Special Weather Statement, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
143 PM EDT Mon Aug 16 2021

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Tuesday]

Two waves of thunderstorms this afternoon. First wave is ongoing
moving west northwestward across the I-95 corridor and will
continue into SE GA through the afternoon. This activity will
bring gusty outflow up to 40 knots and brief IFR restrictions due
to heavy rain are to be expected with stronger storms. A second
wave will be along a convergent rain band associated with Tropical
Storm Fred which will pivot east northeastward across NE FL this
afternoon and evening. Convection may continue all the way across
NE FL and SE GA before diminishing or moving offshore around
midnight. More scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected on
Tuesday. Winds will remain east to east southeast through the
rest of the afternoon and evening outside of thunderstorm
influence. Winds will shift more southerly on Tuesday as Tropical
Storm Fred shifts further inland.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [944 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

TS Fred will make it's closest approach to our forecast area
during this time with our pressure gradient increasing a bit
further, with greater southeasterly winds up to 15-20 mph and
gusty. Deeper tropical moisture will overspread the area with
PWATs increasing to about 2.2 to 2.4 inches. Expect isolated to
scattered showers and potential storms expected over the area
waters and near or over the adjacent coastal zones through
sunrise, with HRRR and radar trends are in decent agreement with
this. The main convective coverage in the morning looks to be
along the coastal zones and up into southeast GA as far inland as
Hazlehurst. Then, by mid afternoon, a zone of low level
convergence appears to set up around the I-75 corridor with
numerous showers and storms firing in this area. This convection
will tend to develop additional convection due to outflows. All
this activity should be shifting generally northward at at quick
pace of about 20 mph. but training cells seem likely given fairly
uniform flow through the column. Given this setup, rainfall rates
close to 2 inches per hour will be possible and latest guidance
shows amounts of 2-4 inches possible for inland northeast FL. In
addition, SPC has shown a marginal risk for severe storms with the
main focus over the western zones, mainly west of US Highway 301
where more favored wind field and instability are expected. SRH is
not very high but could reach about 150-200 m2/s2 this afternoon
through midnight. Thus, we can't rule isolated rotating storm and
an isolated tornado. The convection should be winding down by late
evening hours. Abundant cloud cover will keep max temps in the
mid to upper 80s, and occasionally breezy east-southeast winds of
about 10-15 mph. After midnight tonight, lesser coverage of
showers but trailing rainbands from Fred are expected as the
system tracks northward, and thus will maintain chance of showers
and potential storms, though any heavy rainfall potential will be
limited/isolated.

.SHORT TERM [Tuesday Through Wednesday]...

By Tuesday morning, Fred is expected to be inland somewhere around
east-central AL near the GA border, continuing to slowly lift
northward toward the southern Appalachian mountains overnight.
Deep layer south-southwesterly flow will sustain high-end PWATs in
the 2-2.45" range over the area. Rounds of heavy showers will
bring widespread rainfall totals of 1-2" to the lower Suwannee
Valley and along the SE GA coastline. The lower Suwannee Valley is
quite saturated from recent heavy rainfall over the last 2 weeks
and there is ongoing river flooding. WPC has our area on the
periphery of a day 2 slight risk of excessive rainfall and much of
our area in a marginal risk. Outside of the heavy rainfall, there
will also be lightning and the potential for some gusty winds.

Deep layer ridging will begin to slide southwestward on Wednesday,
bringing back a more diurnal seabreeze forcing to the forefront.
Plentiful moisture should still be on tap for scattered to
numerous afternoon showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday
afternoon and evening.

.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Monday]...

Deep layer ridging over the area will remain the dominant feature
through the end of the week. Diurnal seabreeze patterns will drive
the daily convection, but drier air will work its way into the
region with subsidence from the ridge, so chances for storms will
lower through the end of the week. As we begin next week, a
surface trough or weak frontal boundary may drag southeastward
into southern Georgia and bring another surge in moisture and
increase in showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will trend
near to slightly above normal for late August.

.MARINE...

Winds and seas have come up since yesterday, with SAUF1 near 15
kt and seas are about 3.5 ft at the nearshore buoys. Given latest
guidance, feel confident winds will flirt with caution level
criteria for winds and seas through tonight as Tropical Cyclone
Fred makes it's closest approach to the marine waters. Numerous
shower and some thunderstorms will be present at times through
Tuesday causing higher winds and seas at times. Winds will turn
back to the south on Tuesday and diminish in the wake of Fred.
Ridging will build into the area Wed-Fri with lighter winds and
lower seas.

Rip Currents:
Moderate to high risk for the area waters as winds and seas
increase. Thus, hoisted high risk of rip currents today. The risk
will remain elevated at moderate and possibly high again on
Tuesday though winds will be more side- shore /south-southeast
during the day and waves will be more at an angle to the shore.

.FIRE WEATHER...

Tropical Storm Fred will lift slowly northward towards the FL
Panhandle today and then shift towards southern Appalachian
Mountains on Tuesday. This will bring numerous to widespread
showers and thunderstorms to the area through Tuesday. Enough
moisture should still be in place on Wednesday to produce
scattered to numerous storms, but some slightly drier air is
forecast to filter into the area later in the week.

.HYDROLOGY...

Additional 1-2" of rainfall in the lower Suwannee Valley today
through Tuesday evening could cause localized flooding and prolong
river flooding along the Suwannee and Santa Fe Rivers. Minor to
moderate flooding continues along upper portions of the Suwannee
River, with levels cresting just below moderate flooding early
this week near the Suwannee Springs gauge. Minor flooding
continues along the lower portions of the Suwannee to the south of
the confluence with the Santa Fe River. Mostly minor flooding
continues along the Santa Fe River, except along the lower portion
of the river near the Three Rivers Estates gauge, where moderate
flooding will continue for much of this week. Minor flooding along
portions of the Santa Fe and the lower Satilla Rivers should
recede below flood stage later this week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  74  89  74  91  73 /  50  80  30  70  30
SSI  78  88  79  90  78 /  50  60  40  50  20
JAX  76  92  76  92  76 /  50  70  30  50  20
SGJ  77  90  76  91  76 /  40  60  30  40  10
GNV  74  91  75  91  74 /  50  70  20  60  20
OCF  74  91  75  93  74 /  50  70  20  60  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Duval-
     Coastal Flagler-Coastal Nassau-Coastal St. Johns.

GA...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Camden-
     Coastal Glynn.

AM...None.
&&

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