Flash Flood Watch 1, NWS Jacksonville, FL

016 
WGUS62 KJAX 030319
FFAJAX

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1019 PM EST Sat Jan 2 2021

FLZ020-GAZ132>136-149-151-152-162-163-250-350-030430-
/O.CAN.KJAX.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-210103T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Hamilton-Coffee-Jeff Davis-Bacon-Appling-Wayne-Atkinson-Pierce-
Brantley-Echols-Clinch-Northern Ware-Southern Ware-
Including the cities of Jasper, Jennings, West Lake, Belmont, 
White Springs, Douglas, Hazlehurst, Alma, New Lacy, Baxley, 
Pine Grove, Plant Hatch, Doctortown, Gardi, Jesup, Axson, 
Pearson, Willacoochee, Blackshear, Atkinson, Hickox, Hortense, 
Nahunta, Raybon, Waynesville, Hoboken, Needmore, Statenville, 
Homerville, Needham, and Waycross
1019 PM EST Sat Jan 2 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flash Flood Watch for portions of northern Florida and
southeast Georgia has been cancelled. Periods of locally heavy
rainfall are possible through the overnight hours, but the threat
of flash flooding has diminished.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1213 PM EST Sat Jan 2 2021

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Sunday]

Widespread IFR Cigs this morning gradually lifting into MVFR range currently.
May see at least some partial clearing of these lower Cigs this afternoon.
Band of showers/isolated TSRA over Srn GA/Ern FL Panhandle is forecast
to shift eastward late this afternoon and Tonight, along with lower Cigs.
18Z TAFs show chances for SHRA and lower Cigs increasing after 04Z,
with best chance over TAF sites in the 08Z-13Z period. Cold front moves
thru thereafter, shifting SW winds to W during the morning Sunday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION {827 am EST]...

.UPDATE...

Strong storm system was centered over the southern Plains this
morning. A band of showers and storms was maintained from our
interior SE GA counties southwestward over the eastern FL
panhandle and across much of the northern and central Gulf of
Mexico...mainly parallel to the southwesterly flow aloft.
Latest high-res guidance keeps this rain band in place over
our westernmost counties through the day, gradually spreading
eastward late in the day and Tonight as the upper system
approaches from the west. There may also be widely scattered
light showers ahead of this band, as currently seen on radar W of
JAX...covering this potential with 10-20 POP given isolated
measurable amounts. Made some adjustments to hourly weather and
POP grids to account for the above. No other changes in update.

Main threat appears to be locally heavy rainfall over our western
counties in SE GA...could see 1-2 inch rainfalls with locally
heavier amounts where midday/afternoon heavier showers/t-storms
occur. Could see gusty winds with stronger storms to develop,
but instability expected to be insufficient for a more substantial
severe weather threat.

&&

.MARINE...

Southerly winds 10-15 kts expected through Tonight coastal waters...
a little stronger offshore waters...ahead of stalled boundary to the
west of the local waters. Winds shift to the west behind the front
at similar speeds on Sunday then Northwest Sunday night, likely just
below Small Craft Advisory headlines. As High pressure builds in
West of the waters early next week expect the offshore flow
generally in the 10-15 knot range to continue through Tuesday.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk of rips lingers along the NE FL
beaches with south flow and surf/breakers of 2-3 ft otherwise
expect low risk at SE GA beaches today and all beaches on Sunday
as offshore flow develops.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  72  54  62  37  59 / 100 100  10   0   0
SSI  72  58  67  42  60 /  40  90  30   0   0
JAX  78  61  70  41  63 /  20  80  40   0   0
SGJ  78  63  70  45  63 /  10  60  60   0   0
GNV  79  61  70  39  63 /  20  80  30   0   0
OCF  81  61  70  42  65 /  10  80  40   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&