Special Marine Warning 69, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
843 PM EDT Tue May 4 2021

.UPDATE...
Isolated evening convection lingers over Flagler county near the
east coast seabreeze. This shower activity should die off as it
moves into the coastal waters before midnight. Another area of
convection over interior se Ga should continue past midnight as a
weakening squall line now near the Al-Ga border moves into our nw
counties around midnight. Expect activity to continue to weaken as
it moves across se Ga and into ne Fl late tonight with the
stronger part of the line remaining north of our area.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [715 PM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Hot and breezy day with temperatures already in the low 90s over
much of the area and highs reaching near record levels. JAX
record maximum temperature for today is 93 set in 2009 which could
potentially be tied or broken today (we're already at 92!).
Chances for isolated showers and storms this afternoon for areas
south of St. Augustine along the sea breeze and along the Altamaha
River basin associated with a pre-frontal trough moving through
the southeast CONUS. With very warm temperatures, instability is
high and there's just enough shear to allow a few isolated storms
to become organized enough to produce damaging winds or hail,
mainly in inland southeast Georgia. Tonight will be muggy, with
lows around 70. Patchy fog and low clouds could develop again in
the lower Suwannee Valley tonight and linger into Wednesday
morning.

.SHORT TERM [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...

A late season cold front currently draped along the lower
Mississippi Valley will continue its slow eastward progression
through Thursday night. On Wednesday, northeast Florida and
coastal Georgia will remain hot and humid side of the front with
breezy south-southwesterly winds that will bring a little relief
to temperatures in the upper 80s and low 90s. Southeast Georgia is
forecast to be slightly cooler with highs in the mid 80s, mostly
thanks to increased cloud coverage and chances for showers and
thunderstorms ahead of the approaching cold front. However if the
frontal movement slows, those cooler temperatures may be on the
optimistic side. The more heating we get tomorrow, the more we'll
destabilize, and with increasing shear ahead of the front, our
chances for strong to severe thunderstorms could also increase.
The main potential threats would again be damaging wind gusts and
hail.

The slowly progressing front is forecast to make it's way into
southeast Georgia late Wednesday night, then continue to slowly
push southeastward through our local area through Thursday night.
Along and ahead of the front, there remains the potential for a
few storms to produce some damaging wind gusts and hail. Behind
the front, a few lingering showers could continue into the evening
hours. Temperatures Thursday will peak in the 80s, then drop into
the mid 50s to low 60s Thursday night as a much cooler, drier air
mass works its way into the region.

.LONG TERM [Friday Through Tuesday]...

Friday and Saturday will be noticeably cooler and drier as high
pressure builds over the area in the wake of that late season cold
front. Highs will be in the upper 70s to low 80s Friday and low-
mid 80s on Saturday. After a couple days with mostly clear skies,
however, the airmass in place will modify and temperatures will
climb back into the upper 80s to low 90s by Sunday. Another late
season front will begin to develop over the southern Plains and
lower Mississippi Valley Tuesday, leading to isolated to scattered
storms ahead of it in southeast Georgia again on Tuesday and
Wednesday. Warm temperatures early next week will also mean an
isolated chance for seabreeze storms, mainly along the I-95
corridor.

.AVIATION...[Through 00Z Thursday]
VFR conditions will prevail this evening as isolated convection
decreases. The sw flow may advect low clouds and fog in from the
Gulf late tonight with MVFR/IFR conditions possible...mainly at
GNV 08Z-12z. Have VCSH during the morning hours on Wednesday at
TAF sites as weakening convection may move into the area from the
west. VCTS after 17z Wednesday.

.MARINE...

Moderate south-southwest winds are anticipated across the coastal
waters through Wednesday night ahead of an approaching front, with
winds around 15 to 20 knots over our offshore waters through
Wednesday. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms are anticipated
through Thursday. The front will push through the region Thursday
through Thursday night, bringing north-northwest winds around 15
to 20 knot to our offshore waters. A drier, cooler airmass will
move in for the weekend as high pressure builds over the
southeastern seaboard.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk today with longshore currents. Low
risk on Wednesday.

.FIRE WEATHER...

A frontal boundary will slowly push eastward into the area through
tomorrow, pushing through the area Thursday through Thursday night.
Ahead of this front, warm, humid conditions will prevail with elevated
southwest winds. These stronger winds will make for dispersion indices
peaking over 75 across the area today and across northeast Florida
tomorrow. RH values will remain above critical thresholds through
Thursday, then much drier air will arrive on Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  69  84  64  81  54 /  30  70  20  20  10
SSI  72  88  69  81  61 /  10  70  30  40  10
JAX  70  90  69  83  60 /  10  50  40  60  10
SGJ  71  90  71  83  63 /  20  30  40  60  20
GNV  69  89  68  85  58 /  10  30  40  60  10
OCF  71  92  71  88  61 /  10  10  30  50  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

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