Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
248 PM CDT Sun May 9 2021

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and tomorrow...
A cold front is still off to the nw and slowing down from prev
forecast approach. Out ahead of it, a quick disturbance is
rippling across the Gulf Coast states, kicking off showers and
thunderstorms. Given the cloud cover across the region that is
partially due to some of the convection to the west...instability
is a little somewhat inconsistent, though the near term mesoscale
analysis hints at a few hours of SBCAPE values in the 2000-2500
J/kg range if the showers can tap into it. Deep layer shear is
brief, but would help with steep mid level lapse rates in creating
a severe weather threat, with wind and hail the main concern. Even
though a tornado cannot be ruled out...the shear profiles become
less concerning with time. The cold front should be invof SE AR
and the northern part of the forecast area towards sunset as the
lifting mechanism shifts to the leading edge of the advancing
airmass. Showers and thunderstorms along the front start to
advance through the forecast area into the early evening. The
severe threat is conditional on several aspects...the first being
how turned over the airmass is by this early afternoon
convection. Also, the showers and thunderstorms in the latest runs
of the HRRR and to some extent the NAMNest transition into more of
a flooding/heavy rain concern as the front slows and the boundary
hangs up south of I-20. By tomorrow morning, solutions diverge
with the HRRR pushing the front through with the convection along
the coast by morning and scattered convection behind it. But the
NAMNest is a little more aggressive with convection. The flooding
concern will be increasing, but the FFG in the near term is in
excess of 3-4 inches in the 3 hr. So...going into
tomorrow/tomorrow night... the next round of storms will
potentially see a higher risk/potential headlines depending on
location of the highest rainfall today/where the front slows. All
in all, a stormy couple of days are forecast with a marginal risk
of severe weather across the southern two thirds of the forecast
area given the available moisture and series of agitated waves in
the westerly flow.

Monday night through Saturday...
At 500mb, a mostly zonal pattern stays in place through the first
half of the week... starting to pick up more of a northwesterly flow
regime as a low ejects out of the nrn Rockies and dives into the
Midwest.  In that mostly zonal pattern, a series of disturbances
ripples across the southern half of the forecast area, invof the
remains of the frontal boundary from Monday evening.  Supported
aloft by the jet structure, severe storms once again are a concern
for Tuesday and Tuesday night...but similarly to Monday...much of
the available instability will be contingent on clearing/recovering
the airmass. With Monday through Tuesday night having the best
chances for convection with heavy rainfall in the same location
along and south of I-20...a flash flood concern will be
increasing... but much of that is a function of how much/where the
heaviest rainfall falls this afternoon/tonight.

GFS is a little quicker to clear out the precip by Wednesday
afternoon...finally starting to see a quicker resolution to the
stormy weather. However, the ECMWF is lingering precip through
Thursday morning.  High pressure builds back into the region for the
end of the week, with northerly surface winds keeping the
temperatures below normal for Thursday and Friday.  But overnight
Fri night...the ridge axis moves to the east, setting up southerly
flow and a warming trend through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF discussion:
All sites are VFR early this afternoon, but showers and
thunderstorms will move into the GLH/GWO sites this afternoon. The
storms will move from west to east this afternoon through tonight
and as the storms move east, TAF sites will become MVFR/IFR.
Expect IFR/LIFR conditions overnight as low clouds persist. The
winds will be gusty out of the south this afternoon, but will
become weaker outside of thunderstorms this evening through
the overnight hours./15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       65  77  61  73 /  73  71  50  76
Meridian      64  78  60  73 /  64  80  43  67
Vicksburg     64  75  61  73 /  75  62  55  76
Hattiesburg   67  80  66  80 /  69  89  35  81
Natchez       66  78  63  76 /  71  75  39  79
Greenville    57  66  57  68 /  92  30  55  53
Greenwood     59  69  57  68 /  83  37  51  52

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

HJS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
557 AM CDT Sun May 9 2021

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-MSZ018-019-025>027-034-035-040-041-
101100-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Bolivar-Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Washington-Humphreys-
Issaquena-Sharkey-
557 AM CDT Sun May 9 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, north central
Mississippi, northwest Mississippi, and west central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Enhanced
TIMING...Today through Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Today through Tonight

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Today

Southerly winds could be strong and gusty today. Severe weather
is expected along with the possibility of heavy rainfall during
the afternoon and evening.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)
(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)
(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible Monday and
Tuesday, especially during the afternoon and evening.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today
through Tuesday night.

LAZ023-025-MSZ029-030-032-033-037-038-044-045-050-101100-
Franklin LA-Tensas-Webster-Clay-Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Attala-Winston-
Leake-Neshoba-Scott-
557 AM CDT Sun May 9 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, central Mississippi, east central Mississippi, north
central Mississippi, and northeast Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...Today through Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Today through Tonight

Severe weather and heavy rainfall will be possible mainly during
the afternoon and evening.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)
(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible Monday and
Tuesday, especially during the afternoon and evening.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today
through Tuesday night.

LAZ016-MSZ028-036-042-043-047>049-101100-
Madison LA-Montgomery-Holmes-Yazoo-Madison MS-Warren-Hinds-Rankin-
557 AM CDT Sun May 9 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, central Mississippi, north central Mississippi, and
west central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...Today through Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Today through Tonight

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Today

Southerly winds could be strong and gusty today. Severe weather
and heavy rainfall will be possible during the afternoon and
evening.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)
(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)
(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible Monday and
Tuesday, especially during the afternoon and evening.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today
through Tuesday night.

LAZ024-026-MSZ031-053-054-059>061-101100-
Catahoula-Concordia-Lowndes-Claiborne-Copiah-Jefferson-Adams-
Franklin MS-
557 AM CDT Sun May 9 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, central Mississippi, northeast Mississippi, and
southwest Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...Today through Tonight

Severe weather and heavy rainfall will be possible mainly this
afternoon and evening.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possibly Monday and Tuesday,
mainly during the afternoon and evening.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today
through Tuesday night.

MSZ039-046-051-052-055>058-062>066-072-073-101100-
Noxubee-Kemper-Newton-Lauderdale-Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-
Lincoln-Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-
557 AM CDT Sun May 9 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi, east central Mississippi, south central Mississippi,
and southeast Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...Today through Tonight

Severe weather will be possible from this afternoon into the
evening.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible Monday and Tuesday,
especially during the afternoon and evening.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today
through Tuesday night.

MSZ074-101100-
Forrest-
557 AM CDT Sun May 9 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible Monday and Tuesday,
especially during the afternoon and evening.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region Monday
through Tuesday night.

20

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
High...Significant severe thunderstorms are expected.
Moderate...Severe storms expected with significant
 severe weather possible.
Enhanced...Severe storms expected.
Slight...Severe storms possible.
Marginal...Isolated severe storms possible.

*FLOODING*
Extreme...Confident in significant flooding.
Significant...Significant flooding possible.
Elevated...Confident in flooding.
Limited...Flooding possible.

*NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS*
Extreme...Sustained winds 50 mph or greater or wind gusts 65 mph
 or greater.
Significant...Sustained winds 40-49 mph or wind gusts 58-64 mph.
Elevated...Sustained winds 30-39 mph or wind gusts 45-57 mph.
Limited...Sustained winds 20-29 mph or wind gusts 30 to 44 mph.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/
Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Storm Reports...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/
...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR FLOODING ISSUES...

Current Watches and Warnings...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe_HeavyRain

Observed Precipitation Images...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/precipmaps

River Forecast Center...
   https://www.weather.gov/lmrfc/
Significant River Flood Outlook...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html
Day 1 through 3 Excessive Rainfall...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml
Excessive Rainfall Discussion...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpferd.html
Day 1 through 7 QPF...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml
QPF Discussion...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpfpfd.html

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
148 PM CDT Sun May 9 2021

LAZ015-091915-
Richland LA-
148 PM CDT Sun May 9 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WESTERN RICHLAND PARISH UNTIL
215 PM CDT...

At 148 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
near Buckner, or 12 miles west of Mangham, moving east at 40 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Alto around 200 PM CDT.
  Mangham, Start and Archibald around 205 PM CDT.
  Rayville around 210 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
northeastern Louisiana.

LAT...LON 3233 9201 3236 9201 3242 9198 3245 9195
      3259 9165 3233 9174 3233 9176 3224 9177
      3222 9180 3222 9198 3225 9200 3225 9199
      3226 9200 3227 9199 3228 9202 3229 9203
TIME...MOT...LOC 1848Z 249DEG 33KT 3233 9198

DB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
229 PM CDT Sun May 9 2021

LAZ015-016-023-025-092015-
Tensas LA-Madison LA-Richland LA-Franklin LA-
229 PM CDT Sun May 9 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT TENSAS...MADISON...EASTERN
RICHLAND AND EASTERN FRANKLIN PARISHES UNTIL 315 PM CDT...

At 229 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking strong thunderstorms
along a line extending from near Delhi to 6 miles northwest of
Newlight to near Wisner. Movement was east at 40 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Waverly around 235 PM CDT.
  Tendal around 240 PM CDT.
  Somerset around 250 PM CDT.
  Afton and Mansford around 255 PM CDT.
  Newellton, St. Joseph, Lake Bruin and Omega around 300 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by these storms include Richmond.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
northeastern Louisiana.

LAT...LON 3220 9157 3251 9153 3254 9128 3254 9113
      3256 9111 3254 9108 3254 9110 3248 9111
      3245 9107 3244 9102 3224 9105 3220 9116
      3214 9117 3213 9109 3207 9116 3191 9120
      3189 9160 3197 9160 3197 9165 3194 9167
TIME...MOT...LOC 1929Z 265DEG 35KT 3249 9147 3219 9148 3196 9159

TW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
301 PM CDT Sun May 9 2021

LAZ016-MSZ040-047-092045-
Madison LA-Warren MS-Issaquena MS-
301 PM CDT Sun May 9 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN MADISON PARISH...
CENTRAL WARREN AND SOUTH CENTRAL ISSAQUENA COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM
CDT...

At 301 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
near Tallulah, moving east at 40 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Redwood around 330 PM CDT.
  Bovina around 335 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Mound and Delta.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
west central Mississippi.

LAT...LON 3252 9110 3255 9073 3235 9070 3234 9071
      3233 9070 3232 9071 3230 9070 3231 9104
      3244 9102 3245 9107 3248 9111
TIME...MOT...LOC 2001Z 264DEG 35KT 3237 9115

TW