Special Weather Statement, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
131 PM EDT Tue Jun 29 2021

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Wednesday]

Storms are expected at KGNV over the next hour or so, with storms
in the vicinity the rest of the afternoon. A few showers are
possible near the east coast TAF sites through the period.
Easterly winds 10-15 knots will prevail this afternoon, with winds
diminishing overnight. East or east southeast winds around 10
knots are expected again by Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [951 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Much drier airmass in the wake of TD Danny has settled over most
of SE GA/NE FL early this morning, but the High pressure ridge
will set up north of the region and will slowly increase the
Southeasterly steering flow, which will once again increase
moisture levels across the area, firstly across NE FL today, with
Precipitable Water Amounts (PWATs) closing in on 2 inches over
inland NE FL, where numerous showers/storms are expected along the
I-75 corridor of inland NE FL by the afternoon hours, while
scattered showers/storms are expected for the remainder of NE FL
as the East Coast sea breeze front pushes slowly inland. The
lingering drier airmass across SE GA, where convection will more
more widely scattered in nature this afternoon/evening. The lower
coverage across inland SE GA will allow for Max Temps to reach
into the lower 90s there, while most of inland NE FL will top out
in the upper 80s/near 90, and Atlc coastal areas/I-95 corridor
will top out in the middle/upper 80s. Storm motion will be towards
the North-Northwest around 10-15 mph and the main impacts will
continue to be locally heavy rainfall and minor flooding issues
due to saturated soils, although the typical isolated strong
storms with wind gusts to 40-50 mph can be expected by the mid-
late afternoon hours over inland areas. The atmosphere continue to
moisten overnight with onshore flow and low level convergence over
the Atlc Coastal waters triggering more scattered showers and
storms during the late night hours that will press towards the
coast and expect more convection for the Atlantic Coastal counties
and I-95 corridor for the early Wednesday morning hours. Typical
overnight lows in the lower 70s inland and mid/upper 70s for the
Atlc Coast.

.SHORT TERM [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...

Ridge at the surface and aloft will be north of the area on
Wednesday and over the area on Thursday as an upper trough over
the Great Lakes begins to dig south. The steering flow will be
from the southeast on Wednesday which will result in the best
coverage of diurnal storms over inland areas as the east coast
seabreeze moves well inland. The flow will become more southerly
on Thursday which will slow the inland motion of the seabreeze
producing better rain chances for coastal counties. PWATs will be
at or above average which will help the potential for locally
heavy rainfall in afternoon/evening storms. Temperatures will be
close to average levels.

.LONG TERM [Friday Through Monday]...

An upper low/trough over the Great lakes will amplify over the
eastern U.S. through the weekend. Meanwhile a cold front will
drift se and stall just north of the area which will result in an
increase of moisture across the area with PWATs exceeding 2 inches
over especially se Ga. Vertical wind shear will increase as the
sw flow becomes stronger at the low and mid levels. Numerous
showers and thunderstorms are expected each day with the chance of
locally heavy rainfall and a few strong storms possible this
weekend. Daytime temperatures will be at or slightly below
average.

.MARINE...

High pressure ridge has re-established north of the waters and
East to Southeast flow in the 10-15 knot range will continue
through Thursday with seas 3-5 ft, then as ridge axis slowly
pushes south across the waters on Friday, winds become south
around 10 knots with seas 2-4 ft, then over the weekend the ridge
axis will settle south of the waters and Southwest flow develops
in the 10-15 knot range with seas continuing in the 2-4 ft range.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk of rip currents continues in the
onshore flow Today and Wednesday with surf/breakers in the 2 to 4
feet range.

.HYDROLOGY...

Minor River flooding continues on the Santa Fe Basin this week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  72  89  71  90  71 /  10  60  10  60  10
SSI  76  85  76  85  75 /  20  30  20  30  10
JAX  73  87  72  88  72 /  20  20  20  40  10
SGJ  75  87  74  86  73 /  30  30  20  40  10
GNV  72  88  71  87  72 /  20  70  30  70  20
OCF  72  88  71  88  72 /  40  70  30  70  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
112 PM EDT Tue Jun 29 2021

FLZ136-236-291800-
Eastern Alachua FL-Western Alachua FL-
112 PM EDT Tue Jun 29 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN ALACHUA COUNTY UNTIL
200 PM EDT...

* At 112 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm near University Of Florida, or near
  Gainesville, moving northwest at 15 mph.

* Winds in excess of 45 mph and minor flooding due to heavy rainfall
  is possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Alachua, High Springs and Newberry.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Jacksonville on
Facebook and Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 2973 8266 2987 8253 2964 8236 2961 8232
      2954 8235 2956 8241 2961 8266
TIME...MOT...LOC 1712Z 121DEG 14KT 2961 8240

AK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
112 PM EDT Tue Jun 29 2021

FLZ240-340-291800-
Central Marion FL-Western Marion FL-
112 PM EDT Tue Jun 29 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN MARION COUNTY UNTIL
200 PM EDT...

* At 110 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm 9 miles southwest of Santos, or 11
  miles northwest of Wildwood, moving northwest at 15 mph.

* Winds in excess of 45 mph and minor flooding due to heavy rainfall
  is possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Rainbow Lakes Estates, Dunnellon and Romeo.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Jacksonville on
Facebook and Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 2897 8232 2902 8240 2902 8242 2905 8247
      2904 8250 2904 8254 2921 8254 2922 8240
      2925 8240 2896 8201 2896 8231
TIME...MOT...LOC 1710Z 121DEG 14KT 2898 8217

AK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
133 PM EDT Tue Jun 29 2021

FLZ136-291800-
Eastern Alachua FL-
133 PM EDT Tue Jun 29 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL ALACHUA COUNTY UNTIL 200
PM EDT...

* At 133 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm over Gainesville Airport, or near
  Gainesville, moving northwest at 15 mph.

* Winds in excess of 45 mph and minor flooding due to heavy rainfall
  is possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Gainesville, Alachua, Gainesville Airport, Newnans Lake and La
  Crosse.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Jacksonville on
Facebook and Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 2969 8239 2980 8248 2989 8240 2988 8239
      2988 8236 2974 8215 2963 8226
TIME...MOT...LOC 1733Z 121DEG 14KT 2971 8228

AK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
153 PM EDT Tue Jun 29 2021

FLZ136-236-291830-
Eastern Alachua FL-Western Alachua FL-
153 PM EDT Tue Jun 29 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN ALACHUA COUNTY UNTIL
230 PM EDT...

* At 153 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm over Alachua, or 9 miles northwest
  of Gainesville, moving northwest at 15 mph.

* Winds in excess of 45 mph and minor flooding due to heavy rainfall
  is possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Alachua and High Springs.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Jacksonville on
Facebook and Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 2983 8266 2983 8264 2985 8263 2985 8262
      2986 8262 2985 8261 2987 8259 2989 8259
      2990 8258 2992 8258 2993 8256 2993 8253
      2975 8236 2968 8242 2974 8266
TIME...MOT...LOC 1753Z 125DEG 15KT 2975 8247

AK