Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
236 PM CDT Mon Jun 21 2021

.DISCUSSION...
Through Tuesday: This afternoon, there were two different
convective regimes ongoing - one bringing scattered showers to
South MS and Southeast LA in association with a shortwave along
the northern Gulf Coast and another bringing showers and
thunderstorms from North LA through AR into North MS ahead of an
approaching cold front. A bit of a lull exists in between along
the I-20 corridor at this time. Through this evening, storms along
and ahead of the cold front will build southward bringing and end
to this lull. There remains some potential for isolated severe
storms, given the moderate to strong mixed layer instability in
place across much of the area and in spite of relatively weak deep
layer shear. However, with the loss of diurnal heating, the
severe threat will likely taper off by mid-evening. Rainfall may
be heavy at times as well given >2" PW, which could lead to
localized flooding - particularly in those areas which have
recently dealt with flooding issues.

The front and associated showers and isolated thunderstorms will
continue across the area through the overnight. We may see a bit
of a lull in precip tomorrow morning then redevelopment of
showers and thunderstorms by late morning/midday near the front
from south MS into central LA with the return of daytime heating.
A drier and slightly cooler airmass will advect in behind the
front, resulting in dry weather for much of the northern and
central half of the area on Tuesday. Between the cooler air behind
the front and clouds/rain farther south, temps will run as much
as 10 degrees below normal. /DL/

Tuesday night through Sunday: Come Tuesday evening a weak cold
front will be drifting across our southeastern most zones. Model
consensus move this cold front farther south before stalling it
and is drier for Wednesday night as the last of the rain is
expected to end before midnight. In the wake of the cold front
temperatures will be cooler than normal with lower 60s for
Wednesday morning lows in the north to upper 60s in the south.
Wednesday wl still have broad upper level troughing overhead as a
surface high becomes centered over the mid Atlantic seaboard. This
surface high will ridge back to the southwest across our region
resulting in an east to southeast low level flow across our CWA.
This will allow the stalled front to drift back to the north a
little during the day and become the focus for convection which
may spread as far north as Interstate 20 by late afternoon.
Thursday mid level ridging will begin strengthening back over our
region from the west while our low level flow becomes more
southerly. This will allow for moisture to return to our CWA along
with warmer temperatures. A greater coverage of diurnal
convection is expected Thursday. Friday the mid level ridge from
the west will be stronger while we maintain surface ridging from
the east. Together these features will result in more isolated
coverage of afternoon and early evening convection. Wl see little
change Saturday but an upper level trough will be dropping over
the Central Plains trying to make a dent in the mid level ridging
across the southern states. This upper level trough will also help
support a cold front that the models still try to nudge into our
northwest Sunday. This cold front may stall across our delta
region Sunday where the highest pops look to be carried Sunday
into Monday. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF discussion:
VFR conditions prevail across much of the area, with patchy MVFR
ceilings and scattered SHRA/TS. Through this evening, coverage of
rain and storms will increase ahead of an approaching front. A few
wind gusts to 50 kt are possible in isolated severe storms. The
front will push across the area overnight into Tues morning,
bringing a wind shift from SW to NW. Along with temporary visby
reductions in periods of heavy rain, ceilings are expected to fall
to the IFR/MVFR range overnight into Tues morning, gradually
improving from the north during the day. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       70  80  67  88 /  92  49   5  26
Meridian      69  80  65  87 /  86  62   6  29
Vicksburg     69  81  67  90 /  93  36   5  23
Hattiesburg   71  83  70  87 /  83  83  47  54
Natchez       70  80  69  89 /  88  58  12  35
Greenville    66  80  62  86 /  95   4   1   7
Greenwood     65  81  62  88 /  95   8   1   9

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

DL/22

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
205 PM CDT Mon Jun 21 2021

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>045-047>050-
053-059-060-221915-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Bolivar-
Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-
Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Winston-
Noxubee-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Warren-
Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Claiborne-Jefferson-Adams-
205 PM CDT Mon Jun 21 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, and northern portions of central
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Tuesday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...2 PM to 10 PM

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Through Tonight

Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts are
possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Localized flash flooding is possible this afternoon and evening,
particularly in low lying and urban areas. Rainfall totals between
one to three inches are expected, with locally higher amounts
possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday night through Sunday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region tonight.

MSZ046-051-052-054>058-061-221915-
Kemper-Newton-Lauderdale-Copiah-Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-
Franklin MS-
205 PM CDT Mon Jun 21 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
and eastern Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Tuesday

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Through Tonight

Localized flash flooding is possible this afternoon and evening,
particularly in low lying and urban areas. Rainfall totals between
one to three inches are expected, with locally higher amounts
possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday night through Sunday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Sunday.

MSZ062>066-072>074-221915-
Lincoln-Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-
Forrest-
205 PM CDT Mon Jun 21 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
and southeast Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Tuesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday night through Sunday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Sunday.

DL

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
High...Significant severe thunderstorms are expected.
Moderate...Severe storms expected with significant
 severe weather possible.
Enhanced...Severe storms expected.
Slight...Severe storms possible.
Marginal...Isolated severe storms possible.

*FLOODING*
Extreme...Confident in significant flooding.
Significant...Significant flooding possible.
Elevated...Confident in flooding.
Limited...Flooding possible.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Tropical page...
   https://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical?office=jan
National Hurricane Center Home Page...
   https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/
Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Storm Reports...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/
...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR FLOODING ISSUES...

Current Watches and Warnings...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe_HeavyRain

Observed Precipitation Images...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/precipmaps

River Forecast Center...
   https://www.weather.gov/lmrfc/
Significant River Flood Outlook...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html
Day 1 through 3 Excessive Rainfall...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml
Excessive Rainfall Discussion...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpferd.html
Day 1 through 7 QPF...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml
QPF Discussion...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpfpfd.html

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
311 PM CDT Mon Jun 21 2021

ARZ074-LAZ007-212100-
Ashley AR-Morehouse LA-
311 PM CDT Mon Jun 21 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN ASHLEY COUNTY IN
SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHWESTERN MOREHOUSE PARISHES UNTIL 400
PM CDT...

At 311 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles southeast of Huttig, moving east at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Beekman around 330 PM CDT.
  Berlin around 350 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3312 9212 3314 9212 3326 9198 3326 9173
      3280 9173 3279 9206 3282 9207 3284 9206
      3287 9208 3293 9207 3297 9208 3301 9207
      3303 9209 3303 9211 3307 9211 3307 9213
      3310 9214
TIME...MOT...LOC 2011Z 268DEG 23KT 3299 9204

TW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
400 PM CDT Mon Jun 21 2021

MSZ057-058-212145-
Jasper MS-Clarke MS-
400 PM CDT Mon Jun 21 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN JASPER AND
NORTHWESTERN CLARKE COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM CDT...

At 400 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
over Orange, or 13 miles west of Quitman, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Orange around 405 PM CDT.
  Stonewall around 430 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Pachuta.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3192 8895 3213 8911 3223 8894 3223 8877
      3208 8865
TIME...MOT...LOC 2100Z 238DEG 18KT 3208 8896

TW

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
438 PM CDT Mon Jun 21 2021

MSZ049-054-055-212230-
Copiah MS-Rankin MS-Simpson MS-
438 PM CDT Mon Jun 21 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL RANKIN...
NORTHWESTERN SIMPSON AND NORTHEASTERN COPIAH COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM
CDT...

At 438 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
over Hopewell, or 7 miles east of Crystal Springs, moving east at 25
mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Harrisville around 500 PM CDT.
  Star around 510 PM CDT.
  Piney Woods around 515 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Braxton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3202 9032 3205 9025 3205 9023 3206 9023
      3216 8999 3197 8990 3188 9022
TIME...MOT...LOC 2138Z 248DEG 23KT 3197 9023

TW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
442 PM CDT Mon Jun 21 2021

MSZ019-034-212230-
Washington MS-Sunflower MS-
442 PM CDT Mon Jun 21 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN SUNFLOWER AND
NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM CDT...

At 442 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
near Leland, moving east at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Tribbett around 455 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Arcola.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3343 9062 3327 9061 3327 9072 3326 9073
      3325 9073 3324 9096 3343 9096
TIME...MOT...LOC 2142Z 271DEG 21KT 3333 9089

TW