Special Weather Statement, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
323 PM EDT Sun May 2 2021

.Short Term.../through Monday night/...

High pressure to the east Today, will slide to the southeast Tonight
through Monday night. A 500mb ridge located just to the east Today,
will move further to the east this period, yielding a flattening
southwest to northeast pattern at that level. This will allow upper
disturbances to move northeast across region.

Convection will continue to develop this afternoon due to diurnal
instability. Convergence will increase across central counties as
the gulf sea breeze interacts with east coast sea breeze. Thus
expect scattered to numerous showers and storms across central part
of region. This area will then move toward the northeast as it
weakens this evening.

The low level flow will become more from the south Tonight, then
from the southwest Monday into Monday night. Above normal
temperatures expected this period. Highs Monday in the lower 90s
will be common. With the southwest flow the east coast sea breeze
will have hard time pushing inland, so highs near 90 will be
expected at beach communities as well.

Due to moist flow across the gulf Tonight and again Monday night,
expect patchy to areas of fog to develop inland during the
overnights which may become locally dense.

&&

.Long Term.../Tuesday through Sunday/...

Surface high pressure will be located to the southeast of the region
Tuesday, with a flattening upper pattern. This pattern will yield a
warm and moist south to southwest flow. Highs will be well above
normal with maxes in the lower 90s common. The sea breeze will have
a hard time getting much past the beaches with the southwest
flow, so highs near 90 will be possible all the way to the beach
communities. With the flattening upper pattern more disturbances
will be able to move through, expecially across SE GA. Best chance
for convection Tuesday will be over interior SE GA, with a few
storms in north central FL due to diurnal heating surface
convergence. Chance for a few passing showers or storms inland SE
GA into Tuesday night, with temperatures still above normal.

Models diverge in timing of features in the Wednesday to Thursday
night timeframe. As the surface high moves further to the southeast
Wednesday, a cold front will move southeast toward forecast area,
with upper waves moving east northeast through the flow. As a result
Wednesday will be convective especially across SE GA. The ECMWF
slowly passes the front across region Wednesday night through the
day Thursday, whereas the GFS has an extra wave that passes through
Thursday slowing the progression of the frontal passage into
Thursday night. Regardless Wednesday into Thursday will be an
unsettled and stormy period. If the slower solution is correct the
storminess will extend into Thursday night, with higher rainfall
amounts likely. The potential will exist for strong to severe storms
throughout this Wednesday through Thursday night period. As this
period gets closer should be able to better time out when stronger
waves will pass through. Temperatures will be above normal
Wednesday, but closer to normal for Thursday.

High pressure will build from the northwest Friday, then overhead
Saturday morning and northeast Saturday afternoon. Drier air will
filter into region Friday into Saturday. While temperatures will
still be near seasonal levels it will feel noticeably drier due to
lower dewpoints.

As the surface high builds more toward the east Sunday, moisture
will slowly increase on south southeast flow. At this point, Sunday
looks to remain dry, with temperatures rising to above normal
levels. However, if dewpoints recover faster on Sunday, would not be
able to rule out a few diurnally enhanced showers/storms in sea
breeze convergence zone in the afternoon.

&&

.Marine...

High pressure will move from east of the region to the southeast on
Monday into Tuesday. A frontal system affect the area Wednesday into
Thursday with rounds of strong to severe storms possible. High
pressure will build from the northwest Friday, then overhead
Saturday morning, and northeast Saturday afternoon. The high will
build more toward the east on Sunday.

Rip Currents:  SE GA Moderate through Monday
               NE FL Moderate through Monday

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  67  89  69  91  70 /  30  20  10  30  10
SSI  71  84  71  86  72 /  30  10   0  10  10
JAX  68  92  69  92  71 /  30  10   0  10  10
SGJ  70  91  69  89  71 /  30  10   0  10  10
GNV  68  91  68  92  70 /  10  10   0  10  10
OCF  68  91  69  93  70 /  10  10   0  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
224 PM EDT SUN MAY 2 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0154 PM     RIP CURRENTS     1 NNE FLAGLER BEACH     29.48N 81.13W
05/02/2021                   Flagler            FL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTED THAT FLAGLER BEACH OCEAN
            RESCUE HAD AT LEAST 3 RESCUES OUT OF RIP CURRENTS IN THE
            PAST HOUR NEAR THE VICINITY OF FLAGLER BEACH PIER.

&&

RBRICKER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
334 PM EDT Sun May 2 2021

FLZ031-136-232-022015-
Eastern Alachua FL-Western Clay FL-Bradford FL-
334 PM EDT Sun May 2 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BRADFORD...NORTHEASTERN ALACHUA
AND NORTHWESTERN CLAY COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM EDT...

* At 334 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm near Sampson, or near Starke, moving
  northeast at 20 mph.

* Winds in excess of 45 mph and minor flooding due to heavy rainfall
  is possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Starke, Keystone Heights, Middleburg, Kingsley, Sampson, Camp
  Blanding, Waldo, Lawtey and Hampton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Jacksonville on
Facebook and Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 2974 8212 2980 8232 3004 8222 3007 8218
      3010 8217 3011 8215 3014 8214 3014 8203
      3010 8187
TIME...MOT...LOC 1934Z 206DEG 19KT 2987 8218

AK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
419 PM EDT Sun May 2 2021

FLZ132-232-425-022100-
Eastern Clay FL-Western Clay FL-Western Duval FL-
419 PM EDT Sun May 2 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN CLAY AND
SOUTHWESTERN DUVAL COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

* At 419 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm near Camp Blanding, or near
  Middleburg, moving northeast at 25 mph.

* Winds in excess of 45 mph and minor flooding due to heavy rainfall
  is possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Orange Park, Middleburg, Cecil Field, Maxville, Doctors Inlet,
  Lakeside, Kingsley, Oakleaf Plantation, Bellair-Meadowbrook Terrace
  and Camp Blanding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Jacksonville on
Facebook and Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 3017 8169 3015 8169 2991 8200 2995 8205
      3023 8205 3033 8198 3034 8197 3021 8174
      3019 8174 3019 8170 3018 8168
TIME...MOT...LOC 2019Z 217DEG 22KT 3006 8200

AK