Areal Flood Warning 73, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
416 PM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021

...

.NEAR TERM [Tonight through Friday]...Deep ridge across the area
will keep convection scattered this evening with the best chances
over the interior. The mid-upper ridge starts to shift to the
west late Friday as a trough digs south near the east coast.
In addition to afternoon seabreeze convection, storms to the
north may develop over se Ga by late afternoon and move s into ne
Fl Friday evening and night. Hot and humid conditions will continue
with light winds. Heat indices on Friday will be near or just
below heat advisory criteria.

.SHORT TERM [Friday night Through Sunday Night]...Trough along the
east coast will lift TS Henri to the north this weekend. The
area will be in a westerly flow with deep moisture across the
area. Scattered to numerous coverage of diurnal convection is
expected with sea breeze mergers occurring closer to the east
coast given the westerly flow. High afternoon heat indices will
persist.

.LONG TERM [Monday Through Thursday]...The upper ridge will build
back across the mid-Atlantic states Monday through Wednesday. Some
drier air aloft and an easterly steering flow should result in
mostly scattered coverage of convection with the highest pops over
areas well inland. An easterly wave on Thursday may bring an
increase in moisture and rain chances. Temperatures will be near
average August levels.

&&

.MARINE...A ridge of high pressure along the U.S. Atlantic
coastline will weaken as a trough moves to the east coast
lifting Tropical Storm Henri to the north on Friday. Winds will
be mostly from the south to southwest the next few days with
increasing swells late tonight into the weekend. Caution levels
may develop over offshore as combined seas reach up to 6 feet
Friday into Saturday.

Rip Currents: Moderate to possibly high risk through the weekend
as long period swells arrive from distant TS Henri.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Minor flooding on the Suwannee River with minor to
moderate on parts of the Santa Fe River. River levels will
continue to fall the next few days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  74  90  72  90  74 /  10  30  30  60  30
SSI  77  92  76  91  78 /  20  60  50  50  40
JAX  75  95  75  93  76 /  20  50  40  60  30
SGJ  74  92  75  92  76 /  20  40  30  50  20
GNV  74  94  74  91  74 /  60  30  30  60  10
OCF  74  94  73  92  74 /  60  20  30  50  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for Baker-Bradford-
     Central Marion-Coastal Duval-Coastal Flagler-Coastal Nassau-
     Coastal St. Johns-Eastern Alachua-Eastern Clay-Eastern
     Marion-Eastern Putnam-Gilchrist-Hamilton-Inland Flagler-
     Inland Nassau-Inland St. Johns-Northern Columbia-South
     Central Duval-Southern Columbia-Suwannee-Trout River-Union-
     Western Alachua-Western Clay-Western Duval-Western Marion-
     Western Putnam.

GA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for Brantley-Clinch-
     Coastal Camden-Coastal Glynn-Echols-Inland Camden-Inland
     Glynn-Northeastern Charlton-Southern Ware-Western Charlton.

AM...None.
&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
523 PM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021

FLZ024-425-192145-
Western Duval FL-Inland Nassau FL-
523 PM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Nassau and
north central Duval Counties through 545 PM EDT...

At 522 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Nassau Village-Ratliff, or near Callahan, moving south at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Jacksonville International Arpt and Nassau Village-Ratliff.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3063 8178 3059 8169 3047 8167 3046 8174
      3053 8184
TIME...MOT...LOC 2122Z 020DEG 6KT 3056 8174

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

BOOTHE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
554 PM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021

FLZ136-222-236-192245-
Eastern Alachua FL-Southern Columbia FL-Western Alachua FL-
554 PM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of western Alachua and
south central Columbia Counties through 645 PM EDT...

At 554 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Alachua, or 12 miles west of Gainesville, moving west at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Minor flooding due to heavy rainfall.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor flooding due to heavy rainfall is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Alachua, High Springs, University Of Florida and Micanopy.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 2992 8267 2995 8254 2949 8225 2949 8249
TIME...MOT...LOC 2154Z 079DEG 6KT 2971 8254

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

BOOTHE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
606 PM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021

FLZ023-192245-
Baker FL-
606 PM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Baker
County through 645 PM EDT...

At 605 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Glen St. Mary, or 13 miles north of Raiford, moving southwest at 10
mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and minor flooding due to heavy
         rainfall.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor flooding due to heavy rainfall is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Macclenny, Glen St. Mary and Sanderson.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3035 8226 3036 8205 3030 8205 3014 8214
      3014 8237
TIME...MOT...LOC 2205Z 036DEG 9KT 3026 8221

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

BOOTHE

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
630 PM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021

FLZ240-340-192315-
Central Marion FL-Western Marion FL-
630 PM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Marion
County through 715 PM EDT...

At 630 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles east of Williston, moving southwest at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and minor flooding due to heavy
         rainfall.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor flooding due to heavy rainfall is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Ocala, Ocala Airport and Flemington.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 2926 8241 2948 8240 2949 8228 2930 8218
      2913 8211 2909 8239
TIME...MOT...LOC 2230Z 024DEG 5KT 2941 8235

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

BOOTHE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
633 PM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021

FLZ030-136-222-236-192330-
Eastern Alachua FL-Southern Columbia FL-Western Alachua FL-Union FL-
633 PM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern
Alachua, southwestern Union and southern Columbia Counties through
730 PM EDT...

At 633 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Providence, or 8 miles east of Ichetucknee Spring, moving northwest
at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and minor flooding due to heavy
         rainfall.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor flooding due to heavy rainfall is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Lake City, Columbia, Fort White, Upland Pines, Providence, Five
Points and Watertown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 2991 8249 2984 8268 2999 8275 3024 8279
      3024 8253
TIME...MOT...LOC 2233Z 145DEG 5KT 3000 8264

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

BOOTHE