Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
606 AM CST Mon Dec 6 2021

.UPDATE...
Updated for 12Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF discussion:

A cold front moving NW to SE will bring hazardous aviation
weather to the area as we go through today. Ahead of the front,
we'll continue to see widespready MVFR/IFR ceilings along with
increasing TSRA activity and southerly surface wind. A squall
line and wind shift to NW will accompany the frontal passage that
should reach GLH/GWO by mid morning, and eventually the HBG/PIB
area by early to mid afternoon. Following the frontal passage
will be a short duration of RA/VCTS with continued gusty NW-N
surface wind. Ceilings will rise to mostly VFR category this
evening and VFR conditions should prevail thereafter through the
overnight. /EC/

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through tonight...forced ascent in an unstable and moist
environment ahead of an approaching cold front is resulting in a
squall line that should move quickly across the forecast area
today. Fairly strong low level flow coinciding with the deep
convection will support a threat for damaging wind gusts, but
unfavorable low level shear vectors oriented mostly parallel to
the convective line should help mitigate a more significant wind
threat. Otherwise, expect brief very heavy rainfall to accompany
the line with lingering rain and much cooler, polar air to follow
in it's wake. By this evening, the rain should be over for the
most part and cold advection will continue through the night with
temperatures dipping well into the 30s north of the I-20 corridor.
Folks planning to be outdoors late tonight into the early morning
will want to be prepared for uncomfortable conditions given
continued northerly breezes. /EC/

Tuesday through next weekend (Sunday)...

(Tues-Fri): An active pattern of perturbed westerly flow will
persist through the week. At the start on Tues, frontal zone will
have shifted off to the SE over the N Gulf Coast, while strong sfc
high will be moving through the Mid-W. With widespread clouds,
this will combine with cooler low-level thermo, leading to highs
only in low-mid 50s areawide. Lingering ascent from N Gulf
shortwave trough & moisture will help some showers move back in
E-SE, generally SE of a Natchez to Meridian line. A few storms
can't be ruled out due to some elevated instability, but most
should remain showers. With strong sfc high to the N, lows will be
chilly in the low 40s N to near 50 degrees in S Wed morn. Any
showers should begin to wind down before midnight Wed but could
pick back up by Wed morn, with a rumble of thunder possible. Highs
will remain cool but near climo in low-mid 60s or so.

Thurs-Fri: Another jet streak will develop over the central
Plains/TX Panhandle into Thurs & eject E-NE. This will help fav
right entrance region/diffluence & ascent, with moisture climbing
back to the 1.25-1.5 inch PW mark. Strong WAA will help low-level
thermo warm into the mid-upper teens by late week. With moisture &
ascent on the increase, sct rain & storm chances will move back in
across most areas S of I-20 Thur & areawide into Fri. With some
subtle 30-40kt westerly bulk shear & some lapse
rates/destabilization, some sct strong storms can't be ruled out
Fri. Mean synoptic positive tilt trough will evolve over the
Intermountain W into the Plains/Mid-W by late week. 100-150kt jet at
500mb & 300mb, respectively, will help strong 990-995mb sfc cyclone
to deepen over the Plains & eject NE into Great Lakes. This will
help WAA & warm front lift E-NE, & strongest ascent/forcing into the
weekend.

Sat-Sun: As the 990mb sfc cyclone moves into the Great Lakes, sfc
cold front will swing E-SE. Base of the mean positive tilt trough is
progged to move E-SE out of the Intermountain W through Sat & into
Sun move through the area. This will help the strongest
ascent/forcing & powerful upper jet (i.e. 100-130kt at 500mb & 150-
170kt at 300mb) to develop over the Great Lakes/OH Valley down into
the Mid-S & Ozarks. Fav jet dynamics/right entrance region will help
rain & storm chances to quickly develop across the Mid-S, ArkLaTex &
front swing E-SE through the day. With strong shear of 50-70kts at 0-
3 & 0-6km, respectively, some strong, organized convection is
possible. But overnight timing, limited lapse rates & SW mean bulk
shear parallel to line orientation should limit most severe
potential. Will remain something to watch. Highs will be tricky &
faster progged timing lends credence to lower highs in Delta but
warmer to the E-SE. This will be a tough call & some highs could
occur near or before daybreak. Trough & front are progged to swing
through into Sun, with nearly 1030mb sfc high building into the
region Sun. This will bring strong isentropic subsidence, drying
moisture profiles (i.e. PWs less than quarter inch) & clearing
skies/cooler temps near below normal in the mid-upper 50s. /DC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       70  41  54  46 /  96  18  21  39
Meridian      71  40  52  45 /  93  25  26  44
Vicksburg     71  41  54  46 /  96   7  15  33
Hattiesburg   74  46  56  50 /  91  57  45  46
Natchez       71  45  56  50 /  93  20  28  41
Greenville    67  35  52  42 /  95   0  11  17
Greenwood     68  36  53  43 /  96   1  11  22

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
319 AM CST Mon Dec 6 2021

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ034>037-040>044-047>050-
053>055-059>061-070930-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Washington-
Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-
Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Claiborne-Copiah-Simpson-Jefferson-
Adams-Franklin MS-
319 AM CST Mon Dec 6 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, northwest
Mississippi, southwest Mississippi, and west central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...Today

A squall line moving across the area this morning into the early
afternoon will bring a slight risk for damaging wind gusts. A
tornado cannot be ruled out.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today.

MSZ018-019-025>033-038-039-045-046-051-052-056>058-062>066-
072>074-070930-
Bolivar-Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-
Lowndes-Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Winston-Noxubee-Neshoba-Kemper-Newton-
Lauderdale-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Lincoln-Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-
Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
319 AM CST Mon Dec 6 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi, east central Mississippi, north central Mississippi,
south central Mississippi, and southeast Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...Today

A squall line moving across the area today will bring a marginal
risk for isolated damaging wind gusts.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today.

20

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
High...Significant severe thunderstorms are expected.
Moderate...Severe storms expected with significant
 severe weather possible.
Enhanced...Severe storms expected.
Slight...Severe storms possible.
Marginal...Isolated severe storms possible.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/
Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Storm Reports...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
659 AM CST Mon Dec 6 2021

MSZ018-061330-
Bolivar MS-
659 AM CST Mon Dec 6 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Bolivar
County through 730 AM CST...

At 659 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southeast of Rosedale, moving southeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Cleveland, Renova and Boyle around 715 AM CST.
  Shaw around 720 AM CST.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Winstonville, Beulah,
Pace and Merigold.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3388 9066 3362 9066 3362 9076 3356 9076
      3367 9104 3369 9103 3372 9106 3370 9110
      3373 9115 3378 9113 3377 9111 3378 9105
      3376 9103 3378 9099 3380 9100 3384 9107
      3387 9107 3399 9091
TIME...MOT...LOC 1259Z 304DEG 38KT 3378 9094

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

DC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
734 AM CST Mon Dec 6 2021

MSZ030>033-061415-
Lowndes MS-Oktibbeha MS-Clay MS-Choctaw MS-
734 AM CST Mon Dec 6 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northeastern Choctaw,
northern Oktibbeha, southeastern Clay and Lowndes Counties through
815 AM CST...

At 734 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 7 miles northeast of West Point to near Pheba
to near Sherwood. Movement was east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Kolola Springs around 750 AM CST.
  West Point, Caledonia and Muldrow around 755 AM CST.
  Tibbee around 800 AM CST.
  Sessums around 805 AM CST.
  Waverly around 810 AM CST.
  Columbus, Columbus AFB, Bent Oak and Steens around 815 AM CST.

Other locations impacted by these storms include Artesia.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3341 8829 3341 8924 3375 8872 3368 8872
      3368 8850 3367 8849 3366 8852 3365 8851
      3366 8850 3366 8846 3368 8843 3367 8842
      3369 8839 3369 8837 3372 8833 3374 8833
      3374 8825
TIME...MOT...LOC 1334Z 268DEG 35KT 3370 8858 3353 8892 3344 8907

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

DC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
808 AM CST Mon Dec 6 2021

MSZ031-033-039-061445-
Lowndes MS-Oktibbeha MS-Noxubee MS-
808 AM CST Mon Dec 6 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Noxubee,
southeastern Oktibbeha and southern Lowndes Counties through 845 AM
CST...

At 806 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Crawford, or 12 miles southeast of Starkville, moving southeast at
30 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Crawford around 815 AM CST.
  Brooksville around 825 AM CST.
  Deerbrook around 830 AM CST.
  Prairie Point and Bigbee Valley around 845 AM CST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Wind gusts near 50 mph and pea sized hail has been reported with
this line of storms. This storm may intensify, so be certain to
monitor local radio stations and available television stations for
additional information and possible warnings from the National
Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3306 8833 3300 8881 3329 8882 3335 8880
      3334 8830
TIME...MOT...LOC 1406Z 314DEG 24KT 3334 8865

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

7

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