Severe Thunderstorm Warning 136, NWS Jacksonville, FL

743 
WWUS52 KJAX 222151
SVSJAX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
551 PM EDT Thu Jul 22 2021

FLC121-222200-
/O.CON.KJAX.SV.W.0136.000000T0000Z-210722T2200Z/
Suwannee FL-
551 PM EDT Thu Jul 22 2021

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM EDT
FOR NORTHERN SUWANNEE COUNTY...

At 551 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles northeast of
Dowling Park, or 7 miles south of Suwannee River State Park, moving
east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Live Oak, Dowling Park, Mcalpin, Newburn and Houston. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Intense thunderstorm lines can produce brief tornadoes and widespread
significant wind damage. Although a tornado is not immediately
likely, it is best to move to an interior room on the lowest floor of
a building. This storm may cause serious injury and significant
property damage.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3026 8324 3029 8323 3031 8321 3035 8321
      3035 8317 3036 8316 3036 8312 3035 8285
      3011 8296 3020 8325 3023 8324 3023 8325
      3025 8324 3025 8325 3026 8325
TIME...MOT...LOC 2151Z 292DEG 25KT 3030 8313 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

23

411 
WWUS52 KJAX 222157
SVSJAX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
557 PM EDT Thu Jul 22 2021

FLC121-222207-
/O.EXP.KJAX.SV.W.0136.000000T0000Z-210722T2200Z/
Suwannee FL-
557 PM EDT Thu Jul 22 2021

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN SUWANNEE COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 600 PM EDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However gusty
winds are still possible with this thunderstorm.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
Jacksonville.

LAT...LON 3026 8324 3029 8323 3031 8321 3035 8321
      3035 8317 3036 8316 3036 8312 3035 8285
      3011 8296 3020 8325 3023 8324 3023 8325
      3025 8324 3025 8325 3026 8325
TIME...MOT...LOC 2157Z 292DEG 25KT 3029 8311 

$$

23

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
248 PM EDT Thu Jul 22 2021

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

West to Northwest steering flow south of the weak frontal boundary
across GA/SC will combine with daytime heating and Precipitable
Water Amounts (PWATs) close to 2 inches and kick off another round
of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms this afternoon
and evening. The westerly flow will push the heat/humidity all the
way to the Atlantic Coastal Counties/I-95 corridor with Max Temps
reaching into the lower to middle 90s and combined with dewpoint
temps only mixing out into the lower/middle 70s, expect peak heat
index values close to 105 degrees in some locations of NE FL. As
storms break out in the westerly flow across SE GA and track
towards the Atlc Coast expect interaction with the pinned East
Coast sea breeze front between the I-95 corridor and the beaches,
which will likely become strong to isolated severe during the
5pm-10pm time frame, especially from Jacksonville southward along
the I-95 corridor into St Augustine and Palm Coast around sunset.
Main impacts will be strong/severe wind gusts of 50-60 mph and
heavy rainfall. Storm motion will generally be from the West in
the 10 mph to 20 mph range. Scattered to numerous thunderstorm
activity this evening will fade around midnight as it pushes into
the Atlc Coastal waters or weakens over inland areas, with a few
lingering scattered showers/isolated storms during the overnight
hours. Humid/muggy lows in the mid/upper 70s are expected.

.SHORT TERM [Friday Through Saturday Night]...

The weak frontal boundary will move south through our area on
Friday, enhancing our sea-breeze convection and leading to
numerous to widespread afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms. The convection Friday will also have some upper
level enhancement as a series of shortwaves dig into the southeast
and northwest flow aloft of the area. Isolated strong to severe
thunderstorms will be possible Friday. The main potential hazards
Friday will be wind gusts to 50-60 mph, heavy rainfall, and
frequent lightning.

The weak surface frontal boundary is forecast to push south of
I-10 by Friday evening, resting south of the Ocala area by
Saturday morning. The upper level shortwaves will allow an area of
low pressure to deepen along the frontal boundary over our FL
Atlantic coastal waters. This will increase northeasterly onshore
flow on Saturday and advect in some drier air into the area. Those
northeasterly winds could also lead to some minor coastal flooding
issues along the Atlantic coast, ICWWs, and along the St. Johns
River basin during times of high tide, which will already be
elevated due to a full moon.

.LONG TERM [Sunday Through Thursday]...

Model agreement and confidence lowers significantly as we head
into next week as models are still in disagreement with how to
handle the development of the coastal low/trough to our east or
southeast. General consensus is that the feature will dissipate
next week and drift away or stretch apart. With generally onshore
flow gradually returning moisture to the area, we'll see hot and
muggy conditions with scattered diurnal convection. The highest
chances for showers and north-central FL area
(Gainesville/Palatka/Ocala), though again this could all change
depending on how the coastal low/trough situation evolves.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Friday]

The deep moisture in the W-NW flow is breaking out shower and
storm activity a bit earlier than anticipated and have tweaked the
upcoming TEMPO groups to earlier than previous TAF package with
18-22Z MVFR CIGS/VSBYS and gusty winds expected at SSI/GNV and
20-24Z at JAX/VQQ, 21-01z at CRG and 22-02z at SGJ under the
assumption that the ongoing convection across SE GA will coalesce
into a more organized line of storms with gusty winds/rainfall
that will last into the evening hours. Still expect mainly
improving conditions and a return to VFR conds during the
overnight hours in the 03-06Z time frame with a few lingering
showers and have kept the VCSH with this TAF package.

&&

.MARINE...

A weak frontal boundary will slowly push south through our area on
Friday. In its wake, northeast winds around 15 knots will develop
Saturday and offshore seas will build to 3 to 4 feet over the
weekend. Wind speeds and seas are forecast to be lower next week
under the influence of high pressure.

Rip Currents: Low risk of rip currents at all area beaches through
Friday. Moderate risk this weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Transport and 20 foot winds will be elevated over the area this
afternoon as a frontal boundary approaches us and along the
coastline this weekend as an area of low pressure develops to our
east or southeast. This will lead to marginally high dispersions
in the afternoon today and along the coastline Friday. Low daytime
dispersions anticipated in inland SE GA Friday. Otherwise,
relative humidity will remain well above critical thresholds for
the next several days, so no red flag conditions are anticipated.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Water levels continue to steadily recede through minor flood stage
along the Santa Fe River. Meanwhile rises continue along the
Satilla River near Offerman.

A full moon on Saturday combined with a shift to moderate
northeast onshore flow could lead to nuisance flooding at sites
along the Atlantic Coast, ICWWs, and St. Johns River during high
tide cycles.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  73  91  71  91  70 /  30  40  20  20   0
SSI  76  87  78  89  77 /  50  30  10  20  10
JAX  75  90  75  90  75 /  50  70  20  30  10
SGJ  75  88  75  88  75 /  70  60  30  30  10
GNV  75  92  74  91  72 /  30  70  60  40  10
OCF  75  91  74  90  73 /  20  80  70  50  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
414 PM EDT Thu Jul 22 2021

GAZ151-152-250-264-222100-
Pierce GA-Northeastern Charlton GA-Brantley GA-Northern Ware GA-
414 PM EDT Thu Jul 22 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN PIERCE...CENTRAL
BRANTLEY...EAST CENTRAL WARE AND NORTHEASTERN CHARLTON COUNTIES UNTIL
500 PM EDT...

* At 413 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm near Blackshear, moving east at 20
  mph.

* Winds in excess of 45 mph and minor flooding due to heavy rainfall
  is possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Blackshear, Nahunta, Hickox, Braganza, Raybon, Fort Mudge and
  Winokur.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Jacksonville on
Facebook and Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 3118 8235 3135 8229 3130 8187 3101 8199
TIME...MOT...LOC 2013Z 285DEG 16KT 3125 8224

23

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
428 PM EDT Thu Jul 22 2021

FLZ038-138-222100-
Coastal Flagler FL-Inland Flagler FL-
428 PM EDT Thu Jul 22 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN FLAGLER COUNTY UNTIL
500 PM EDT...

* At 428 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm 8 miles south of Bunnell, moving
  east at 25 mph.

* Winds in excess of 45 mph and minor flooding due to heavy rainfall
  is possible with this storm.

* This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southeastern
  Flagler County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Jacksonville on
Facebook and Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 2942 8114 2941 8115 2926 8115 2926 8138
      2928 8142 2931 8142 2946 8137 2945 8111
      2943 8110
TIME...MOT...LOC 2028Z 287DEG 20KT 2935 8126

23

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
452 PM EDT Thu Jul 22 2021

FLZ140-222115-
Eastern Marion FL-
452 PM EDT Thu Jul 22 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN MARION COUNTY UNTIL
515 PM EDT...

* At 452 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm near Pittman, or 8 miles south of
  Juniper Springs, moving east at 15 mph.

* Winds in excess of 45 mph and minor flooding due to heavy rainfall
  is possible with this storm.

* This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southeastern
  Marion County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Jacksonville on
Facebook and Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 2900 8181 2917 8176 2916 8164 2905 8164
      2905 8166 2896 8166 2896 8172
TIME...MOT...LOC 2052Z 286DEG 12KT 2907 8172

23

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
456 PM EDT Thu Jul 22 2021

FLZ020-122-GAZ162-163-222145-
Hamilton FL-Northern Columbia FL-Clinch GA-Echols GA-
456 PM EDT Thu Jul 22 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL COLUMBIA...
NORTHEASTERN HAMILTON...ECHOLS AND SOUTHWESTERN CLINCH COUNTIES UNTIL
545 PM EDT...

* At 456 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm near Mayday, or near Statenville,
  moving east at 20 mph.

* Winds in excess of 45 mph and minor flooding due to heavy rainfall
  is possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Statenville, Needmore and Mayday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Jacksonville on
Facebook and Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 3074 8313 3085 8307 3085 8301 3086 8301
      3087 8297 3078 8256 3050 8270 3065 8314
TIME...MOT...LOC 2056Z 290DEG 19KT 3078 8302

23

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
519 PM EDT Thu Jul 22 2021

FLZ020-021-023-030-122-222-222200-
Southern Columbia FL-Baker FL-Union FL-Hamilton FL-Suwannee FL-
Northern Columbia FL-
519 PM EDT Thu Jul 22 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL BAKER...WESTERN
UNION...CENTRAL COLUMBIA...SUWANNEE AND SOUTHERN HAMILTON COUNTIES
UNTIL 600 PM EDT...

* At 519 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm near Suwannee River State Park,
  moving east at 45 mph.

* Winds in excess of 45 mph and minor flooding due to heavy rainfall
  is possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Lake City, Live Oak, White Springs, Suwannee River State Park,
  Suwannee Springs, Winfield, Suwannee Valley, Mcalpin, Wellborn and
  Five Points.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Jacksonville on
Facebook and Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 3026 8324 3029 8323 3031 8321 3035 8321
      3035 8319 3038 8319 3039 8317 3041 8318
      3042 8322 3046 8322 3047 8324 3050 8324
      3037 8242 3004 8251 3018 8325 3023 8324
      3023 8325 3025 8324 3026 8325
TIME...MOT...LOC 2119Z 290DEG 40KT 3036 8310

23