Special Weather Statement, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
330 PM EDT Tue May 11 2021

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

A qausi-stationary frontal boundary is stalled just north of our
area, with short wave troughs rolling across what is otherwise
mostly zonal flow aloft. Winds are predominantly out of the west
with areas east of the St Johns river experiencing a wind shift to
out of the east this afternoon. This westerly flow has allowed
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop across
NE FL with the Gulf Coast seabreeze. These west winds are also
keeping the East Coast seabreeze pinned near the coast line. Later
this evening, we may also see storms moving with or developing
along outflow boundaries from storms in S-central GA closer to the
frontal boundary. Strong storms are possible this afternoon and
evening, with the primary threats being strong winds and small
hail. High temperatures for today will be in the upper 80s and
lower 90s for inland areas and in the mid to lower 80s along the
coastline. Lows tonight will be in the mid-upper 60s, around 70
along the coastline.

.SHORT TERM [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...

The front to our north will sink south to near the FL-GA line on
Wednesday evening, and south of our area overnight Wednesday
night. For most of the day, we'll be ahead of the front, staying
warm with temperatures in the 80s and low 90s and with afternoon
ML CAPE values peaking around 500-1000 J/kg, and bulk shear
peaking out around 35 knots. We'll unstable enough to produce a
few strong to severe thunderstorms, the main threats being
damaging wind gusts and small hail.

A much cooler airmass will move into the region behind Wednesday
night's front, but an upper level trough will dig into the
southeast, helping develop an inverted coastal trough off to our
east. Strong northeasterly flow through Thursday night with this
coastal trough setup will keep rounds of scattered showers in the
forecast through Thursday night. Temperatures will be
significantly cooler, with highs in the low-mid 60s in SE GA and
highs in the 70s across NE FL. Overnight lows will range from the
low-mid 50s in SE GA to upper 50s-low 60s in NE FL Thursday night.

.LONG TERM [Friday Through Tuesday]...

The upper level trough will push off the mid-Atlantic coastline
Friday, shifting that inverted trough away from our coastline.
As a result, northeasterly winds will gradually lower in speed as
we move into the weekend. Low level ridging will build in over the
eastern CONUS over the weekend, bringing us a nice weekend. The
ridge will roll off the east coast early next week, bringing a
return of southeasterly flow and likely some seabreeze
thunderstorms. Temperatures will progressively warm from the 70s
Friday back to the 80s for the weekend, with upper 80s to low 90s
returning next week. Likewise lows will warm from the 50s Friday
night back into the 60s over the weekend and hover there through
most of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Wednesday]

A cold front to the north of the waters will slowly sink south
towards the waters through Wednesday. The front will move into the
Georgia waters during the early evening hours on Wednesday...and
across the northeast Florida waters Wednesday night. Winds will
shift to the northeast and increase along with building seas
behind the front. Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected
Wednesday night through Friday.

&&

.MARINE...

A cold front to the north of the waters will slowly sink south
towards the waters through Wednesday night, moving past the
Georgia waters Wednesday evening...and across the northeast
Florida waters Wednesday night. Winds will shift to the northeast
and increase along with building seas behind the front. Small
Craft Advisory conditions are expected Wednesday night through
Friday.

Rip Currents: Low risk today, moderate risk on Wednesday at all
area beaches.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  67  80  54  64  53 /  50  70  50  50  20
SSI  70  81  59  69  60 /  40  70  50  50  20
JAX  69  88  62  70  59 /  50  70  40  40  20
SGJ  70  87  67  74  63 /  20  50  40  40  20
GNV  68  90  65  75  59 /  20  40  30  50  10
OCF  68  92  68  80  61 /  10  30  20  40  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

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