Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1106 AM CDT Fri Jul 2 2021

.UPDATE...
Updated for morning discussion.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Very moist air with precipitable water > 2.2 inches is
converging ahead of the cold front as anticipated with primary
convective focus along the I-20 corridor in zone of cyclonic
vorticity advection. Low to mid level flow of 10 to 20kt combined
with ML CAPE of up to 1500 j/kg is supporting a few strong storms
with gusty winds and intense rainfall rates. Progressive nature
of storms is helping to limit absolute rainfall, but intense
rates will still cause significant runoff in urban areas. Overall,
the forecast thinking in the near term is on track with earlier
timing helping to limit low level destabilization. The storm
threat will diminish as zone of CVA shifts south of the area late
today. /EC/

Prior discussion below:

Today and tonight...
A cold front is settling into the region today...enhancing the
typical summer diurnal showers and thunderstorms expected across the
region. The upper level trough associated with this boundary is
digging in over the eastern half of the country...but the surface
representation of the front is lacking and weak this morning. Not
particularly cool or dry on the northern side of the front, the
boundary has slowed this morning, stalling more or less to the
north.  Guidance continues to progress the boundary to the south
throughout the day, with the northerly winds making it down to near
I-20 by 00Z.  Definitely a lack of strong surface convergence along
the front, and a noticeable lack of steep mid level lapse
rates...think that the thunderstorms will be relatively hard to
organize for any threat beyond the typical gusty summertime storms.
A couple of caveats to that statement would include mesoscale
concerns...and potential for flash flooding.  However, the models
persist in progressively dropping the boundary south of I-20 later
this afternoon/evening, and the biggest chances for heavier rainfall
will be the intersection of the heat of day and the weak front. The
diurnal influence will be diminished slightly from any previous
convection...but the ample moisture in the airmass could present
some brief heavy rains.  That being said... the QPF being generated
is still well within FFG across the area.  Will keep from a flooding
graphic at this point, expect that to change if that boundary gets
hung up across the area.

Saturday through next Friday...
A front will push through the region Friday and once the front
clears, drier air will filter in dropping dewpoints from the 70s
into the upper 50s to mid 60s. This will help keep much of area
north of the Highway 84 corridor dry Saturday but lingering rain
chances will be possible for areas along and south of there due to
the previous mentioned front stalling across the most southern
portions of the MS. Sunday will mimic Saturday keeping most of the
area across the north rain free while rain chances will stick
around for areas across the far south. A strong ridge across the
western half of the CONUS will help increase humidity values
sending temperatures back into the 90s for much of the area Sunday
through much of next week.

By the next working week, troughing will come back into play and the
summertime pattern of daily afternoon showers and storms can be
expected through the rest of the extended forecast. Tropical Storm
Elsa continues to slowly gain strength tracking near the Lesser
Antilles however, no impacts are expected across the ArkLaMiss at

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF discussion:
VFR in the immediate term... save a quick TSRA for JAN and some
vcsh for other central MS terminals. A quick broken line of
showers moving through the region ahead of a frontal boundary
expected to settle through the state today. Timing of the boundary
is still a bit sketchy as the front has temporarily stalled
somewhat to the north. Have delayed some of the TS timing in the
TAFs as well as trying to keep the forecast on the more optimistic
side of guidance. Concern however in the extended where the llvl
moisture and weakened boundary makes it invof PIB/HBG later this
evening and the moisture does not have a chance to scour out. Have
introduced IFR cigs later tonight as a result.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       86  69  88  65 /  86  35   9   3
Meridian      83  68  88  63 /  86  32   8   2
Vicksburg     87  70  88  65 /  82  39   8   4
Hattiesburg   86  71  89  68 /  82  62  38   9
Natchez       85  71  88  67 /  76  62  22   7
Greenville    85  65  85  63 /  61  10   2   1
Greenwood     86  64  87  63 /  61  10   2   1

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
419 AM CDT Fri Jul 2 2021

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
030930-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Bolivar-
Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-
Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Winston-
Noxubee-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-
Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Claiborne-Copiah-
Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln-
Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
419 AM CDT Fri Jul 2 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, north central
Mississippi, and south central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Thursday.

14

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

No short term hazards expected.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Tropical page...
   https://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical?office=jan
National Hurricane Center Home Page...
   https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1031 AM CDT Fri Jul 2 2021

MSZ043-048-049-021615-
Hinds MS-Rankin MS-Madison MS-
1031 AM CDT Fri Jul 2 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL RANKIN...NORTHEASTERN
HINDS AND SOUTH CENTRAL MADISON COUNTIES UNTIL 1115 AM CDT...

At 1031 AM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
over Jackson, moving southeast at 35 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Pearl, Flowood and Richland around 1040 AM CDT.
  Brandon and Monterey around 1050 AM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3229 9039 3252 9027 3246 8989 3235 8975
      3208 8989
TIME...MOT...LOC 1531Z 295DEG 32KT 3233 9019

DC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1103 AM CDT FRI JUL 2 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1055 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 SSW JACKSON           32.29N 90.19W
07/02/2021                   HINDS              MS   BROADCAST MEDIA

            SEVERAL STREETS FLOODED AND IMPASSABLE.

&&

AJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1115 AM CDT Fri Jul 2 2021

MSZ049-021645-
Rankin MS-
1115 AM CDT Fri Jul 2 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN RANKIN COUNTY UNTIL
1145 AM CDT...

At 1114 AM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
near Brandon, moving southeast at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Cato around 1130 AM CDT.
  Johns around 1135 AM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Puckett.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3205 8981 3218 9010 3238 8998 3229 8973
      3205 8973
TIME...MOT...LOC 1614Z 295DEG 22KT 3224 8994

DC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1218 PM CDT Fri Jul 2 2021

MSZ056-021745-
Smith MS-
1218 PM CDT Fri Jul 2 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL AFFECT
CENTRAL SMITH COUNTY UNTIL 1245 PM CDT...

At 1217 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles southeast of Raleigh, or 10 miles northwest of Stringer, moving
southeast at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of central Smith
County, including the following locations... Sylvarena.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3181 8932 3198 8965 3205 8966 3213 8961
      3205 8932
TIME...MOT...LOC 1717Z 298DEG 21KT 3195 8942

DC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1241 PM CDT Fri Jul 2 2021

MSZ043-049-050-021815-
Scott MS-Rankin MS-Madison MS-
1241 PM CDT Fri Jul 2 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL AFFECT
NORTHEASTERN RANKIN... NORTHWESTERN SCOTT AND SOUTHEASTERN MADISON
COUNTIES UNTIL 115 PM CDT...

At 1240 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
over Canton, moving east at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Farmhaven around 110 PM CDT.
  Ludlow around 115 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3247 8974 3252 9014 3265 9006 3265 8973
      3258 8973 3258 8969
TIME...MOT...LOC 1740Z 285DEG 21KT 3261 9003

DC