Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
615 PM CDT Mon Jul 12 2021

.UPDATE...
Updated for 00Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF discussion:
Convection is isolated this evening and all TAF sites are seeing
VFR conditions. There remains a chance for a shower or storm to
affect a site, and if so, then conditions may briefly drop to MVFR
before returning. There remains another chance for overnight
showers and this is reflected some in the forecast but confidence
is not as high right now for this round tonight. If there is no
convection overnight then additional storms may occur in the east
tomorrow, which would affect KMEI/KHBG/KPIB mostly. Some low
stratus overnight into early tomorrow morning may result in some
MVFR ceilings at a few sites. /28/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Tuesday: The morning/early afternoon convective complex
has now pushed east of the area into AL. The stable conditions in
its wake have resulted in a bit of a lull in activity this
afternoon. Areas of north MS/southeast AR that were less impacted
by this morning's activity (and where dewpoints are running a tad
higher) have begun to see isolated SHRA development along
convergent bands pivoting around the Mid-MS Valley low. Farther
south, a good deal of clearing has occurred west of I-55, but
dewpoints are running a touch lower and there is less of a
cumulus field hinting at redevelopment in the near term. We may
see coverage fill in a little more due to pure diurnal/instability
forcing later this afternoon but not expecting significant
coverage through the early evening.

As for what's to come, guidance remains inconsistent and unreliable
in the near/short term. Looking upstream at WV imagery and regional
radar imagery, another impulse is situated over east Texas. If the
atmosphere can recover enough over our area through the remainder
of the afternoon, this could become our next wave of showers and
thunderstorms, which once again might arrive late night/early
morning. NBM and MAV/ECM PoPs remain pretty high for the tonight
period, as were the PoPs inherited from previous forecasts. Given
this, and a persistence approach with our recent pattern of waves
of rain every several hours, will stay the course with higher PoPs
for late tonight and allow the evening shift to monitor trends
over the next several hours. For tomorrow, even as the upper
trough finally begins to pull away from the area, the remnants of
the old frontal boundary and considerable moisture will linger
across the region, resulting in 'good chance' to 'likely' PoPs
through the daytime period. Early day precip or cloud debris may
again cut into high temps over some portion of the area, but any
areas that can remain mostly dry could reach the lower 90s. /DL/

Wednesday through Tuesday:

The flow across the CONUS will be more zonal and progressive for the
back half of this work week as the two ridges of high pressure (over
Desert Southwest and East Coast) flatten. With southerly flow
continuing around the East Coast ridge, PWAT values will remain
around normal for mid-July (about 1.8 inches). Any shortwaves
rippling around the ridge could enhance the diurnal shower and
thunderstorm chances, but by and large expect a generally summerlike
pattern with sea breezes initiating activity in the south and
heating bubbling up scattered convection elsewhere. Over the weekend
and into early next week , models generally agree in an
amplification of the pattern once again - the western ridge looks to
strengthen over the Rockies while a trough of low pressure deepens
and extends from New England back through the Deep South. The
dreaded return of this trough pattern will steer another front
toward our region by Monday or Tuesday, increasing the chances for
more persistent and (at times) heavy rainfall. It's too early to
nail down specific impacts, but the region has been fairly wet
recently, and another round of heavy rain would make flash
flooding easier for parts of the area. /NF/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       71  88  71  91 /  68  63  24  24
Meridian      69  88  69  90 /  63  73  24  33
Vicksburg     72  89  73  91 /  65  49  21  23
Hattiesburg   72  90  71  90 /  34  69  16  40
Natchez       71  88  71  90 /  60  47  21  27
Greenville    70  89  71  92 /  41  34  14  16
Greenwood     70  89  71  93 /  57  44  16  18

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
220 PM CDT Mon Jul 12 2021

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
131930-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Bolivar-
Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-
Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Winston-
Noxubee-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-
Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Claiborne-Copiah-
Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln-
Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
220 PM CDT Mon Jul 12 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, and central and south Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Tuesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday night through Sunday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Sunday.

DL

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

No short term hazards expected.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
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Latest Weather Briefing...
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   https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
743 PM CDT Mon Jul 12 2021

LAZ016-025-MSZ047-053-130130-
Tensas LA-Madison LA-Warren MS-Claiborne MS-
743 PM CDT Mon Jul 12 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN TENSAS AND
SOUTHEASTERN MADISON PARISHES...SOUTHWESTERN WARREN AND CENTRAL
CLAIBORNE COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM CDT...

At 743 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
over Newellton, or 24 miles south of Tallulah, moving northeast at 25
mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Vicksburg, Yokena and Le Tourneau around 830 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Mound and Delta.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3244 9097 3242 9096 3245 9095 3245 9093
      3212 9072 3187 9112 3187 9121 3216 9142
TIME...MOT...LOC 0043Z 236DEG 20KT 3205 9121

JNE