Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
253 PM CDT Mon Jul 26 2021

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and tomorrow...
A weak surface high pressure ridge is dominating much of the
country on the surface map...including much of the Gulf Coast
states. A broad upper level ridge is keeping the warm and muggy
airmass in place through the near term...and helping to suppress
much of the convection and limit its movement across the region.
Afternoon showers and possible thunder continue to reinforce llvl
moisture in a hot and humid airmass...continuing some of the
chc/slt chc pops beyond 00Z given the last few days the
convection's outflow has perpetuated isld showers/storms beyond
sunset. Winds very light/calm on obs across the area this
afternoon enhancing the impacts of the high heat index values
across the region. Same lack of flow is causing most showers to be
stationary...and with PWs in the 2-2.3 range, nearly stationary
precip will have the ability to put down a lot of water quickly. Will
need to watch them this afternoon for flooding concerns.
Overnight tonight, persistence implies that enhanced llvl RH will
result in some patchy fog in low lying areas...best chances will
be the same area that gets any precip today. Tomorrow will bring
much of the same, and temps and heat indices on par with todays
forecast with the airmass largely unchanged. Starting with the
area with the greatest chances for exceeding heat advisory
criteria...from the Delta to east of I-55 corridor, and including
the HBG area. Model coverage of the showers and thunderstorms
tomorrow seem to again be more widespread, which may end up
tempering the forecast highs if it develops soon enough. Given
that JAN sites were hitting criteria as early as 15Z...going to
go with the Heat Advisory anyway.

Tuesday Night through Sunday...
An old surface boundary will remain the focusing mechanism for
convection across the forecast area through mid-week. Ridging
aloft will begin building back into the region Thursday into
Friday. As this happens and temperatures warm aloft during this
time, rain chances will become more isolated to scattered in
nature during the afternoon and evening hours. This will likewise
result in less relief from the ongoing heat and humidity across
the area.

Ridging aloft will be in overall control of our weather over the
upcoming weekend.  Convection will again remain isolated to
scattered at best mainly during the afternoon and evening hours.
However, models do hint that a boundary could sag south into the
area overnight into early Monday morning, with rain chances
lingering during this time.  The high heat and humidity levels,
really throughout the remainder of the work week and over the
weekend, will maintain concern for dangerous heat stress conditions
during the forecast period. Therefore, I'll keep the ongoing
advertisement for this threat in the afternoon HWO, with heat
advisories remaining possible each day across portions of the
forecast area. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF discussion:
Convection is getting started already over portions of the
CWA...and sat imagery backs up the presence of some
agitated/towering cu...enough to warrant the VCSH/VCTS for all
terminals this afternoon. With very little flow...storm motion is
limited severely, and showers/TS will basically form over the area
they impact...resulting in short term amendments. Overnight,
bringing TAFs down to MVFR/IFR vis...and lower cigs in east.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       76  93  75  94 /  24  63  28  62
Meridian      75  93  74  94 /  24  65  30  61
Vicksburg     77  93  76  94 /  21  60  24  51
Hattiesburg   76  95  74  94 /  18  49  24  70
Natchez       75  93  75  93 /  17  51  24  57
Greenville    76  93  76  95 /  20  59  15  28
Greenwood     76  93  75  95 /  20  64  15  31

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for MSZ018-019-
     025>027-034>036-040>043-047>049-053>055-059>065-072>074.

     Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ018-019-025-
     034>036-040>043-047>049-053>055-059>064-072.

LA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for LAZ007>009-015-
     016-023>026.

     Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

AR...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ074-075.

     Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ074-075.

&&

19/HJS

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