Special Weather Statement, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
303 PM EDT Sat Apr 10 2021

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

The squall line will continue to move across the area from west
to east and move offshore around 9 PM tonight. Showers behind the
main line will taper off by midnight. Storms have the potential to
be strong to severe. The main hazard will be damaging wind gusts,
but hail and isolated tornadoes will be possible. Dry air was
pulled north over our eastern counties ahead of the approaching
squall line, which could work to limit CAPE and the severity of
storms as it moves across the area. However, a weak sea breeze
front developed and moved over the coastal counties, which could
enhance convection when it converges with the squall line.

Low temperatures tonight are forecast to be in the low-to-mid 60s
across the area. We will see a brief dry period after midnight
tonight through around sunrise Sunday.

.SHORT TERM [Sunday Through Monday Night]...

Showers and thunderstorms will begin to impact the area around
sunrise on Sunday, then shift south and focus over NE FL
throughout the day as a cold front approaches from the northwest.
Modest shear and dewpoints in the 60s will produce the potential
for an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm with locally
damaging winds and hail possible. Rain bands and training storms
may also produce locally heavy rainfall and flooding, especially
over north central FL where there will be ample deep moisture. The
cold front will exit the area late Sunday night, and weak high
pressure will build over the area. High pressure will continue to
build on Monday and begin to slowly shift southeast, resulting in
a warm and dry day. High temperatures Sunday will be in the upper
70s to near 80, and high temperatures Monday will be in the low-
to-mid 80s inland and upper 70s at the coast. Overnight lows will
be in the middle 50s to lower 60s both nights.

.LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Saturday]...

Dry weather will continue on Tuesday with weakening high pressure
lingering over the the area. A slow moving cold front extending
from a low in the Great Lakes region and along the Appalachians
will move into central Georgia on Tuesday, approach our area on
Wednesday, and push south of the area on Thursday. This will lead
to unsettled weather and rain chances Wednesday through the end of
the week. High temperatures through the long term will be in 70s
and 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Sunday]

Continued VFR for a few more hours with gusty S-SW winds at 15G25
knots before weakening squall line reaches TAF sites in the 21-23Z
time frame with wind gusts up to 35 knots expected as MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
develop in storm activity along the squall line at all TAF sites.
Lingering -SHRA following the squall line in MVFR CIGS from 23-02Z
time frame before rainfall ends and leaves mostly MVFR CIGS at TAF
sites for most of the night before the next convective complex
enters the NE FL region from the Southwest and expect a mix of
developing rainfall and embedded storm activity in the 12-18z time
frame at all NE FL TAF sites, while should just be some light
rainfall at the SSI TAF site. Models generally showing the re-
development of lower MVFR CIGS/VSBYS, but some IFR conds are
possible at GNV/SSI during this time frame.

&&

.MARINE...

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect through late tonight for
winds around 20 knots. Seas will be 5-7 feet offshore through
tomorrow. Gusty winds will persist this evening ahead of a squall
line that will cross the waters tonight. Showers and thunderstorms
will return on Sunday and a cold front will cross the waters
Sunday night. Winds will shift to northwesterly behind the front,
then weaken and become variable as high pressure builds over the
waters Monday and Tuesday. Another slow moving cold front will
cross the waters on Thursday.

Rip Currents: High Risk at all area beaches today, decreasing to
Moderate Sunday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A squall line will move across the area from west to east this evening,
bringing isolated strong to severe thunderstorms and gusty winds. We
will have a brief dry period overnight tonight, then showers and
thunderstorms will resume around sunrise Sunday ahead of an approaching
cold front. The front will exit the area Sunday night. Showers and
storms on Sunday could produce locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds
mainly in NE FL. Weak high pressure will build behind the front on
Monday and Tuesday. Min relative humidity will be low Monday in the
20-30% range.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  60  79  54  84  54 /  10  30   0   0   0
SSI  63  78  60  80  61 /  30  30  10   0   0
JAX  62  81  60  83  58 /  40  60  10   0   0
SGJ  64  78  62  79  60 /  60  70  10   0   0
GNV  62  78  59  85  55 /  90  90  10   0   0
OCF  63  78  61  86  56 /  80  90  20   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for Coastal
     Duval-Coastal Flagler-Coastal Nassau-Coastal St. Johns.

GA...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for Coastal
     Camden-Coastal Glynn.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for Waters from
     Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to
     60 NM-Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20
     to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for Coastal
     waters from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL
     out 20 NM-Coastal waters from St. Augustine to Flagler
     Beach FL out 20 NM.

&&

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