on the Suwannee River and minor to moderate on parts
of the Santa Fe River continues. Heavy rainfall today could prolong
ongoing river flooding.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  74  90  73  90  71 /  40  50  20  70  30
SSI  77  90  77  88  76 /  60  60  40  60  40
JAX  76  92  76  90  75 /  40  60  40  70  40
SGJ  77  92  75  88  74 /  40  50  40  50  40
GNV  76  92  74  89  73 /  20  50  40  70  30
OCF  75  92  74  90  73 /  20  30  40  60  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

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