Special Weather Statement, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1213 AM EST Sun Feb 7 2021

.AVIATION...
[Through 06Z Monday]

Widespread LIFR and IFR CIGS ahead of approaching cold front
through 12z this morning with predominant TSRA at GNV/SGJ and at
least VCTS at JAX/VQQ/CRG/SSI through 09z. Also have added Wind
Shear since sfc winds are VRB06KT with a Southwest Low Level Jet
close to 35-40 knots at 2000 ft. Shower activity ends in the
10-13z time frame at all TAF sites but low IFR CIGS still
expected with the cold frontal passage as low level winds shift to
the W-NW at 10 knots and LLWS ends. CIGS slowly lift to MVFR
around 1200-1500 ft around 15z or so but still remain OVC at all
TAF sites until the afternoon hours when BKN CIGS develop by 18z
then become SCT025 by the 19-21z time frame with VFR conds
developing at all TAF sites after 21z as the low clouds finally
break up.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [957 PM EST]...

.Near Term.../through Sunday/...

Warm frontal boundary which has sat just south of the region through
much of the day, will lift north across NE FL late this afternoon,
and into SE GA this evening as a surface low pressure wave moves
along it, then off the GA coast Tonight. The associated cold front
behind the low will move southeast to near the FL/GA line by 12z
Sunday, then to the southeast of forecast area by noon. High
pressure will then build from the northwest through the remainder of
Sunday.

Light to moderate rain anticipated north of the frontal zone, in
response to short wave energy. While, a thunderstorm can not be
ruled out in this northern area, the chance will be low as current
area of convection moves into more stable airmass. Best potential
for stronger convection arrives late this afternoon, once areas
south of the warm front destabilizes. For this afternoon, that area
will largely be south of GNV. For this evening, into the early part
of the overnight, the potential coverage for stronger storms will
extend across much of NE FL, as warmer and more unstable air moves
north into area following the warm front. South of the front severe
potential would focus on wind and hail, however, an isolated tornado
could not be ruled out especially in vicinity of the front itself.

Once showers end across the southeastern counties early Sunday, a
clearing trend will occur.

Temperatures will not follow a typical diurnal curve Tonight, due to
the warm front. For areas across NE FL, temperatures may be fairly
steady to rising through the night, whereas SE GA could see low
temperatures around midnight then rising. Cold advection will begin
Sunday on northwest flow, with a wide range in highs expected. Highs
will range from around 60 over inland SE GA, to the lower 70s
south of a line from Gainesville to St Augustine.

.Short Term.../Sunday night through Wednesday/...

High pressure will build to the north Sunday night. This will keep
skies mostly clear. With the position of the high the flow will
become more from the northeast through the night. With water
temperatures running in the 50s, the northeast flow will keep
readings near the coast, much warmer than inland. Upper 30s for lows
expected over inland SE GA, while lower 50s will be common for
coastal NE FL.

The high will build more toward the northeast Monday, with onshore
flow prevailing. Increasing moisture will result in additional cloud
cover, but a dry day is anticipated. Once again due to water temps
in the 50s a variation in temperatures expected for highs across
area. Highs will range from the mid to upper 60s SE GA, to the
upper 60s to lower 70s NE FL, but readings along the coast will run
about 3 to 5 degrees cooler as the flow moves over the relatively
cooler waters.

A west to east oriented frontal boundary will lift north into area
Monday night into Tuesday. This boundary will slowly move north
across area through Wednesday. The boundary will be a focus for
showers Monday night through Wednesday, with periodic waves moving
along the boundary producing stronger activity and potential for
thunderstorms. Confidence is high that temperatures will trend above
normal Monday night through Wednesday. However, the position of the
frontal boundary will largely dictate how far north the warmest air
gets, with pockets of heavier showers being a cooling factor. With
the boundary wavering north and south somewhat as it moves through,
and expected precipitation coverage along it, a degree of uncertainty
will exist in forecast temperatures.

.Long Term.../Wednesday night through Saturday/...

A frontal boundary will stretch east across the area Wednesday night
through Thursday, then it will push just to the north Thursday
night. High pressure will build to the east Friday, helping to push
warm and moist air into region. A cold front will move southeast
across region Saturday.

In general it will be an unsettled pattern through out this period,
with chances for thunderstorms. Temperatures will be above normal
through Friday night, then return to near to below normal readings
for Saturday.

.Marine...

An area of low pressure will track northeast across the region
Tonight, with a cold front crossing overnight into early Sunday.
High pressure will be centered to the northwest then north of the
region Sunday night into Monday. A west to east oriented frontal
boundary will develop across the region Monday night into Tuesday,
which will slowly lift to the north Wednesday into Thursday. High
pressure will build to the east Thursday night into Friday. A
cold front will move southeast across region Saturday.

Rip Currents  SE GA: Moderate through Sunday
              NE FL: Moderate through Sunday

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  60  39  64  51  69 /  10   0   0  30  60
SSI  61  48  62  55  69 /  20   0   0  30  50
JAX  68  46  67  56  75 /  20   0   0  20  50
SGJ  70  51  67  58  74 /  20  10  10  20  40
GNV  71  46  71  57  76 /  20   0   0  20  40
OCF  74  49  73  59  78 /  30   0  10  20  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for Waters
     from Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60
     NM-Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20
     to 60 NM-Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from
     20 to 60 NM.

&&

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