Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
314 PM CDT Sun Jul 18 2021

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Tomorrow...

Things have been pretty progressive this morning and throughout the
day today. Although rain is expected through the night, showers and
storms are expected to continue along this forward propagation
pattern through this evening and into the night. Dropped the flash
flooding HWO graphic due to this newly made assessment.  As we get
into early Monday morning possibly around 4/5AM, flow aloft is
expected to pick back up(850mb winds between 15-20kts) across the
west and some backing/buildup may be possible. With this kind of
flow and winds being out of the west this is a good set up for some
training to occur. According to CAM guidance at least 2-3 inches of
rain could fall in a short amount of time. There is still some
uncertainties as to exactly where this training set up could occur.
Some guidance puts it across SHV region and others closer to the
western parts of our area.

Due to this uncertainty will hold off on introducing anything into
the HWO for Monday and wait until a few more model runs to better
assess an area of interest. We are currently in a very moist
atmosphere(PWs around 2") so regardless it will be raining across
the ArkLaMiss much of the day tomorrow. Thunderstorms are expected
tomorrow and even a few may become briefly strong with gusty winds
but any severe potential at this time is low. With increased
cloud cover expected tomorrow, highs will only range from the
lower to mid 80s./JNE/

Monday night into the weekend...

Our wet pattern continues across the region early this week as the
upper trough axis lingers over us. This will combine with sufficient
moisture(PW values forecast to remain around 2 inches into at least
mid-week) and daytime heating to bring higher than usual rain
chances to the region. By Wednesday, this upper trough finally looks
to exit the region with upper ridging trying to exert more of an
influence for mid to late week and especially into the weekend. In
fact, models indicate that by the weekend and into early next week,
a rather large ridge of high pressure over the western CONUS will
expand further east, shunting any kind of troughing pattern north
and east of the region. This will all lead to more of a hotter
weather pattern for late in the week. Rain chances will become more
diurnal in nature. Highs will reach back into the 90s, and heat
stress may become more of a concern for the region, especially if we
hold onto any low to mid 70s dewpoints. This could result in heat
indices approaching 100 degrees in some locations. While potential
for severe weather will need to be assessed on more of a daily basis
through the long term, given saturated soils and high moisture
content, any storm has potential for flooding if the flow is not
strong enough and rainfall is efficient. /28/

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF discussion:
VFR, MVFR, IFR, and LIFR conditions will prevail through the TAF
period. Sites across the northwest will drop to IFR at some point
during early tomorrow morning due to expected convective rainfall.
Vis should start to improve through the morning. Same for MEI,
HBG, and PIB. Only difference with HBG and PIB, patchy fog can be
expected during the early morning and ceilings will drop to LIFR
but as day break approaches vis should improve to MVFR. Heavy
downpours and thunderstorms will be the case starting late tonight
lasting through tomorrow evening so sites will bounce around
between VFR and MVFR through out the day tomorrow. Winds will
generally be light(unless a storm rolls though and gusts could be
between 15-20kts) and out of the S/W/SW./JNE/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       73  84  71  85 /  65  91  67  81
Meridian      72  83  69  85 /  61  93  70  86
Vicksburg     74  85  71  85 /  68  77  64  68
Hattiesburg   74  85  71  85 /  32  94  72  88
Natchez       74  85  70  85 /  49  87  76  73
Greenville    73  85  70  85 /  71  69  42  60
Greenwood     73  85  70  86 /  79  74  53  72

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

JNE/28

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
236 PM CDT Sun Jul 18 2021

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
191945-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Bolivar-
Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-
Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Winston-
Noxubee-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-
Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Claiborne-Copiah-
Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln-
Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
236 PM CDT Sun Jul 18 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, north central
Mississippi, and south central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Monday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday night through Saturday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Saturday.

14

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

No short term hazards expected.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Tropical page...
   https://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical?office=jan
National Hurricane Center Home Page...
   https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
216 PM CDT Sun Jul 18 2021

MSZ019-025-181945-
Leflore MS-Sunflower MS-
216 PM CDT Sun Jul 18 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN SUNFLOWER AND
NORTHWESTERN LEFLORE COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM CDT...

At 216 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
over Ruleville, moving east at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Blaine around 220 PM CDT.
  Sunnyside, Minter City and Money around 245 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Schlater and
Doddsville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3385 9045 3381 9045 3381 9018 3379 9017
      3376 9019 3376 9025 3375 9030 3373 9031
      3370 9030 3369 9029 3370 9026 3374 9024
      3372 9022 3372 9019 3347 9026 3347 9051
      3356 9064 3387 9065
TIME...MOT...LOC 1916Z 269DEG 27KT 3368 9056

CME

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
224 PM CDT Sun Jul 18 2021

ARZ074-075-LAZ007-008-182015-
Chicot AR-Ashley AR-Morehouse LA-West Carroll LA-
224 PM CDT Sun Jul 18 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN CHICOT AND
SOUTHEASTERN ASHLEY COUNTIES...NORTHEASTERN MOREHOUSE AND
NORTHEASTERN WEST CARROLL PARISHES UNTIL 315 PM CDT...

At 224 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
over Wilmot, moving east at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Eudora around 305 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Kilbourne.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3318 9166 3317 9121 3289 9132 3296 9181
TIME...MOT...LOC 1924Z 278DEG 24KT 3308 9159

CME

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
254 PM CDT Sun Jul 18 2021

MSZ025-027-035-036-182045-
Carroll MS-Humphreys MS-Leflore MS-Holmes MS-
254 PM CDT Sun Jul 18 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN HOLMES...WESTERN
CARROLL...LEFLORE AND NORTHEASTERN HUMPHREYS COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM
CDT...

At 253 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
over Itta Bena, moving east at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Greenwood and Sidon around 305 PM CDT.
  Teoc around 320 PM CDT.
  Malmaison around 325 PM CDT.
  Coila around 330 PM CDT.
  North Carrollton around 335 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Morgan City, Cruger
and Carrollton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3322 9047 3368 9033 3367 8986 3314 8995
TIME...MOT...LOC 1953Z 269DEG 29KT 3349 9029

CME

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
322 PM CDT Sun Jul 18 2021

LAZ007>009-MSZ040-182100-
Morehouse LA-East Carroll LA-West Carroll LA-Issaquena MS-
322 PM CDT Sun Jul 18 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL MOREHOUSE...EAST
CARROLL...WEST CARROLL PARISHES IN NORTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND
NORTHWESTERN ISSAQUENA COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM CDT...

At 322 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
over Goodwill, or 18 miles south of Wilmot, moving east at 40 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Oak Grove and Darnell around 335 PM CDT.
  Lake Providence around 350 PM CDT.
  Transylvania around 355 PM CDT.
  Alsatia and Fitler around 400 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Mayersville, Forest,
Pioneer and Epps.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3290 9158 3291 9095 3264 9099 3256 9108
      3256 9111 3254 9113 3259 9152 3262 9160
      3267 9160 3267 9164 3264 9165 3267 9173
TIME...MOT...LOC 2022Z 287DEG 33KT 3280 9154

CME

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
413 PM CDT Sun Jul 18 2021

MSZ028-029-032-182200-
Montgomery MS-Choctaw MS-Webster MS-
413 PM CDT Sun Jul 18 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN CHOCTAW...
SOUTHWESTERN WEBSTER AND MONTGOMERY COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM CDT...

At 413 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
near Winona, moving east at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Kilmichael and Sweatman around 425 PM CDT.
  Lodi around 435 PM CDT.
  Embry around 455 PM CDT.
  Bellefontaine around 500 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3368 8930 3336 8929 3335 8945 3340 8963
      3340 8971 3342 8972 3342 8975 3368 8972
TIME...MOT...LOC 2113Z 264DEG 23KT 3352 8967

CME

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
447 PM CDT Sun Jul 18 2021

MSZ043-044-182230-
Leake MS-Madison MS-
447 PM CDT Sun Jul 18 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WESTERN LEAKE AND NORTHEASTERN
MADISON COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM CDT...

At 447 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
over Cameron, or 16 miles northeast of Canton, moving east at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Camden around 500 PM CDT.
  Thomastown around 515 PM CDT.
  Carthage around 530 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Redwater.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3260 8953 3272 9003 3288 8995 3288 8984
      3289 8973 3288 8950
TIME...MOT...LOC 2147Z 288DEG 25KT 3283 8991

CME