Special Weather Statement, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
318 PM EDT Thu Jun 24 2021

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Widespread to scattered convection will continue to move through
the region this afternoon with showers and thunderstorms forming
primarily south of the frontal boundary situated near the
Florida-Georgia border, with the greatest risks associated with
storms being gusty winds, intense rainfall, and localized flooding.
Thunderstorms are expected to clear out overnight with potential
for isolated to scattered showers lingering late into the evening,
with stronger convection resuming again on Friday. Overnight low
temperatures will drop down into the mid to upper 60s for inland
areas, with the coolest temperatures occuring over inland
southeast Georgia, and in the lower 70s for north central Florida
and along the coastline.

.SHORT TERM [Friday Through Sunday Night]...

Ridge of high pressure over the Atlantic and along the eastern
coastline, off to the northeast of the region, will remain semi-
stationary for the start of the weekend before the ridge shifts to
more of a east-west orientation on Sunday. The placement of the
ridge will result in a largely easterly-southeasterly onshore flow
through weekend. Convection during this period will be largely
diurnal with numerous showers and embedded storms likely
developing along with the early afternoon sea breeze and
progressing inland as the day progresses. Energy aloft will move
across the southeastern US during this period, potentially serving
to enhance the development of thunderstorms. Temperatures will be
near normal levels this weekend, with daily high temperatures
being slightly below the seasonal average due to cloud cover and
precipitation.

.LONG TERM [Monday Through Thursday]...

High pressure will remain off to the northeast next week with
easterly flow on Monday, before shifting about to become more
southerly by midweek. Convective conditions during this period
will remain largely similar as before with widespread diurnal
build ups associated with the advancing sea breeze, trekking
westward throughout the afternoon with summertime showers and
embedded thunderstorms. The pattern will be slightly modified on
Wednesday due to the more southerly flow, resulting in a more
slowly advancing sea breeze by midweek. Temperatures during this
period are expected to rise into the lower 90s and upper 80s, with
the slightly lower temps occuring within areas of increased cloud
cover and rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Friday]

Daytime heating along with outflow boundaries and stalled front
continue to support numerous showers and storms near and just
south of the FL/GA state line. This activity will slowly sag
southward and a bit further inland per latest guidance. As such,
lowering chance of convection for KSSI and to some degree for KCRG
and KSGJ. Best chances of convection rest of the afternoon will
be for KGNV and KVQQ. At a minimum, MVFR and gusty winds expected
in this convection. East to northeast sfc winds at KSSI, KJAX,
and KCRG near 12-16kt and gusty rest of the afternoon with rest of
TAFs a bit lower in speeds. Winds will then diminish once again
in the evening away from the coast. Some low stratus is possible
later tonight but low confidence. Chance of showers and storms for
Friday by mid morning to early aftn so for now mainly VCSH or
PROB30 was indicated.

&&

.MARINE...

A frontal boundary will linger around the FL/GA border through the
end of the week, then dissipate this weekend. Winds will shift to
the east northeast today as high pressure builds to the northeast.
Easterly winds will continue into next week as high pressure
wedges down the east coast. Daily chances of showers and
thunderstorms will continue as well.

Rip Currents: Moderate Risk through the end of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  66  87  69  89  70 /  10  50  20  50   0
SSI  74  85  76  87  77 /  20  40  30  40  10
JAX  72  86  73  87  73 /  30  50  40  40  10
SGJ  73  84  73  86  75 /  50  40  30  40  10
GNV  69  86  70  87  71 /  40  60  30  60  10
OCF  71  87  72  89  72 /  40  60  20  60  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

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