Special Weather Statement, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
148 PM EDT Mon Jul 19 2021

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Tuesday]

Widespread showers and storms are expected to impact the TAF sites
over the next several hours with restrictions expected. Gusty and
erratic winds are expected in/around thunderstorms. Showers/storms
will wind down this evening. Showers may move in from the Gulf
overnight towards KGNV, but probabilities are low at this time.
Showers and storms will move in quickly from the Gulf once again
on Tuesday and be near the TAF sites by the end of the TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [1037 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Troughing aloft over the eastern U.S. will bifurcate as the
aforementioned potent shortwave entering New England progresses
eastward, leaving a cutoff trough over the Tennessee Valley and
the Ozarks by tonight. Flow aloft locally will back to a more
westerly direction today, and support for the frontal zone well to
the north of our region will weaken. The westerly flow will
continue to advect deep tropical moisture into our region, and the
departing weak shortwave to our north should allow for at least
filtered sunshine this morning across most of our region, allowing
temperatures to quickly climb through the 80s.

Showers and thunderstorms should be initiated towards noon by the
inland moving Gulf coast sea breeze over western portions of the
Suwannee Valley, and this activity should increase in coverage and
intensity as it progresses eastward this afternoon, reaching the
Atlantic coast by late afternoon. Our local pressure gradient
should remain weak enough for the Atlantic sea breeze to develop
early this afternoon, with this boundary likely remaining pinned
to the east of I-95 through the afternoon hours. Model soundings
indicate ML CAPE values rising to 1,500 - 2,000 j/kg by early
afternoon as temperatures approach 90 degrees all the way to
coastal locations. Mesoscale boundary collisions and the tropical
air mass in place should result in widespread thunderstorm
coverage as activity approaches the U.S. Highway 301 corridor by
mid-afternoon, and a few storms may pulse and become strong as
convection intersects the pinned Atlantic sea breeze boundary
during the mid to late afternoon hours for locations along and
east of I-95. Pulsing storms will be capable of producing
downburst winds of 40-55 mph, frequent lightning strikes and
briefly torrential downpours late this afternoon.

Thunderstorms should mostly move offshore by the early afternoon
hours, but weak shortwave energy migrating across the southeastern
states may touch off a round of at least widely scattered
convection early this evening, mainly for inland portions of
southeast GA and northern portions of the Suwannee Valley. Expect
debris cloudiness to linger overnight due to evening convective
development over southeast GA and the presence of the cutoff
trough to our northwest. Lows tonight will generally fall to the
low and mid 70s area-wide.

.SHORT TERM [Tuesday Through Wednesday]...

Southwesterly flow will continue through into midweek, with
moisture levels gradually decreasing over the region as high
pressure ridging to the south expands it's influence northward due
to the weakening of the troughing over the eastern US. Mostly
diurnal showers and thunderstorms are expected to be more
prevalent on Tuesday as PWAT values drop from about 2 inches down
to 1.75 inches on Wednesday over much of the area, with a
potential for excessive rainfall near coastal southeast Georgia on
Tuesday during the afternoon and evening hours where PWAT values
are currently expected to be in excess of 2.25 inches. Daytime
high temperatures will be in the upper 80s and lower 90s on
Tuesday and Wednesday with cooler temps occurring over areas with
dense cloud cover and heavier rains. Overnight low temperatures
will be in the lower 70s during this period.

.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Monday]...

The more typical summertime pattern of diurnal showers and storms
will return for the end of the week, with a potential for
increased convection over the weekend as the effects of a
possible broadening trough off to the north influences the
placement of high pressure ridging over northeastern Florida and
southeastern Georgia, resulting in an overall decrease in
stability. Temperatures during this period are expected to be
slightly above the climatological average for the end of the week
and for the weekend.

.MARINE...

The axis of Atlantic high pressure will remain positioned to the
south of our local waters this week as a frontal boundary stalls
over the southeastern states and weakens towards midweek, leaving
a weak trough positioned near the Georgia waters. A few strong
thunderstorms containing strong wind gusts and frequent lightning
strikes will move eastward over the near shore waters during the
mid to late afternoon hours today and again on Tuesday.
Southwesterly winds will prevail, but will be weak enough for the
sea breeze to develop over the near shore waters by the mid to
late afternoon hours through midweek. Coverage of showers and
thunderstorms will likely decrease on Wednesday and Thursday,
followed by increasing coverage towards Friday afternoon. Seas of
2-4 feet will prevail throughout the near shore and offshore
waters during the next several days.

Rip Currents: Prevailing offshore winds and low wave heights will
result in a low risk at area beaches throughout the work week.

.HYDROLOGY...

Rivers continue to recede across our region, with mostly minor
flooding ongoing along the lower Santa Fe and portions of the St.
Marys Rivers. River levels have mostly fallen just below flood
stage along the lower Satilla River. Minor flooding will continue
this week along most of the lower Santa Fe River.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  72  88  71  91  72 /  60  80  20  60  10
SSI  76  89  77  91  78 /  40  70  20  40  10
JAX  73  91  74  93  74 /  30  70  10  50  10
SGJ  74  90  74  90  75 /  40  60  20  40  10
GNV  72  89  72  91  73 /  20  70  10  60   0
OCF  73  90  73  91  74 /  20  60  10  60   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>