Special Weather Statement, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
116 AM EDT Sun Apr 25 2021

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Discussion: Training supercells moved across southeast Georgia for
much of the day and night, producing a tornado, damaging winds,
hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter, and very heavy rainfall. The
severe weather extended southward along the I-10 corridor in
northeast Florida as well. Significant rainfall occurred over
portions of southeast Georgia, with radar estimates as high as
6-9 inches of rainfall. The best dynamics were shifting off the
east coast early this morning, which was slowly ending the severe
threat. An isolated severe storm cannot be ruled out along the
I-10 corridor and coastal southeast Georgia in the early morning
hours, with isolated strong storms possible before daybreak on
Sunday across the rest of northeast Florida. Gusty winds, hail
and locally heavy rainfall will be the main threats. Rain chances
will continue for northeast Florida through about noon, before the
trough axis kicks east and the cold front pushes through the
area.

A cold front was located to the west of the area early this
morning, and will begin to push into the area after 06Z. The
frontal boundary will then move across northeast Florida before
slowing down. The cold front will then clear the area by 18Z.
Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph with higher gusts will prevail behind
the front. Surface high pressure will then build into the area
from the north through Sunday night.

Highs today will be in the mid 70s to near 80 across southeast
Georgia, and near 80 to the mid 80s across northeast Florida, with
upper 80s possible across Marion County. Overnight lows will be in
the mid to upper 50s across the interior, and the low to mid 60s
at the coast.

.SHORT TERM [Monday Through Tuesday]...

The work week begins with an upper level ridge from the Gulf
northward to over the center of the country, an upper trough off
the eastern conus, and an upper trough pushing across the western
conus. As troughing digs southward across the Desert Southwest
Monday afternoon through Tuesday, upper level heights will rise
across the area. Surface high pressure to the north to northeast
of the area on Monday will settle south of the Carolinas on
Tuesday. Northeast winds on Monday will become east southeast on
Tuesday. Dry conditions will prevail. Onshore flow will keep
temperatures at the coast in the mid to upper 70s in the early
part of the week, with low to mid 80s inland. Overnight lows will
be in the mid 50s to near 60 Tuesday morning across the interior,
and the upper 50s to lower 60s Wednesday morning. At the beaches,
lows will be in the mid 60s.

.LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Sunday]...

An upper level trough over the Desert Southwest Wednesday morning
is forecast to begin moving eastward across New Mexico and then
into Texas on Thursday. Dry conditions will prevail Wednesday and
Thursday. Rainfall chances the end of the week and into next
weekend will depend on how fast the upper trough moves eastward,
and how fast the ridge breaks down over the area. Only low rain
chances are forecast for Friday and next Saturday, in the 20-30%
range. Highs will be in the 80s Wednesday through the end of the
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 06Z Monday]

Pre-frontal squall line of storms will continue to press southward
across the terminals through daybreak with restrictions due to
heavy rainfall. MVFR ceilings will prevail with periodic IFR at
GNV early this morning where low stratus will edge inland from the
Gulf just ahead of the cold front. Included wind shear around 2
kft until squall line passage early this morning. The cold front
will press south of SSI 9-11z and then NE FL terminals 12-14z
trailed by VFR conditions and drier WNW winds increasing to 10-13
kts with gusts near 20-25 kts at times into the afternoon. Winds
clock around to the NNE into the evening with decreasing speeds
and prevailing VFR conditions tonight with passing stratocumulus
nearing SGJ overnight due to onshore flow.

VFR conditions should prevail area-wide by 11Z, with surface
winds shifting to westerly and increasing to 10-15 knots and gusty
after 13Z.

&&

.MARINE...

A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the offshore waters
through this morning. A cold front will push south across the
waters this morning as high pressure builds northwest of the
region. High pressure builds north then northeast of the local
waters late Sunday through Tuesday, then the high builds east of
the waters mid-week as southerly winds increase in advance of the
next approaching frontal system.

Rip Currents: Moderate Risk of rip currents at the beaches through
Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  77  55  81  55  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
SSI  78  64  77  64  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
JAX  82  60  79  62  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
SGJ  81  64  77  65  78 /  20   0   0   0   0
GNV  85  58  83  58  84 /  10   0   0   0   0
OCF  87  59  86  60  86 /  40   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for Waters
     from Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60
     NM-Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20
     to 60 NM-Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from
     20 to 60 NM.

&&

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