Special Weather Statement, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
330 PM EDT Thu Jul 15 2021

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Western Atlantic High pressure ridge axis continues to extend
westward across South Georgia. A pocket of drier air aloft in the
easterly steering flow is shifting from the Atlantic into coastal
NE FL and north-central FL. This has been limiting shower
development along the Atlantic coast sea breeze as it pushes
inland today. Best moisture (PWATs around 1.8"-1.9") remains over
Suwannee Valley and far inland southeast Georgia where isolated
showers and storms will be possible this afternoon into evening.
Any convection that develops should fade around sunset with fair
skies and lows in the 70s overnight, with limited patchy fog
potential towards sunrise Friday morning.

.SHORT TERM [Friday Through Saturday Night]...

High pressure ridge extending into the area will continue light
east-southeasterly flow. Drier air pivots through the ridge and
spreads across the area from the south. This will lower PWATs to
around 1.3"-1.6" for most areas on Friday and Saturday. The
combination of limited moisture and subsidence will suppress
convection especially on Friday. Best chance for isolated showers
and storms will be across inland southeast Georgia where
relatively higher moisture remains. Temperatures around normal
with widespread highs in the low 90s inland and upper 80s along
the coast. Could have pockets of mid 90s. Lows will be in the 70s.

.LONG TERM [Sunday Through Wednesday]...

High pressure ridge extending over the area begins to shift south
and break down by early next week as an upper trough and weak
cool front move into the Southeast CONUS. The front will stall
just to our north by mid-week. This will cause the flow to shift
to southerly then southwesterly bringing a return of moisture and
increasing storm coverage for next week. Temperatures begin around
normal and decrease to just below normal by mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Friday]

Another quiet day of convection along the East Coast sea breeze as
it presses inland, with only one shower so far through 1pm this
afternoon, this certainly only supports VCSH at VQQ until 19Z, and
VCSH at GNV until 20Z. Otherwise quiet easterly flow conditions
continue tonight with fog chances possible at GNV/VQQ around
sunrise Friday morning, but chances remain too low to include
now.

&&

.MARINE...

High pressure ridging will extend across the region from the
northeast through Saturday keeping seas about 2-3 feet with a
continued easterly swell in the 8 to 10 second range. Then, the
ridge axis shifts southward Sunday into early next week as a
frontal boundary sinks slowly southward over the southeastern
states. Winds will then shift to southerly then to southwesterly
with showers and thunderstorms increasing over the waters for
Sunday into next week.

Rip Currents: Low-end moderate rip current risk remains in effect
for our NE FL and SE GA beaches through Saturday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Rivers continue to trend downward with some points along the
Santa Fe and St. Marys rivers reaching action stage next week.
The Satilla River at Atkinson appears to be cresting right at
minor flood stage and will linger in minor flood into early next
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  72  92  71  92  71 /  10  30  20  30  10
SSI  76  88  76  89  77 /  10  10   0  10   0
JAX  72  92  73  91  73 /  10  10  10  10   0
SGJ  74  88  74  88  74 /  10  10  10  10   0
GNV  71  93  72  92  72 /  10  10  10  30  10
OCF  71  93  72  91  73 /  10  10  10  40  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
542 PM EDT Thu Jul 15 2021

GAZ132-133-135-149-152230-
Atkinson GA-Appling GA-Coffee GA-Jeff Davis GA-
542 PM EDT Thu Jul 15 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR COFFEE...WESTERN ATKINSON...JEFF
DAVIS AND NORTHWESTERN APPLING COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM EDT...

* At 541 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking strong thunderstorms along a line extending from near
  Plant Hatch to near Broxton. These storms were nearly stationary.

* Winds in excess of 45 mph and minor flooding due to heavy rainfall
  is possible with these storms.

* Locations impacted include...
  Douglas, Hazlehurst, Willacoochee, Broxton, Ambrose, Graham, Plant
  Hatch, Pridgen, West Green and Snipesville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Jacksonville on
Facebook and Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 3193 8226 3193 8225 3170 8248 3171 8252
      3167 8252 3167 8263 3156 8262 3118 8299
      3118 8305 3128 8303 3140 8314 3146 8315
      3151 8308 3166 8300 3178 8300 3178 8287
      3192 8268 3196 8256 3195 8249 3197 8247
TIME...MOT...LOC 2141Z 262DEG 3KT 3191 8242 3163 8294

ENYEDI