Special Weather Statement, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
902 AM EDT Sun Apr 18 2021

.UPDATE...

Showers and thunderstorms are continuing to move through the
region in association with the moist westerly flow south of the
frontal boundary. Chances for severe thunderstorms persist for
north central Florida, with destructive winds, small hail, and
excessive rainfall being the primary risks associated with strong
storms.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [748 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Surface frontal boundary has slipped back southward into North
Central Florida and expect next wave of showers and embedded
storms to mainly impact Northeast Florida through Tonight with
lesser rainfall expected across Southeast Georgia. Locally heavy
rainfall will continue at times along with a few strong to
isolated severe storms with the main threat as hail in elevated
cores to the north of the surface boundary, but even some gusty
winds will still be able to mix down at times. Severe storm threat
mainly expected today and tonight along and south of a line from
Gainesville to St Augustine. Abundant cloud cover and rainfall
will hold Max Temps in the lower to middle 70s and Min Temps only
falling into the upper 50s and lower 60s.

.SHORT TERM [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...

Monday and Monday Night...Trailing shortwave/impulse pushes
frontal boundary all the way southward into Central Florida and
this will end rainfall chances across SE GA and limit showers and
storms across NE FL and push them mainly south of a line from
Gainesville to St Augustine through Monday Night and better chances
of partial sunshine should push Max Temps back into the mid to
upper 70s for most locations with Min Temps mostly in the 50s
Monday Night.

Tuesday and Tuesday Night...Models still in decent agreement that
next shortwave impulse aloft will trigger low pressure development
along the frontal boundary across the Eastern Gulf of Mexico which
will track across North Central Florida with a final round of
heavy rainfall which could be the most widespread and intense of
the multi-day event and an additional 2-4 inch rainfall totals
across NE FL could warrant the need for a Flood Watch depending on
rainfall totals Today and Monday. This rainfall event will hold
temps at below normal levels with highs only in the lower/middle
70s once again. Rainfall will begin to taper off Tuesday Night as
low pressure exits off the Atlc coast after midnight with lows in
the upper 50s/near 60 degrees.

.LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Saturday]...

Wednesday...Low pressure departs into the Atlantic and expect
clearing skies with warm temps into the lower 80s for most
locations ahead of secondary cold frontal passage that takes place
late in the day and ushers in much cooler airmass with lows
falling into the 40s inland and lower 50s along the Atlc coast
Wednesday Night.

Thursday...Cool northerly flow will lead to below normal temps
under Sunny skies with high only around 70 degrees in most
locations and another night with lows in the 40s over inland areas
for Thursday Night.

Friday...Increasing clouds ahead of next weather system with a
return to climo temps with highs in the mid/upper 70s, then enough
moisture returns with a few showers possible by late Friday Night.

Saturday...Long range models suggesting a shortwave in the zonal
flow aloft will push across the region with numerous to widespread
showers and embedded storms with locally heavy rainfall possible
once again with temps continuing at near normal levels.

.AVIATION...
[Through 12Z Monday]

Showers and potential thunderstorms moving across the region
throughout the forecast period from out of the SW-W bringing
variable levels of visibility and ceiling height in association
with convection. Predominantly MVFR to IFR conditions anticipated
for much of the area affected by foul weather.

.MARINE...

Light offshore flow with no headlines are expected through Monday
becoming onshore on Tuesday as low pressure tracks along frontal
boundary south of the waters with main impacts still the showers
and embedded storms with heavy rainfall at times. A secondary
frontal passage on Wednesday will bring a surge of northerly winds
around 20 knots Wednesday Night and early Thursday that may lead
to Small Craft Advisory conditions.

Rip Currents: Low end Moderate risk of rip currents will continue
this weekend with surf/breakers around 2 feet.

.FIRE WEATHER...

Low daytime dispersion values will continue due to light surface
and transport winds through Tuesday.

.HYDROLOGY...

So far the greatest impact of rainfall the past 24 hours has been
the 3-6 inch rainfall totals across Marion/Putnam/Flagler counties
with only minimal impacts due to antecedent drier conditions and
with rainfall to remain locally heavy today and tonight across NE
FL will hold off on Flood Watch issuance at this time. The best
chances of more significant widespread heavy rainfall will be on
Tuesday as low moves along frontal boundary and this may be when a
Flood Watch needs to be post for some locations of NE FL south of
the I-10 corridor due to the 3-6 inch storm total rainfall amounts
expected by Wednesday Morning. Minor River flooding may still be
possible along the upper Santa Fe Basin, but greatest flooding
impacts will continue to be the metro areas of NE FL including
Ocala, Gainesville, Jacksonville and St Augustine thru Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  74  56  78  54  76 /  50  20   0  10  40
SSI  74  61  75  61  72 /  70  40  10  10  60
JAX  73  61  79  58  74 /  80  60  30  20  60
SGJ  73  62  73  61  72 / 100  90  70  40  80
GNV  74  61  76  58  74 / 100  90  70  40  80
OCF  79  63  74  60  75 / 100 100 100  60  90

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

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