Areal Flood Warning 76, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
755 PM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021

.UPDATE...

Merger of sea breeze fronts produced strong storms with heavy
rainfall over inland NE FL and just west of the I-95 corridor in
SE GA, this activity will slowly fade after sunset with most of
the area rain-free around midnight, leaving just some slowly
dissipating convective debris clouds during the overnight hours.
Expecting another muggy night with lows in the middle 70s inland
and upper 70s/near 80 degrees along the Atlc Coastal areas. Some
patchy fog possible over inland areas around sunrise where
rainfall occurred this afternoon. As high pressure ridge continues
to retrograde westward into the Northern Gulf of Mexico a more
West to Northwest steering flow will develop on Friday and this
will lead to scattered to numerous convection development along
the sea breeze fronts that will drift back towards the I-95
corridor and Atlc Coastal areas with storms expected for areas
that got missed from today's convection. Prior to the onset of
convection still expect another hot/humid day with highs into the
lower/middle 90s and Heat Indices peaking out into the 104-108
range, very close to Heat Advisory levels once again across
Northeast Florida and coastal Southeast Georgia.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [723 PM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Tonight through Friday]...Deep ridge across the area
will keep convection scattered this evening with the best chances
over the interior. The mid-upper ridge starts to shift to the
west late Friday as a trough digs south near the east coast.
In addition to afternoon seabreeze convection, storms to the
north may develop over se Ga by late afternoon and move s into ne
Fl Friday evening and night. Hot and humid conditions will continue
with light winds. Heat indices on Friday will be near or just
below heat advisory criteria.

.SHORT TERM [Friday night Through Sunday Night]...Trough along the
east coast will lift TS Henri to the north this weekend. The
area will be in a westerly flow with deep moisture across the
area. Scattered to numerous coverage of diurnal convection is
expected with sea breeze mergers occurring closer to the east
coast given the westerly flow. High afternoon heat indices will
persist.

.LONG TERM [Monday Through Thursday]...The upper ridge will build
back across the mid-Atlantic states Monday through Wednesday. Some
drier air aloft and an easterly steering flow should result in
mostly scattered coverage of convection with the highest pops over
areas well inland. An easterly wave on Thursday may bring an
increase in moisture and rain chances. Temperatures will be near
average August levels.

.AVIATION...
[Through 00Z Saturday]

Intense line of convection has remained for the most part just
west of the TAF sites, already impacting GNV prior to 00Z and
might clip VQQ from 00-01Z, otherwise have just handled with VCTS
at all TAF sites through 01-02Z except for CRG/SGJ which should
remain storm free this evening. After 02-03Z should be VFR with
some leftover higher convective debris clouds, then some patchy
MVFR FOG expected at the inland TAF sites of GNV/VQQ from 07-11z
time frame. Another day of hot/humid conditions will lead to VCTS
starting by 18Z at all TAF sites and another afternoon with
scattered storms area-wide that should push all the way to the
beaches, so have included PROB30 groups for MVFR storm activity
from 18-24Z except for 20-24Z at GNV where convection may kick in
a bit later on.

.MARINE...A ridge of high pressure along the U.S. Atlantic
coastline will weaken as a trough moves to the east coast
lifting Tropical Storm Henri to the north on Friday. Winds will
be mostly from the south to southwest the next few days with
increasing swells late tonight into the weekend. Caution levels
may develop over offshore as combined seas reach up to 6 feet
Friday into Saturday.

Rip Currents: Moderate to possibly high risk through the weekend
as long period swells arrive from distant TS Henri.

.HYDROLOGY...Minor flooding on the Suwannee River with minor to
moderate on parts of the Santa Fe River. River levels will
continue to fall the next few days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  74  92  73  92  74 /  20  50  30  60  30
SSI  77  91  76  90  77 /  10  50  40  50  40
JAX  75  95  75  93  75 /  20  70  50  60  30
SGJ  75  93  75  92  75 /  10  50  40  50  20
GNV  74  94  74  92  74 /  70  40  30  60  10
OCF  73  94  74  93  74 /  50  30  30  50  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
711 PM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021

GAZ152-153-165-200015-
Inland Glynn GA-Inland Camden GA-Brantley GA-
711 PM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Camden,
southwestern Glynn and east central Brantley Counties through 815 PM
EDT...

At 711 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Waverly, or 11 miles north of Woodbine. This storm was nearly
stationary.

HAZARD...Minor flooding due to heavy rainfall.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor flooding due to heavy rainfall is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Waverly and Waynesville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3119 8156 3117 8158 3104 8167 3109 8185
      3120 8187 3128 8177
TIME...MOT...LOC 2311Z 278DEG 1KT 3112 8170

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

BOOTHE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
715 PM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021

FLZ035-236-200000-
Western Alachua FL-Gilchrist FL-
715 PM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
Gilchrist and west central Alachua Counties through 800 PM EDT...

At 715 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles northwest of Archer, or 12 miles east of Trenton, moving south
at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Minor flooding due to heavy rainfall.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor flooding due to heavy rainfall is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Newberry.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 2970 8266 2971 8254 2954 8256 2953 8265
      2955 8266 2956 8266 2957 8270
TIME...MOT...LOC 2315Z 015DEG 9KT 2964 8261

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

BOOTHE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
745 PM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021

FLZ020-021-122-222-200045-
Southern Columbia FL-Hamilton FL-Suwannee FL-Northern Columbia FL-
745 PM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of west central
Columbia, east central Suwannee and southeastern Hamilton Counties
through 845 PM EDT...

At 745 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Suwannee Valley, or near White Springs, moving northwest at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Minor flooding due to heavy rainfall.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor flooding due to heavy rainfall is possible.

Locations impacted include...
White Springs, Five Points, Winfield and Suwannee Valley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3022 8262 3021 8280 3040 8286 3040 8266
TIME...MOT...LOC 2345Z 154DEG 8KT 3030 8272

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

BOOTHE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
828 PM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021

FLZ020-122-GAZ162-200115-
Hamilton FL-Northern Columbia FL-Echols GA-
828 PM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of north central
Columbia, eastern Hamilton and south central Echols Counties through
915 PM EDT...

At 827 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Belmont, or 7 miles north of White Springs, moving northwest at 10
mph.

HAZARD...Minor flooding due to heavy rainfall.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor flooding due to heavy rainfall is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Belmont.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3039 8265 3038 8285 3066 8297 3068 8272
TIME...MOT...LOC 0027Z 157DEG 8KT 3044 8279

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

BOOTHE

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