Alert archive / Mississippi / Special Weather Statements in 2021
Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS
NWS Jackson, MS issued this special weather statement at Jul 17, 2021, 3:46 PM CDT for Lawrence County, Mississippi. It was in force for 44 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 17, 2021, 3:46 PM CDT (20:46 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 17, 2021, 4:30 PM CDT
- In force
- 44 min
- Issued by
- NWS Jackson, MS
County Lawrence County, MS
The radar
The Jackson/Brandon,MS radar (KDGX), 61 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:47 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Jackson, MS (KJAN), launched 12:00Z, 8.8 hours before the alert went out and 64 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 528 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -51 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 853 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 9 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 60 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 90 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
<meta charset="utf-8">
<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
<title>Service Notice</title>
<link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
<main class="wrap">
<section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
<div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
<h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
<p id="message1">
The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
</p>
<p id="message2">
Please try again in a few minutes.
</p>
<p class="small" id="detail">
If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
</p>
</section>
</main>
<script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, MS wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Jul 17, 3:42 PM CDT, 4 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 17, 3:42 PM CDT, 4 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 342 PM CDT Sat Jul 17 2021 .DISCUSSION... Through tomorrow... Another active day of convection across the forecast area today. Thankfully, most of this activity is progressive enough to preclude much in the way of flash flooding and all of it has stay below severe limits thus far. Expect that this activity will continue to push south and/or dissipate through the rest of the afternoon into this evening. There could be some activity lingering in the Delta through the night but the bulk of the next round of precip should hold off until early tomorrow morning around daybreak, with most of the region seeing some kind of break through the night. The upper trough axis and favorable position of the upper jet remains across our region, which is helping provide lift to generate these storms this weekend. Ample moisture is present throughout the atmosphere, with precipitable water values around and exceeding 2 inches. Similar conditions should be present later tonight into early tomorrow, especially in the Delta, where models continue to indicate the best potential for flash flooding/heavy rain/training storms. 15-20kts of 850mb flow out of the west will feed 340-345K theta-e air into that region. Combined with light to calm Corfidi vectors, this would suggest another round of potential heavy rain/slow storms. As a result of the 3-6 inches of rain that fell already this morning, the soils are primed for flooding. Because of this, we have gone ahead with issuing a limited risk for flooding for portions of the northwest part of the forecast area, in coordination with WPC. Additional amounts of 2-4 inches look possible yet again in some of these storms. Hi-res guidance also supports this notion with convection probably holding off until around daybreak, give or take a couple of hours, and continuing through the morning. After this time, convection should start to move south yet again during the afternoon hours. Expect that conditions should be similar in terms of severe weather potential with some strong storms but low chance for severe weather. Given the continued increase in convective coverage and cloud cover, temperatures will be on the cooler side yet again. Highs tomorrow should be in the lower to perhaps mid 80s. Overnight lows will be muggy in the 70s and some 60s tonight. /28/ Sunday Night through Next Week... The long-term forecast will consist of rain and storm chances each day but at the very start of the period, heavier rain fall and possible flash flooding could be possible. CAM guidance hint at a decaying MCV Sunday night sagging south/south-east(somewhere along I- 20)across central MS dumping rain across these areas. During nighttime hours, there is better forward propagation so less training is to be expected Sunday night and rainfall amounts aren't expected to accumulate in a short amount of time however, as we get into early Monday morning-the afternoon, things will begin to pick back up. By early Monday possibly between 4-7AM, another MCV looks to redevelop along parts of the southern half of the MS Delta. More than likely we'll remain in this NW flow regime and if winds at the 850mb level can get up to atleast about 15kts along with good flow within the low-level jet, this will create opportunity for some training which could result in high rainfall accumulations in a short amount of time. Monday morning could be very similar ordeal to what occurred this morning across the Delta, only thing is parts of the south(not just the MS Delta)could see some of this anticipated convective rainfall. As of now, will hold off any mention in the HWO for flash flooding on Monday. Will wait until more model runs and updated CAM guidance to make a final assessment. As far as the rest of the long-term period, deep-longwave troughing across Deep south will remain dominant. A cold front associated with this trough will help increase any diurnal storm potential and rain chances through the early parts of next week. Showalters indicate some negative values Monday and Tuesday so storms forming out ahead of this boundary could have some embedded lightning and thunder in them and a few may even become briefly strong. Shear values along with other key components for severe weather are under threshold values so any severe potential at this time is low. Rain chances and better coverage will increase each day through the period until the trough begins to slide east sometime early next Thursday then a ridge will begin to build in from the west. Temperatures this weekend will be in 80s for most places. By the time Monday rolls around and the previous mention front begins to sag south, temperatures will be a few degrees cooler(mid 80s) especially with the better rain coverage expected. clouds will limit any temps in the 90s. However by the end of the forecast period temps will begin to climb back into the upper 80s to near at at 90 degrees for some areas across the west./JNE/ && .AVIATION... 18Z TAF discussion: Convection this afternoon has plagued sites and dropped categories to MVFR. However, once storms pass VFR conditions return. These storms will continue through the afternoon into the evening hours before dissipating. However, sites should expect MVFR ceilings overnight with another round of storms possible before daybreak tomorrow, especially in the Delta. /28/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 72 84 72 84 / 47 86 68 90 Meridian 71 84 71 84 / 46 87 66 91 Vicksburg 73 86 73 86 / 47 82 66 89 Hattiesburg 72 86 73 86 / 26 85 47 93 Natchez 73 87 72 84 / 30 77 50 92 Greenville 73 84 71 87 / 65 85 67 76 Greenwood 72 83 71 87 / 66 89 67 76 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && JNE/28
Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 17, 3:29 PM CDT, 17 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Jackson MS 329 PM CDT Sat Jul 17 2021 ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-MSZ018-019-025>028-034>037-040>042- 182030- Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland- Bolivar-Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Washington- Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo- 329 PM CDT Sat Jul 17 2021 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, north central Mississippi, northwest Mississippi, and west central Mississippi. .DAY ONE...Tonight and Sunday FLOODING THREAT...Limited TIMING...Sunday morning into early afternoon Additional showers and thunderstorms will affect the region early Sunday morning. These storms will bring locally heavy rainfall and may move over the same areas through the morning hours. This will bring potential for flash flooding given the recent rainfall that has created saturated grounds. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png) .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday night through Friday The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and emergency management personnel in support of severe weather operations is not expected through next Friday. LAZ016-023>026-MSZ029>033-038-039-043>066-072>074-182030- Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Webster-Clay- Lowndes-Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Winston-Noxubee-Madison MS-Leake- Neshoba-Kemper-Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale- Claiborne-Copiah-Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Jefferson-Adams- Franklin MS-Lincoln-Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones- Marion-Lamar-Forrest- 329 PM CDT Sat Jul 17 2021 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, north central Mississippi, northeast Mississippi, and south central Mississippi. .DAY ONE...Tonight and Sunday The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday night through Friday The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and emergency management personnel in support of severe weather operations is not expected through next Friday. 28 && ...HAZARD LEGEND... *FLOODING* Extreme...Confident in significant flooding. Significant...Significant flooding possible. Elevated...Confident in flooding. Limited...Flooding possible. ...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)... NWS JAN Home page... https://www.weather.gov/jan Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page... https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe Latest Weather Briefing... https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing Tropical page... https://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical?office=jan National Hurricane Center Home Page... https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ Find NWS JAN on Facebook... https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS Follow NWS JAN on Twitter... @NWSJacksonMS Follow NWS JAN on Youtube... https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss ...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR FLOODING ISSUES... Current Watches and Warnings... https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe_HeavyRain Observed Precipitation Images... https://www.weather.gov/jan/precipmaps River Forecast Center... https://www.weather.gov/lmrfc/ Significant River Flood Outlook... https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html Day 1 through 3 Excessive Rainfall... https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml Excessive Rainfall Discussion... https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpferd.html Day 1 through 7 QPF... https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml QPF Discussion... https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpfpfd.html
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Jul 17, 11:41 AM CDT, 4 hours 5 minutes before
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Jackson MS 1141 AM CDT Sat Jul 17 2021 MSZ045-050-051-171715- Scott MS-Newton MS-Neshoba MS- 1141 AM CDT Sat Jul 17 2021 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NEWTON...EAST CENTRAL SCOTT AND SOUTHWESTERN NESHOBA COUNTIES UNTIL 1215 PM CDT... At 1141 AM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm near Conehatta, or near Prospect, moving east at 15 mph. Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm. This strong thunderstorm will be near... Stratton around 1155 AM CDT. Decatur around 1205 PM CDT. Newton and Little Rock around 1215 PM CDT. Other locations impacted by this storm include Chunky and Hickory. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees. && LAT...LON 3226 8892 3239 8941 3269 8925 3257 8891 TIME...MOT...LOC 1641Z 291DEG 13KT 3248 8921 JNE
Special weather statement, Jul 17, 12:17 PM CDT, 3 hours 29 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1217 PM CDT Sat Jul 17 2021
MSZ043>046-048>052-055>058-171800-
Newton MS-Neshoba MS-Hinds MS-Leake MS-Rankin MS-Clarke MS-Kemper MS-
Smith MS-Scott MS-Lauderdale MS-Madison MS-Simpson MS-Jasper MS-
1217 PM CDT Sat Jul 17 2021
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN LEAKE...RANKIN...
NEWTON...SMITH...SOUTHWESTERN KEMPER...SCOTT...SOUTHERN NESHOBA...
SOUTHEASTERN MADISON...JASPER...NORTHEASTERN SIMPSON...NORTHWESTERN
CLARKE...CENTRAL HINDS AND LAUDERDALE COUNTIES UNTIL 100 PM CDT...
At 1217 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking strong thunderstorms
along a line extending from near Bethsaida to near Florence. Movement
was southeast at 20 mph.
Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.
Strong thunderstorms will be near...
Philadelphia and Neshoba around 1220 PM CDT.
Bethsaida around 1230 PM CDT.
House around 1240 PM CDT.
Herbert Springs around 1255 PM CDT.
Damascus, Cato, Martin and Johns around 100 PM CDT.
Other locations impacted by these storms include Tucker, Walnut
Grove, Sebastopol, Standing Pine, Puckett, Lena, Chunky, Lake,
Montrose and Sylvarena.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.
&&
LAT...LON 3197 8885 3196 8967 3237 9057 3280 8907
3259 8841
TIME...MOT...LOC 1717Z 297DEG 17KT 3271 8910 3219 9017
JNESpecial weather statement, Jul 17, 1:17 PM CDT, 2 hours 29 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
117 PM CDT Sat Jul 17 2021
MSZ051-052-057-058-171900-
Lauderdale MS-Newton MS-Jasper MS-Clarke MS-
117 PM CDT Sat Jul 17 2021
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN JASPER...
SOUTHEASTERN NEWTON...NORTHWESTERN CLARKE AND SOUTHWESTERN LAUDERDALE
COUNTIES UNTIL 200 PM CDT...
At 116 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
near Rose Hill, or 15 miles southeast of Newton, moving east at 20
mph.
Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.
This strong thunderstorm will be near...
Orange around 120 PM CDT.
Stonewall and Savoy around 140 PM CDT.
Sable around 155 PM CDT.
Other locations impacted by this storm include Pachuta.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 3199 8871 3203 8909 3229 8897 3237 8884
3238 8855
TIME...MOT...LOC 1816Z 276DEG 19KT 3219 8894
CMESpecial weather statement, Jul 17, 2:42 PM CDT, 1 hour 4 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
242 PM CDT Sat Jul 17 2021
MSZ048-054-172015-
Copiah MS-Hinds MS-
242 PM CDT Sat Jul 17 2021
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN HINDS AND
NORTHWESTERN COPIAH COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM CDT...
At 242 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
over Utica, or 19 miles northwest of Crystal Springs, moving
southeast at 20 mph.
Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.
This strong thunderstorm will be near...
Utica and Carpenter around 250 PM CDT.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 3193 9067 3211 9072 3213 9073 3222 9060
3209 9040
TIME...MOT...LOC 1942Z 312DEG 16KT 3213 9064
CMESpecial weather statement, Jul 17, 3:21 PM CDT, 25 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
321 PM CDT Sat Jul 17 2021
MSZ054-172045-
Copiah MS-
321 PM CDT Sat Jul 17 2021
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN COPIAH COUNTY UNTIL
345 PM CDT...
At 321 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
near Barlow, or 10 miles west of Hazlehurst, moving southeast at 15
mph.
Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.
This strong thunderstorm will be near...
Hazlehurst and Glancy around 340 PM CDT.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 3188 9071 3197 9056 3187 9037 3176 9047
3171 9070
TIME...MOT...LOC 2021Z 314DEG 15KT 3186 9058
CMESpecial weather statement, Jul 17, 3:46 PM CDT, 0 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
346 PM CDT Sat Jul 17 2021
MSZ054-062-063-172130-
Lawrence MS-Copiah MS-Lincoln MS-
346 PM CDT Sat Jul 17 2021
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN LINCOLN...NORTHERN
LAWRENCE AND SOUTHEASTERN COPIAH COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM CDT...
At 345 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
near Rockport, or 9 miles southeast of Hazlehurst, moving southeast
at 15 mph.
Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.
This strong thunderstorm will be near...
Rockport around 400 PM CDT.
Oma around 410 PM CDT.
Sontag around 415 PM CDT.
Other locations impacted by this storm include Beauregard.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning may occur with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 3159 9034 3173 9043 3188 9025 3181 9014
3180 9015 3179 9014 3179 9011 3177 9011
3177 9012 3178 9012 3177 9013 3175 9012
3176 9006 3171 8999
TIME...MOT...LOC 2045Z 314DEG 15KT 3177 9027
CMEThe office that day
Everything else NWS Jackson, MS issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 17, 11:23 AM CDT | Special Weather Statement | JAN | Madison | 52 min |
| Jul 17, 11:41 AM CDT | Special Weather Statement | JAN | Newton | 34 min |
| Jul 17, 12:17 PM CDT | Special Weather Statement | JAN | Jasper, Lauderdale, Neshoba, Newton, Rankin, Scott and 1 more | 43 min |
| Jul 17, 1:17 PM CDT | Special Weather Statement | JAN | Clarke | 43 min |
| Jul 17, 2:42 PM CDT | Special Weather Statement | JAN | Hinds | 33 min |
| Jul 17, 3:21 PM CDT | Special Weather Statement | JAN | Copiah | 24 min |
| Jul 17, 4:31 PM CDT | Special Weather Statement | JAN | Simpson | 14 min |
| Jul 16, 9:01 PM CDT | Special Weather Statement | JAN | Morehouse | 44 min |
| Jul 16, 9:24 PM CDT | Special Weather Statement | JAN | Morehouse | 51 min |
| Jul 16, 10:14 PM CDT | Special Weather Statement | JAN | Morehouse, Richland, West Carroll | 46 min |
Nearby
Special Weather Statements in Mississippi, 2021Every special weather statement in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.