Areal Flood Warning 68, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
714 PM EDT Mon Aug 9 2021

.AVIATION...
[Through 00Z Wednesday]

Showers and storms have moved westward away from the TAF sites
with some lingering near KGNV for the next couple of hours. Patchy
fog may be possible at KVQQ in the early morning hours. Isolated showers
and storms develop again tomorrow afternoon with the best chance at
KGNV, KJAX and KVQQ.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [339 PM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Tonight through Tuesday]...High pressure ridge with
light winds located across the area today. Scattered showers and
storms have developed and may produce strong gusty winds as dry
air aloft contributes to downburst potential. Light steering winds
will also result in some areas of locally heavy rainfall. Best
coverage should occur over the interior where seabreezes and
outflow boundaries merge this afternoon/evening. Expect convection
to weaken and dissipate by midnight with decreased heating.
Similar conditions expected on Tuesday as the subtropical ridge
remains over the area.

.SHORT TERM [Tuesday night through Thursday Night]...
Deep layer ridge will shift to the north of the area through the
period. Convection will be more likely inland as the east coast
seabreeze moves well inland. A light deep easterly flow will produce
a slow cell motion to the west. Near average temperatures will
persist.

.LONG TERM [Friday Through Monday]...Subtropical ridge will remain
to the north maintaining the easterly flow. An increase in tropical
moisture and shower/thunderstorm activity is expected this weekend
into early next week. Models show a tropical disturbance moving
westward to the vicinity of south Florida this weekend. A lot of
uncertainty exists on the development and track of this system.
Rain chances should be at or above average with daytime temperatures
at or slightly below average.

.MARINE...Surface ridge over the waters will gradually lift north
the next several days. An easterly flow with a developing swell
will persist through the week. A tropical disturbance in the
Atlantic may bring an increase in winds/seas by the weekend as it
moves westward.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk will continue the next few days due to
onshore winds and a developing easterly swell.

.FIRE WEATHER...Light winds over the area will result in low
dispersions especially over inland areas through Wednesday.

.HYDROLOGY...Recent heavy rainfall has caused minor to moderate
flooding on the Santa Fe and St. Marys River..to continue the
next several days. Minor flooding also ongoing on the Suwannee and
Satilla Rivers.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  73  92  72  91  72 /  10  20  10  40  10
SSI  78  89  78  89  78 /  10  10  10  20   0
JAX  75  92  75  91  75 /  10  40  10  30  10
SGJ  75  89  75  90  75 /  10  20  10  20  10
GNV  74  92  73  91  73 /  30  30  10  50  10
OCF  73  92  73  92  73 /  30  60  20  50  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

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