Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
426 PM CDT Sun Jun 13 2021

.DISCUSSION...

Through Tonight:

In the near-term, focus remains several ongoing clusters of strong
to severe thunderstorms moving south across our forecast area. Early
afternoon temperature and moisture profiles indicated around 5000
J/kg of MUCAPE and 1400 J/kg of DCAPE in place over the region,
and storms so far this afternoon have responded accordingly.
Quickly growing pulse storms with the potential for microbursts
and some hail will continue into the early evening as these storms
coalesce along developing cold pools and race southward. With the
loss of daytime heating, the severe threat should quickly
diminish this evening. Another warm, humid night is on tap as
there has really not been any air mass replacement today. This may
also lead to some patches of fog where today's rain has left
humidity too high to mix out before sunset. /NF/

Monday through Sunday:

For the rest of the week and into next weekend, there haven't been
many changes in forecast reasoning. Starting off the new work week,
the flow aloft will become northerly as a stout ridge over the
Rockies amplifies and tilts eastward. A sequence of shortwave
troughs rounding the ridge axis and diving south will reinforce a
generally drier pattern, while at the surface a weak "cold" front
arriving Tuesday into Wednesday will be marked by lower dew points
and higher surface pressure. POPs will be focused along the Gulf
Coast in the first half of the week, trending to below mentionable
values on Thursday. Guidance remains in fairly decent agreement with
this overall pattern, and a consensus blend of forecast elements
looked reasonable. Before the front arrives, daytime max temps in
into the mid-90s can be expected on Monday and Tuesday. Combined
with lingering humidity, dangerous heat conditions are possible
mainly south of I-20 on Monday and could develop again in far
southern parts of the area on Tuesday. Will introduce a mention of
"Elevated" heat stress conditions in the Hazardous Weather Outlook
text and graphics for tomorrow, and evaluate the need for a possible
Heat Advisory with the next forecast issuance. For the back half of
the work week, the upper-level flow looks to break down some as the
axis continues to shear and tilt to the east and a deeper trough
dives into the Upper Midwest region.

While all this is going on in the westerlies, a broad area of
showers and storms over the Bay of Campeche in the southwestern Gulf
of Mexico should continue to wobble in that vicinity for a few days
before slowly advancing northward and possibly organizing into a
Tropical Depression. NHC currently gives the area of storms around a
50 percent chance for Tropical Depression development during the
next 5 days. These broad systems are hard to predict in fine detail,
but the environment will generally support some organization over
the next few days. That potential will have to be monitored, but it
is still too early to pin down any potential impacts around the
central Gulf Coast region. Have continued to trend the chances for
rain (possibly heavy) and stronger winds slightly higher closer to
the Gulf Coast next weekend. Stay tuned for updates throughout the
week, especially if traveling along the Gulf Coast late this week
and early next week. /NF/

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF discussion:
Although VFR conditions will prevail through the period, isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon
and linger into the evening. Where these storms occur, brief IFR
conditions can be expected with strong and gusty winds./GG/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       75  93  72  94 /  28  26   9   6
Meridian      72  93  69  94 /  25  31   9   7
Vicksburg     75  94  72  95 /  27  20   8   6
Hattiesburg   74  94  73  94 /  41  43  19  22
Natchez       74  93  73  95 /  30  34  14  15
Greenville    75  93  72  93 /  19   5   1   2
Greenwood     73  93  70  93 /  27   6   1   2

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

NF/GG

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1129 AM CDT Sun Jun 13 2021

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025-034-035-040-
041-141630-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Bolivar-
Sunflower-Leflore-Washington-Humphreys-Issaquena-Sharkey-
1129 AM CDT Sun Jun 13 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, north central
Mississippi, northwest Mississippi, and west central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...The rest of Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...this afternoon through this evening

DANGEROUS HEAT
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...remainder of today

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible. Damaging wind gusts
will be the primary hazard with any severe storms that develop,
but some hail may also be possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Caution is advised for possible dangerous heat as heat index
values peak near 105 degrees. Heat exhaustion will be possible
with outdoor activity.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Dangerous heat with maximum heat index values near 105 degrees
is possible for extreme southeast Arkansas, portions of central
Mississippi, west central Mississippi, northwest Mississippi,
northeast Louisiana, and all of south central Mississippi on
Monday.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region rest of
today through tonight.

MSZ026>033-039-141630-
Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-Choctaw-Oktibbeha-
Noxubee-
1129 AM CDT Sun Jun 13 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi, east central Mississippi, north central Mississippi,
and northeast Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...The rest of Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...this afternoon through this evening

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible. Damaging wind gusts
will be the primary hazard with any severe storms that develop,
but some hail may also be possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region rest of
today through tonight.

MSZ036>038-043>046-049>052-056>058-141630-
Holmes-Attala-Winston-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-Rankin-
Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-
1129 AM CDT Sun Jun 13 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi, and east central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...The rest of Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...this afternoon through this evening

Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds to
60 mph and hail at least to the size of quarters are possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region rest of
today through tonight.

MSZ042-047-048-053>055-059>066-072>074-141630-
Yazoo-Warren-Hinds-Claiborne-Copiah-Simpson-Jefferson-Adams-
Franklin MS-Lincoln-Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-
Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
1129 AM CDT Sun Jun 13 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi, south central Mississippi, and west central
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...The rest of Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...this afternoon through this evening

DANGEROUS HEAT
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...remainder of today

Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds to
60 mph and hail at least to the size of quarters are possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Caution is advised for possible dangerous heat as heat index
values peak near 105 degrees. Heat exhaustion will be possible
with outdoor activity.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Dangerous heat with maximum heat index values near 105 degrees
is possible for extreme southeast Arkansas, portions of central
Mississippi, west central Mississippi, northwest Mississippi,
northeast Louisiana, and all of south central Mississippi on
Monday.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region rest of
today through tonight.

26

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
High...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong or violent tornadoes possible.
Moderate...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong tornadoes possible.
Enhanced...Severe thunderstorms are likely and tornadoes are
 possible.
Slight...Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are possible.
Marginal...Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible.

*DANGEROUS HEAT*
Extreme...Extreme heat is expected with peak heat index values
 in excess of 110 degrees for multiple days. Heat stroke continues
 to be a major concern.
Significant...Dangerous heat expected with peak heat index values
 in excess of 110 degrees. Heat stroke will be a significant
 concern.
Elevated...Dangerous heat likely with peak heat index values
 ranging from 106 to 110 degrees. Heat exhaustion will be likely.
Limited...Caution is advised for possible dangerous heat as
 heat index values peak near 105 degrees. Heat exhaustion will
 be possible.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Tropical page...
   https://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical?office=jan
National Hurricane Center Home Page...
   https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/
Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Storm Reports...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/

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