Special Weather Statement, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
249 PM EDT Wed Jul 28 2021

.Near Term.../through Thursday/...

The region will be between high pressure to the southeast and weak
troughing to the northwest through Thursday. A weak area of low
pressure is expected to be to the northeast this evening, and
continue through Thursday. This low will affect the flow enough to
influence sea breeze interactions.

Convective coverage will be greatest over inland NE FL this
afternoon due to the Gulf coast sea breeze pushing in. Activity will
diminish this evening with loss of diurnal heating. For Thursday
afternoon, best sea breeze convergence will occur over NE FL, so
have focused highest precipitation chances there.

Temperatures will trend a little above normal Tonight. For Thursday,
highs will be near to a little below normal over NE FL due to
expected convective coverage, but a little above normal over SE GA
where not as much activity is expected.

&&

.Short Term.../Thursday night through Sunday/...

The region will be between high pressure to the southeast and a
frontal zone to the northwest this period. This will provide for a
mainly southwest flow, with the Gulf sea breeze most active as it
pushes inland through the day. The east coast sea breeze will
struggle to get much past I95 during the afternoons this period due
to the southwest flow. With this pattern will focus greatest
convective chances inland on the Gulf sea breeze.

Temperatures will trend above normal this period, with the
combination of heat and humidity likely pushing heat index values
into Advisory range for good portions of the area each afternoon
this period. Far inland NE FL should have lowest heat index values
due to the Gulf sea breeze, and increased potential for convection.

&&

.Long Term.../Sunday night through Wednesday/...

The pattern with the frontal zone just to the northwest and high
pressure to the southeast will continue through Monday. The frontal
zone will move further to the northwest Tuesday into Wednesday, with
high pressure building more toward the east. Moisture is expected to
increase across the region this period, with the Gulf sea breeze
being most active, as east coast sea breeze largely remains pinned
near the coast due to southwest flow. Above normal chances for
convection this period, mainly in the afternoon and evening hours.

Temperatures will trend near normal at night. Highs will trend from
near normal Monday to a little below normal Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.Marine...

The region will be between high pressure to the southeast and a
frontal zone to the northwest through the upcoming weekend. A weak
surface low will be just northeast of area waters through Thursday.

Rip Currents: SE GA: Low risk Today, Moderate Thursday
              NE FL: Moderate risk through Thursday

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  73  94  74  98  77 /  30  20   0  10   0
SSI  77  89  77  93  80 /  40  10   0  10   0
JAX  74  92  75  97  77 /  50  20  10  10   0
SGJ  74  89  75  93  77 /  50  30  10  10   0
GNV  74  90  75  93  76 /  50  60  20  30   0
OCF  73  90  75  93  76 /  50  60  20  30   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
330 PM EDT Wed Jul 28 2021

FLZ033-133-282000-
Coastal St. Johns FL-Inland St. Johns FL-
330 PM EDT Wed Jul 28 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL ST. JOHNS COUNTY UNTIL
400 PM EDT...

* At 330 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm near Saint Augustine South, or 7
  miles west of Saint Augustine, moving north at 10 mph.

* Winds in excess of 45 mph and minor flooding due to heavy rainfall
  is possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Bakersville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. If
you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck! Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Jacksonville on
Facebook and Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 2976 8134 2981 8151 2995 8153 2997 8133
TIME...MOT...LOC 1930Z 188DEG 11KT 2986 8142

NELSON

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
342 PM EDT Wed Jul 28 2021

FLZ140-240-340-282015-
Central Marion FL-Western Marion FL-Eastern Marion FL-
342 PM EDT Wed Jul 28 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL MARION COUNTY UNTIL 415
PM EDT...

* At 342 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm near Anthony, or near Lynne, moving
  east at 10 mph.

* Winds in excess of 45 mph, excessive cloud-to-ground lightning, and
  minor flooding due to heavy rainfall is possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Ocala, Fort McCoy, Citra, Lynne, Sparr, Anthony, Reddick, Lowell
  and Burbank.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Jacksonville on
Facebook and Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 2918 8221 2936 8220 2943 8210 2943 8209
      2944 8208 2943 8207 2944 8207 2944 8206
      2946 8206 2949 8202 2918 8184
TIME...MOT...LOC 1942Z 260DEG 9KT 2923 8202

NELSON

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
411 PM EDT Wed Jul 28 2021

FLZ132-137-232-282045-
Eastern Clay FL-Western Clay FL-Eastern Putnam FL-
411 PM EDT Wed Jul 28 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL PUTNAM AND EAST
CENTRAL CLAY COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM EDT...

* At 411 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm near Green Cove Springs, moving
  northeast at 15 mph.

* Wind gusts up to 50 mph and excessive cloud-to-ground lightning
  possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Green Cove Springs and Penney Farms.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Jacksonville on
Facebook and Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 2982 8158 2983 8166 2984 8166 2984 8172
      2986 8191 3000 8186 2997 8161 2993 8160
      2992 8161 2987 8160 2985 8159
TIME...MOT...LOC 2011Z 211DEG 13KT 2991 8169

NELSON

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