Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
244 PM CDT Wed Jun 2 2021

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Tomorrow...

An upper level trough centered across the plains with an associated
frontal boundary has brought the ArkLaMiss a very moist set-up. This
is a summertime like pattern that we are in and this unstable
pattern will stick around through tomorrow as well. Showers and
storms(some with embedded thunder) will be the case through this
evening. There is a chance for a strong storm or 2 to occur across
the south/east before the day is over with but widespread strong to
severe storms are not anticipated. With the atmosphere being as
moist as it is, there is a chance that some storms and or as
rainfall moves through the area, pockets of heavy rainfall will be
possible. Unlike yesterday where some areas out west received almost
2 inches, places across the south and east have not seen as much
rain fall so even if heavier rainfall occurs, flash flooding is not
a major concern.

Rain will continue into the overnight hours but should be light. By
tomorrow, the upper-level trough will swing across the Mid and Deep
South however, rain and storm chances will be confined to the south
and some parts of the east as the previous mentioned boundary pushes
through the region. Rain will start to tapper off from the south to
the east by tomorrow afternoon through early evening. Highs
tomorrow will range from the mid to upper 80s./JNE/

Thursday night through Next Wednesday...

For the Thu Night to Wed period our region will continue to see
the general flow regime featuring "cut off" energy and slow
evolution before E conus ridging builds. What does this mean in an
overall sense? For temps, look for near normal to slightly below
normal conditions. For precip, there will be a wet several days
mixed in where some flooding may become an issue. Right now that
appears to be in the Sun-Tue timeframe.

Taking a closer look, the "cut off" upper low pattern continues to
build support from the overall guidance. As a result, the trend we
discussed yesterday for lower PoPs continued and some values are
down a bit more from the prev forecast. This is mainly in the Thu
Night to Sat periods. This will have some impact on temps and the
warmer trend is still supported. The latest 12z guidance did warm a
bit from the prev run, but I trended closer to climo for most areas
with MaxT for both Fri & Sat. Friday morning the N half will be on
the cool side with low/mid 60s as a weak boundary will sag S more
into the area. We may see some fog develop due to sufficient
clearing/cooling and proximity to the boundary. Right now, not
confident enough to add into the official forecast.

By Sun, we should see the upper low begin to open up a bit and lift
out as a larger system enters the Pac NW. The E conus response to
this larger system will promote ridging and our lifting upper low
will be slow to do so and likely try and lift with more of a N/NNE
trajectory. This will likely spell a longer duration precip event for
most or part of our forecast area. Based on various operational guidance
and ensemble data, the Sun-Tue period seems to be primary timeframe
at this time. This is more of a heads up mention of the potential as
details this far out and with such a system are tough to get right 4-
6 days out. Temps during this time will likely remain below normal
with a day or so a good bit below normal.

With more mid/upper level ridging taking shape for mid to late week,
look for precip chances to lower and temps to trend warmer to more
seasonal readings. /CME/

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF discussion:
VCSH, VCTS, SHRA, and -RA will affect all sites except for GWO at
some point through out the TAF period. Ceilings will toggle back
and forth between VFR and MVFR. Rain coverage will continue
throughout the day but is expected to diminish tonight. However
low clouds will still be on tap and sites MEI, HBG, and PIB will
drop down to IFR briefly before daybreak tomorrow morning but
conditions will improve shortly after. Winds will be out of the
SSW and breezy during the day today, up to 10kts with possible
gusts up to 20kts for sites across the central and eastern parts
but winds should subside come early evening./JNE/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       68  86  67  85 /  51  19  11  24
Meridian      68  86  65  86 /  53  25  11  18
Vicksburg     68  86  66  86 /  38  19  16  30
Hattiesburg   69  86  68  85 /  59  44  17  31
Natchez       68  84  68  83 /  39  30  16  37
Greenville    66  85  64  87 /  27   7   9  15
Greenwood     68  85  64  87 /  53   8  12  13

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

JNE/CME

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
213 PM CDT Wed Jun 2 2021

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
031915-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Bolivar-
Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-
Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Winston-
Noxubee-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-
Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Claiborne-Copiah-
Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln-
Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
213 PM CDT Wed Jun 2 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, north central
Mississippi, and south central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Thursday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday night through Tuesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Tuesday.

14

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

No short term hazards expected.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Tropical page...
   https://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical?office=jan
National Hurricane Center Home Page...
   https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

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