Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
102 AM CDT Fri May 28 2021

.UPDATE...
Updated for 06Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF discussion:

An MCS will continue heading toward northwest portions of the
forecast area during the predawn hours, diminishing some as it
does so, and TSRA intensity is not expected to be all that great
by the time it reaches the GLH/GWO area. The system will weaken
further and be even less impactful for sites farther to the
east/south. Ceilings will likely drop to MVFR category with
visbility briefly reduced to IFR category as we go through the
early morning hours. By afternoon, MVFR/VFR conditions will be
prevalent, and scattered SHRA/TSRA could redevelop with daytime
heating along the remnant outflow boundary. This activity would
mainly impact along/southeast of the JAN/GTR corridor. /EC/

&&

.DISCUSSION...Updating to add Marginal threat in the NW for late
tonight and to increase PoPs for NW as well due to propagation of
convective system.

Currently, linear MCS underway across the Souther Plains with trends
showing bowing segment evolving over e-central OK. There are some
outflow dominant parts to this system, one in NE AR and the other in
central OK. Latest hi-res (prev runs as well) show this but also
capture the bowing segment. All in all, consensus is handling this
evolution well and indicate that a dense cold pool (sfc theta e diff
of 20-25K across cold pool) with damaging wind potential will grow
upscale and emanate from the bowing segment. This should allow the
MCS to reach "mature stage" later this evening, then begin a waning
stage as it reaches our NW forecast area. That being said, the
momentum generated looks to be enough to support a decent sized area
of 45-60 mph winds moving SE across S AR and getting into our NW in
the 2-4am timeframe. I do expect wind gust to diminish with time due
to limiting deep convective support to sustain the cold pool. Thus
the window for damaging winds is small and confined to our NW. Due
to this, I added the Marginal risk as SPC has shown to cover this
wind threat. Looks like after 5-6 am, winds should diminish enough
to not be a threat. Additionally, due to this progression and more
SE push, needed to increase PoPs in the 3-9am time.

Lastly, concerning the Marginal risk for Friday. Trends from
afternoon hi-res guid as well as the latest 00z HRRR, show the
progression of the cold pool and remnant complex will wipe out
potential for Friday afternoon. I expect the risk to be removed and
afternoon PoPs to be reduced quite a bit with the next forecast
package. Even if some convection can be supported in the afternoon,
instability looks to be a limiting factor and supportive of typical
lower end summer convection. /CME/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       70  84  60  78 /   6  76   8  12
Meridian      68  88  60  80 /   4  58  11  10
Vicksburg     69  84  62  78 /  21  82   9  15
Hattiesburg   68  89  65  82 /   1  42  17  18
Natchez       70  84  63  78 /   8  74  13  21
Greenville    68  84  58  74 /  79  76   5   7
Greenwood     69  83  57  74 /  47  87   5   6

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
715 PM CDT Thu May 27 2021

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-023-MSZ018-019-034-290015-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Franklin LA-Bolivar-Sunflower-Washington-
715 PM CDT Thu May 27 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, and northwest Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Friday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...Tonight

Tonight, isolated severe thunderstorms are possible between 2 and
5 am. Some thunderstorms could produce damaging wind gusts.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday night through Wednesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region tonight.

LAZ024>026-MSZ030>033-037>039-042>066-072>074-290015-
Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Clay-Lowndes-Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Attala-
Winston-Noxubee-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-Warren-
Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Claiborne-Copiah-Simpson-
Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln-Lawrence-
Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
715 PM CDT Thu May 27 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, central Mississippi, northeast Mississippi, and south
central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Friday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...Friday

Friday, isolated severe thunderstorms are possible during the
afternoon. Some thunderstorms could produce damaging wind gusts.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday night through Wednesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region Friday.

LAZ016-MSZ025>029-035-036-040-041-290015-
Madison LA-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Humphreys-
Holmes-Issaquena-Sharkey-
715 PM CDT Thu May 27 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, central Mississippi, north central Mississippi, and
west central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Friday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday night through Wednesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Wednesday.

36

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
High...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong or violent tornadoes possible.
Moderate...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong tornadoes possible.
Enhanced...Severe thunderstorms are likely and tornadoes are
 possible.
Slight...Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are possible.
Marginal...Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/
Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Storm Reports...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
242 AM CDT Fri May 28 2021

MSZ018-280830-
Bolivar MS-
242 AM CDT Fri May 28 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN BOLIVAR COUNTY UNTIL
330 AM CDT...

At 241 AM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
near Trusten Holder WMA, or 11 miles north of Rosedale, moving east
at 40 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Gunnison around 255 AM CDT.
  Deeson around 300 AM CDT.
  Shelby around 310 AM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Winstonville, Duncan
and Alligator.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3412 9066 3387 9066 3388 9106 3393 9101
      3395 9108 3397 9109 3400 9102 3397 9100
      3396 9097 3398 9096 3402 9099 3402 9090
      3408 9087 3410 9088 3409 9092 3412 9095
TIME...MOT...LOC 0741Z 272DEG 34KT 3402 9109

EC